SC-Gov: Haley running, will formalize Aug. 26

[RogueBeaver]

At a rally with Jindal, Perry and Walker in Greenville.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I would make a snide comment about Governor Sheheen, but if Mark Sanford could win by 9 points in a district slightly to the state's right, I'm not getting my hopes up.

[NewYorkExpress]

Haley runs, she wins she backs out... Governor DeMint?

[Maxwell]

I would make a snide comment about Governor Sheheen, but if Mark Sanford could win by 9 points in a district slightly to the state's right, I'm not getting my hopes up.

Sheheen is a stronger candidate than colbert's sister, evidenced by his ability to get within 4 points in the most Republican year in recent memory in a pretty Republican state.

[ElectionsGuy]

Could she get primaried? Anyway the floor for republicans in South Carolina is about 47%, and no matter how strong Sheheen is, it will be extremely hard for him to win, this is still a race to watch though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It is possible because as Sanford's critique about the legislature went, there is a group of "appropriators" in the assembly, many of whom are former Democrats who are solidly anchored on the social issues and they might try to take her out. SC politics is rather rough and tumble.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I don't see any hint of her facing a serious primary challenge or having difficulty getting reelected in 2014.  She has not proven to be as bad a governor as Mark Sanford was.  Granted, there are better choices than her, both within and without her party,  However, the only way I don't see her serving out a full eight years now is if she goes to Washington in 2017 as the Vice President or a Cabinet member.

The Democrats would be better served trying to find someone who could win one of the down-ballot offices.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

If her job approval carries over to the campaign, I think we can chalk up a gain for the Dems here.  Even if she does lose, though, I wouldn't be all that sad.

[hopper]

Could she get primaried? Anyway the floor for republicans in South Carolina is about 47%, and no matter how strong Sheheen is, it will be extremely hard for him to win, this is still a race to watch though.

I thought if she did get primaried it would have been by Tim Scott but since Scott is in Demints former US Senate Seat it won't happen. No other SC Republican has the name recognition except for Lindsey Graham and he won't run for Governor. Bob Inglis got swept out by the Tea Party wave in 2010 when he got blown out in a run-off election by now congressmen Trey Gowdy.

[hopper]

It is possible because as Sanford's critique about the legislature went, there is a group of "appropriators" in the assembly, many of whom are former Democrats who are solidly anchored on the social issues and they might try to take her out. SC politics is rather rough and tumble.

That's true SC is sort of a toned down version of  NJ or Illinois of the south politics wise if you will. The Social Issues nah even Southern Democrats are moderate to conservative in that area. The Southeast part of SC is the most left-wing on social issues that your gonna get in that state with Charleston being located there.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Hard to see her losing, even if she isn't terribly popular.

[illegaloperation]

Hard to see her losing, even if she isn't terribly popular.

I am not so sure about that.

Vincent Sheheen did very well in a Republican state in a very Republican year (2010).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It is possible because as Sanford's critique about the legislature went, there is a group of "appropriators" in the assembly, many of whom are former Democrats who are solidly anchored on the social issues and they might try to take her out. SC politics is rather rough and tumble.

That's true SC is sort of a toned down version of  NJ or Illinois of the south politics wise if you will. The Social Issues nah even Southern Democrats are moderate to conservative in that area. The Southeast part of SC is the most left-wing on social issues that your gonna get in that state with Charleston being located there.

The point is not that the other side is any less socially conservative tough. They are the Tea Partier/Club for Growthers after all and Haley is one of them to a large extent. It is just that the other side love their pork and use the social issues as cover. Think Nathan Deal versus Karen Handel in Georgia in the 2010 GOP runoff. Deal is a far right socially, former Democrat Porker, whereas Handel (though suspect on social issues is hardly a moderate by any means) was a fiscal conservative supported by Sarah Palin, just like Haley. Therefore I don't see Scott or DeMint challenging her.

