Landrieu is a good fit for the state, period and she has the ability to hold the base, as well as get crossover support, which is very rare.
This is true, but Landrieu has the support of 23% of Republicans in this poll -- and she's still barely skimming the runoff line. So all Cassidy has to do to win is appeal to Republicans -- an easier task than other Republican challengers.
Plus, Louisiana trended Democratic in 2012, going R+11 down from R+13 in 2008, that means if she can have a good turnout operation, her floor is more elevated.
You're ignoring the elephant in the room, though -- R+11 is
a lot.Dardenne opted to run for governor instead of taking on Landrieu speaks for itself, he was the stronger candidate.
Dardenne has been obviously aiming for the Governorship for some time now. Sometimes politicians' goals are more specific than just "promotion to whatever is available" -- not everyone is Mark Darr.
I'm not denying that Landrieu is pretty definitely favored here -- unlike Pryor or Begich, she has some room to maneuver/for error, and she certainly doesn't start out in a hole like in the open seats. But this race is winnable for Cassidy and there's a clear way to do it.
As for Illinois, the GOP won't have Quinn to kick around anymore. Once he is out of the way and Bill Daley, takes office, business start to develop, the Dems will rebound in Illinois.
Considering Bill Daley is only a 50/50 bet to beat Quinn, and that they're both polling behind Republican frontrunners Dan Rutherford and Kirk Dillard, that's a pretty risky bet to make. Though obviously in a state this blue Republicans are nowhere near any kind of safe bet either.
I don't know much about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania politics but Toomey was only ahead of Sestak by 4 pts, and Sestak isn't in the media, and nor is Feingold.
Pennsylvania is trending Republican and Toomey is getting a lot of positive reviews, while Democrats have no obvious path to challenge Johnson's overwhelming fundraising superiority. Wisconsin isn't California -- Republicans can and do regularly persuade it to vote for them.
Once the campaign begins, the race in those three states will tighten.
Illinois, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin? Yeah, probably, but that won't be for a while.
But I was referring to the grip the incumbent parties have for the forseeable future: GOP on the House and Dems on the Senate.
The first one is much more solid, since it's built on friendly territory (whereas the Democratic Senate majority is in large part built on people like Mary Landrieu, who must watch their backs constantly -- and they're not all as competent as Landrieu).
Changing tack, though, it speaks to what a remarkable politician Landrieu is that she can command a lead like this in a state like that.