Nova Scotia Election, 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

Regional Results

Cape Breton
PC: 43
Lib: 38
NDP: 19

Halifax
Lib: 43
NDP: 31
PC: 26

North
Lib: 56
PC: 23
NDP: 19

West
Lib: 48
PC :28
NDP: 22

Kind of surprised how well the Tories are doing in Halifax and poorly they are doing on the North Shore.

Forum Research released a poll. Shows a different story on the regional level. Overall result the same.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/10/nova-scotia-2013-election-day-projection.html

32-11-8

[minionofmidas]

Prediction time

Liberal: 16
NDP: 17
PC: 18
[/quote]
Just in order to collect crazyness accolades in case a crazy result happens.

Which is nowhere near as unlikely as it should be.

[lilTommy]

The conservatism in Nova Scotia is very much of the big government variety so the free market national party isn't popular here.

Interesting; so are they mostly conservative in a social sense? Conservative populists?

Red Tories


It's kind of hard to explain since there isn't really an American equivalent, but the major features are that they're pro-welfare state, pro-monarchy, and very small-c conservative.

That sort of conservatism is huge in Atlantic Canada, especially in Nova Scotia. The most prominent modern Red Tory, Robert Stanfield was Premier of Nova Scotia for 11 years and nearly became Prime Minister.

EDIT: They also have a protectionist streak.

Whats interesting about the polling, is that if what you say is true, this gov't should be polling better cause i find they are being just that, a very red tory gov't. They have focused on the economy (lowest unemployment rate in the Atlantic at 8.7% in September) and brought in a balanced budget(fiscal conservatism); also have instituted corporate welfare to save & bring in new jobs (interventionism)... I have a feeling if this gov't were a Liberal or PC one, they would not be trailling so badly.
A good blog write up here: http://stephenkimber.com/2013/10/what-did-the-ndp-do-to-deserve-its-electoral-fate
I'm both excited and terrified about tonight's results

[DC Al Fine]

The conservatism in Nova Scotia is very much of the big government variety so the free market national party isn't popular here.

Interesting; so are they mostly conservative in a social sense? Conservative populists?

Red Tories


It's kind of hard to explain since there isn't really an American equivalent, but the major features are that they're pro-welfare state, pro-monarchy, and very small-c conservative.

That sort of conservatism is huge in Atlantic Canada, especially in Nova Scotia. The most prominent modern Red Tory, Robert Stanfield was Premier of Nova Scotia for 11 years and nearly became Prime Minister.

EDIT: They also have a protectionist streak.

Whats interesting about the polling, is that if what you say is true, this gov't should be polling better cause i find they are being just that, a very red tory gov't. They have focused on the economy (lowest unemployment rate in the Atlantic at 8.7% in September) and brought in a balanced budget(fiscal conservatism); also have instituted corporate welfare to save & bring in new jobs (interventionism)... I have a feeling if this gov't were a Liberal or PC one, they would not be trailling so badly.
A good blog write up here: http://stephenkimber.com/2013/10/what-did-the-ndp-do-to-deserve-its-electoral-fate
I'm both excited and terrified about tonight's results

The NDP got burned on a number of rural issues that Kimber left out. The economy appears to be ok relative to the rest of Atlantic Canada but it's more of a case of the Halifax booming and everywhere else doing poorly. Your typical rural Nova Scotian has done worse since 2009 than your typical rural New Brunswicker.

I'm not really surprised that the NDP are doing badly in rural areas. What is surprising is how bad they're doing in Halifax, which is where I'd agree with Kimber.

[Hatman 🍁]

BTW, fun fact: The best bellwether in the province is Eastern Shore. Voted for the winner since 1970. I have it going Tory though!

[minionofmidas]

BTW, fun fact: The best bellwether in the province is Eastern Shore. Voted for the winner since 1970. I have it going Tory though!

*points at own "prediction"*

[lilTommy]

The conservatism in Nova Scotia is very much of the big government variety so the free market national party isn't popular here.

Interesting; so are they mostly conservative in a social sense? Conservative populists?

