LA-PPP: Landrieu up 10

[Person Man]

So if West Viriginia, Montana and South Dakota fall into place because of retirements and Begich and Pryor get their asses kicked, the control of the Senate might be decided in a runoff election? That would be an interesting scenario. Otherwise, if Begich or Pryor stick around, I'd expect Landrieu to win any runoff as it would be a referendum as her as an incumbent against a fragmented field and not as much a generic R vs generic D election.

[Person Man]

So our assumptions seem to be correct: Landrieu has a high-40s floor, only Pub pathway is full nationalization by forcing a runoff for the whole senate. My prediction: whoever wins does so by 3 or less.

[Person Man]

For the Republicans in 2014 there just isn't much low-hanging fruit in the Senate to be picked off. Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia may offer excellent opportunities for Republican pick-ups in the Senate... but let's put it this way: Mary Landrieu is far safer a bet for re-election than Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minority Leader. The open seat in Georgia doesn't look so great for Republicans, either. 

You make it seem as if the Republicans may blow their chances at the senate for the foreseeable future unless they have Morning in America v2.0 in 2016.