FL: Nelson polls well against GOP frontrunner...

[Moooooo]

FL: Nelson Leads Harris in Poll

Senator Bill Nelson (D) beats Rep. Katherine Harris (R) 46-39% in a poll conducted by GOP firm Strategic Vision. Harris leads with 38% for the Republican nomination.

From the Hill:

    A senior Democratic aide called Harris, famous for her role as Florida secretary of state during the 2000 presidential-election debacle, a polarizing figure who would galvanize Democrats. The aide added that Nelson had held 15 town hall meetings this week and would have little trouble raising the expected $18 million to $20 million needed to win reelection.

 Against the other leading Republicans, meanwhile, Nelson held statistically insignificant leads 2 percent in a race against Gallagher and 3 percent against Crist.
 
But for now, Harris is the only potential challenger who is seriously considered by Republicans in Florida and Washington to be mulling a Senate run. Gallagher and Crist are expected to run for governor.

Gallagher is the Attorney General, and Crist is Florida's Chief Financial Officer.

[nini2287]

More good news for the 2006 Senate (with other polls showing pickup possiblilities in VA, PA and RI) but once again it's still over 18 months out...

[Moooooo]

More good news for the 2006 Senate (with other polls showing pickup possiblilities in VA, PA and RI) but once again it's still over 18 months out...

 I know its a long way off, but I like posting the polls because it keeps this section of the forum active.  Anyway, Nelson better hope Harris is the candidate because he doesnt match up to well against the other GOP potentials.

[AuH2O]

hmm. First of all SV is now non-partisan and did pretty well in the 2004 elections. Second of all, that's actually not that great for an incumbent.

Third of all, Harris is indeed a polarizing figure... but Republicans outnumber Democrats in Florida and I think the number of outraged (over 2000) Democrats is lower than widely believed.

I like Crist... but the problem is, I don't see why he or Gallagher would run in the Senate primary if they thought they would lose, which they would. So I think Harris will waltz to the nomination and have a nasty battle with Nelson... toss-up.

[Moooooo]

hmm. First of all SV is now non-partisan and did pretty well in the 2004 elections. Second of all, that's actually not that great for an incumbent.

Third of all, Harris is indeed a polarizing figure... but Republicans outnumber Democrats in Florida and I think the number of outraged (over 2000) Democrats is lower than widely believed.

I like Crist... but the problem is, I don't see why he or Gallagher would run in the Senate primary if they thought they would lose, which they would. So I think Harris will waltz to the nomination and have a nasty battle with Nelson... toss-up.

Sounds about right to me.  Ill take your word on this one.  Do you see this race or the PA senate race being the most expensive, important, closely watched, race of the year?

[Jake]

Anyone else hoping Dave Weldon jumps into this one

[AuH2O]

hmm. First of all SV is now non-partisan and did pretty well in the 2004 elections. Second of all, that's actually not that great for an incumbent.

Third of all, Harris is indeed a polarizing figure... but Republicans outnumber Democrats in Florida and I think the number of outraged (over 2000) Democrats is lower than widely believed.

I like Crist... but the problem is, I don't see why he or Gallagher would run in the Senate primary if they thought they would lose, which they would. So I think Harris will waltz to the nomination and have a nasty battle with Nelson... toss-up.

Sounds about right to me.  Ill take your word on this one.  Do you see this race or the PA senate race being the most expensive, important, closely watched, race of the year?

There is no doubt that, to Democrats, getting Santorum is more important than defending Nelson. Tactically they are probably correct that it would be better for them to take PA than hold FL.

I'd give the expense edge to Florida, but that's because I think it's just a little costlier to run a statewide race there and there will be national attention. There will also be attention on PA of course, but to be honest, a lot of Republicans are not going to be stunned if a conservative is defeated in Pennslyvania.

Personally, I also give an edge to PA as being the preeminent race (as of now at least). It's important to note, however, that the PA race is not necessarily informative-- Casey Jr. is not your average Democrat. So if he wins, I don't think that tells us much except that he ran a better campaign than Santorum. If Harris wins, well, Democrats will be absolutely furious, but Nelson isn't too special and most Democrats don't care about him except for the numbers implication in the Senate.

Also, other races will become significant (or irrelevant) as potential candidates decide whether or not to run. Would Democrats really be happy if they got Santorum but lost 3 incumbents? It's not all about the high profile races.

[Keystone Phil]

I do want Harris as the nominee because I feel she can win the General and a Senator Katherine Harris would totally annoy the Dems.    She have the toughest time winning but it's worth it.

[Rob]

I do want Harris as the nominee because I feel she can win the General and a Senator Katherine Harris would totally annoy the Dems.    She have the toughest time winning but it's worth it.

Nominate her. She'll crash and burn. Not just because of 2000; she's a little crazy.

[Frodo]

If the Republican bigwigs were smart in all this, they would push Crist for the governor's nomination and influence Tom Gallagher to run for Senator (instead of governor) against Bill Nelson.

That is a ticket that could very realistically take over both spots.  Katherine Harris has too much Democrat hatred against her to win, imo, though I'm sure some Reps may disagree with me.

this question isn't directed at Sam Spade alone, and can be answered by anyone in the position to:

Representatives Cliff Stearn, Dave Weldon, and Mark Foley are also considering jumping into the Florida senate race against Bill Nelson (if they haven't already).  these i deem as more formidable both in terms of experience, and in terms of electability compared to Rep. Katherine Harris and one-term congressman Connie Mack (who is also considering running).

how do their chances of taking Sen. Bill Nelson's seat compare to each other?  who among them is best positioned to take his seat?   

[WalterMitty]

i like harris.

[A18]

Obviously if she gets the nomination, Nelson wins. Jeb Bush could beat her and him, though.

[No more McShame]

Jeb isn't going to run.  Harris would get crushed.  Hopefully someone will step up who can defeat her in the primary.

[AuH2O]

I don't think Harris would get crushed. I've seen no evidence of it... the polls certainly don't indicate it.

[No more McShame]

Yeah, crushed is probably a little strong but 7 points sounds about right in the current enviornment and that isn't exactly close.

[??????????]

I do want Harris as the nominee because I feel she can win the General and a Senator Katherine Harris would totally annoy the Dems.    She have the toughest time winning but it's worth it.

Nominate her. She'll crash and burn. Not just because of 2000; she's a little crazy.

Harris is more moderate then any of the other candidates for the GOP ticket that have been mentioned.

[Umengus]

Democrats win polls, Republicans win elections...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Democrats win polls, Republicans win elections...

What more can you say when the Republican is Katherine Harris?