Red Tories


It's kind of hard to explain since there isn't really an American equivalent, but the major features are that they're pro-welfare state, pro-monarchy, and very small-c conservative.

That sort of conservatism is huge in Atlantic Canada, especially in Nova Scotia. The most prominent modern Red Tory, Robert Stanfield was Premier of Nova Scotia for 11 years and nearly became Prime Minister.

EDIT: They also have a protectionist streak.

Whats interesting about the polling, is that if what you say is true, this gov't should be polling better cause i find they are being just that, a very red tory gov't. They have focused on the economy (lowest unemployment rate in the Atlantic at 8.7% in September) and brought in a balanced budget(fiscal conservatism); also have instituted corporate welfare to save & bring in new jobs (interventionism)... I have a feeling if this gov't were a Liberal or PC one, they would not be trailling so badly.
A good blog write up here: http://stephenkimber.com/2013/10/what-did-the-ndp-do-to-deserve-its-electoral-fate
I'm both excited and terrified about tonight's results

The NDP got burned on a number of rural issues that Kimber left out. The economy appears to be ok relative to the rest of Atlantic Canada but it's more of a case of the Halifax booming and everywhere else doing poorly. Your typical rural Nova Scotian has done worse since 2009 than your typical rural New Brunswicker.

I'm not really surprised that the NDP are doing badly in rural areas. What is surprising is how bad they're doing in Halifax, which is where I'd agree with Kimber.

I can see that; i found some issues "In southwestern Nova Scotia, a decision to scrap an annual provincial subsidy of $6 million for a ferry service to Maine... and measures to rein in spending, including a decision to withdraw from a seven-year funding agreement with municipalities..." The Ferry service would be re-started (obviously a political move); the other is much more impactful and i could see causing huge issues.
But the NDP have also been actively trying to improve the rural economy: "Trenton there was a deal to resurrect the former TrentonWorks railcar plant into a wind farm parts manufacturer. Financial help for environmental initiatives at a pulp and paper plant in neighbouring Pictou and development of a new provincial jail in Thorburn"..

http://contrarian.ca/index.php?s=what+the+ndp+did+right Here is a comprehensive of the 6 things done right and 6 things done wrong, expanding more i think on your comments DC AL...

So Hatman... your already calling your prediction wrong then?

[Hatman 🍁]

The conservatism in Nova Scotia is very much of the big government variety so the free market national party isn't popular here.

Interesting; so are they mostly conservative in a social sense? Conservative populists?

Red Tories


It's kind of hard to explain since there isn't really an American equivalent, but the major features are that they're pro-welfare state, pro-monarchy, and very small-c conservative.

That sort of conservatism is huge in Atlantic Canada, especially in Nova Scotia. The most prominent modern Red Tory, Robert Stanfield was Premier of Nova Scotia for 11 years and nearly became Prime Minister.

EDIT: They also have a protectionist streak.

Whats interesting about the polling, is that if what you say is true, this gov't should be polling better cause i find they are being just that, a very red tory gov't. They have focused on the economy (lowest unemployment rate in the Atlantic at 8.7% in September) and brought in a balanced budget(fiscal conservatism); also have instituted corporate welfare to save & bring in new jobs (interventionism)... I have a feeling if this gov't were a Liberal or PC one, they would not be trailling so badly.
A good blog write up here: http://stephenkimber.com/2013/10/what-did-the-ndp-do-to-deserve-its-electoral-fate
I'm both excited and terrified about tonight's results

The NDP got burned on a number of rural issues that Kimber left out. The economy appears to be ok relative to the rest of Atlantic Canada but it's more of a case of the Halifax booming and everywhere else doing poorly. Your typical rural Nova Scotian has done worse since 2009 than your typical rural New Brunswicker.

I'm not really surprised that the NDP are doing badly in rural areas. What is surprising is how bad they're doing in Halifax, which is where I'd agree with Kimber.

So Hatman... your already calling your prediction wrong then?

One thing we can bet on! Actually, my projection will be wrong.

[DC Al Fine]

Grenier's prediction



The most important thing to remember is that there are a lot of close seats. If the Liberals stumble even a little, the PC's and NDP have the potential to force a minority.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my rather pessimistic prediction

Lib: 38
NDP: 7
PC: 6

[DL]

I have yet to hear any explanation as to what the Nova Scotia NDP has done that has been so unpopular as to merit losing this way. No major scandals, no economic meltdown...the worst thing you can say about them is that they are boring and haven't done anything that could be considered a "signature achievement" or real legacy - but most governments don't.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The old NDP error of trying to be too much like a standard issue 'responsible' government, which was even a factor (amongst many others, granted) in the fiasco that was the Rae government. Gradualism is fine (certain provincial NDP governments have been particularly good examples of it working), but the point is that you are actually trying to change things. Slowly.

[DL]

Being "boring" and responsible seems to work well for the NDP in Manitoba - they have won 4 terms now and it also worked well for the NDP in Saskatchewan 1991-2007.

I totally get that some people might be disillusioned that the NDP didn't bring about a socialist revolution in one term in Nova Scotia...but i just don't see what they've done that merits losing almost half their vote from last time.

With Bob Rae's government, they came to power just as a massive recession hit, ran up a stratospheric deficit, had lots of incompetent cabinet ministers who had to resign AND had a totally break-up with the party base over the "social contract" (sic.)....nothing has happened in Nova Scotia that is remotely comparable to any of that. So, I'm back to wondering what has happened.

[DC Al Fine]

Being "boring" and responsible seems to work well for the NDP in Manitoba - they have won 4 terms now and it also worked well for the NDP in Saskatchewan 1991-2007.

I totally get that some people might be disillusioned that the NDP didn't bring about a socialist revolution in one term in Nova Scotia...but i just don't see what they've done that merits losing almost half their vote from last time.

With Bob Rae's government, they came to power just as a massive recession hit, ran up a stratospheric deficit, had lots of incompetent cabinet ministers who had to resign AND had a totally break-up with the party base over the "social contract" (sic.)....nothing has happened in Nova Scotia that is remotely comparable to any of that. So, I'm back to wondering what has happened.

I'm skeptical it will be a landslide. The Liberals have stumbled in the polls in the past few days and incumbents have been overperforming on election day. Should be a standard defeat IMO.

As for what they did wrong;

• They alienated their soft rural vote
• They pissed off their base with corporate welfare

Anyways, I'm off to an election party. Will post through the night.

[Hatman 🍁]

Atlantic Canadians are more prone to turning on governments, I think. At least recently. In any other province, the NDP government would not be in trouble, but Nova Scotians are a fickle bunch. And the voters there are extremely volatile. It looks like neither of the three parties have much of a base- again unlike other provinces.  That means we could theoretically see a complete whipeout of the NDP. Well, I don't see them losing Cape Breton Centre at least...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Being "boring" and responsible seems to work well for the NDP in Manitoba - they have won 4 terms now and it also worked well for the NDP in Saskatchewan 1991-2007.

But they are well established as a party-of-government in both provinces. Voters know what they stand for and where they stand and know what they're getting when they vote them in. I'm not against 'boring', but feel you should at least try to be 'boring' and something else. Cuts don't count, obviously. Appealing to 'good government' and little else isn't a great idea in the periphery.

Thinking further, it must be hard to do that with any credibility when there's been an expenses scandal. Though I well understand that Canadians are far more tolerant of lightweight corruption than is entirely comprehensible to me sometimes, so maybe not such a great thought.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is all just idle speculation from a distance, mind.

[trebor204]

CTV needs to fix its Leader board
For a while they listed the NDP twice (No Lib), now the LIB (No NDP) were listed twice

[DC Al Fine]

NDP in 3rd

[MaxQue]

It's an absolute disaster for NDP. Hopefully this will serve as a lesson to other NDPs.
Don't act like Red Tories when in power.

[DC Al Fine]

Maureen macdonald losing in Halifax Needham!

[MaxQue]

Too bad, the two decent parties lost (yes, I prefer PC to Liberals).

[RogueBeaver]

All the networks have called a Liberal government. NDP "shell-shocked" per CBC.

[DC Al Fine]

Dexter losing! NDP losing every Halifax seat.