This harkens back to an old divide that use to occur in Democratic primaries in the South when you had bourbon business and middle class types versus Progressive/Populist types and though both were racist, they would often use segregationism as a way to get a leg up on each other even though there real divide was on economic issues. The former were the first to move away from segregationist politics (though definately against busing) and the first to join the Republicans, at a time when their numbers were exploding thanks to suburbanization and the growth of the metros from northern transplants. The latter group, largely in rural areas shifted two or three decades later and largely on the issues of god, guns and gays of the 80's, 90's and 2000's. Nathan Deal switched in 1995. Rodney Alexander in Louisiana switched in 2004 largely to keep the pork flowing in. Therefore you have a war so to speak between the limited gov't types of like the Gingrich/Sanford variety against these former Democrats who began to rise to power in the Bush/Delay era.

A new dynamic has come into play dividing the business types between those who want the Gov't, corporate welfare, infrastructure, pork and a steady supply of illegal and legal cheap labor largely represented by the Chamber of Commerce up against the Club For Growth/Tea Party types who don't want the goverment interferring. What you are seeing is that the former is coming to ally with the more populist types and porkers and you see that occuring to some extent with Graham save for some McCainist tendencies on the pork and in Georgia with Kingston save maybe for the immigration issue.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

How do Chamber of Commerce types ally with populists against the Tea Party?  Isn't the Tea Party populist, or do you mean it in a different sense?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

How do Chamber of Commerce types ally with populists against the Tea Party?  Isn't the Tea Party populist, or do you mean it in a different sense?

I meant populist in terms of like Mike Huckabee. I should have been more clear about that.

It is a rather new thing to be sure, but you see the COC endorsing infrastructure spending and so forth largely in reaction to the Tea Party intransigence.

[illegaloperation]

How do Chamber of Commerce types ally with populists against the Tea Party?  Isn't the Tea Party populist, or do you mean it in a different sense?

SC Chamber of Commerce endorses Vincent Sheheen over Nikki Haley.

[Consciously Unconscious]

I don't see Haley losing.  Her approval ratings have been improving, and I've already seen ads against Sheheen.  I  think she's been a fairly good governor.  The only way I wouldn't support her is if Trey Gowdy runs. 

[Morning in Atlas]

I don't see Haley losing.  Her approval ratings have been improving, and I've already seen ads against Sheheen.  I  think she's been a fairly good governor.  The only way I wouldn't support her is if Trey Gowdy runs. 

And this is the state that elected Mark Sanford.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Is it possible that Mark Sanford will seek the governorship (possibly winning it) in 2018 once Haley is term-limited ?

I can't see her going for the House, so she might wait until 2020 to seek the U.S. Senate seat if Graham retires.

[pretzel1998]

I think the race would be close like in 2010, but I think the Republican bend the state has will probably carry her over.

Vincent Sheheen would give her a tight race and polling shows that he is narrowly ahead but in the long run I think he faces a uphill race.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I can't see her going for the House, so she might wait until 2020 to seek the U.S. Senate seat if Graham retires.

I'd always thought there would be a good chance she'd run in 2016 since DeMint had indicated he wouldn't be running for reelection.  Of course, no chance of that now.

Haley running for the House in 2018 isn't as far fetched as one might think. She lives in the 2nd District. Joe Wilson will be 71 then and possibly interested in retiring.  His son Alan Wilson is now the Attorney General and is likely to run for Governor in 2018.  A quid pro quo of him retiring to make an open seat for Haley to win, in exchange for Haley's support for Alan to follow her as Governor is quite doable.   Depends on whether Graham has signaled whether he'll be running for reelection in 2020 by then.  If she knows she'd be vying for an open seat, she'd skip the House, but I don't see her contesting Graham if he decides to run for reelection in 2020, which he probably will.  She's only 41 now.  She can afford to wait and see if Graham retires in 2026 or 2032.

[hopper]

I don't see Haley losing.  Her approval ratings have been improving, and I've already seen ads against Sheheen.  I  think she's been a fairly good governor.  The only way I wouldn't support her is if Trey Gowdy runs. 

And this is the state that elected Mark Sanford.

Sanford was actually mentioned as a 2012 Presidential Candidate in Conservative Circles before the scandal happened. The scandal killed him as far as ever being POTUS even though he got elected back to the US House this year.

[hopper]

Is it possible that Mark Sanford will seek the governorship (possibly winning it) in 2018 once Haley is term-limited ?

I can't see her going for the House, so she might wait until 2020 to seek the U.S. Senate seat if Graham retires.

I don't think Sanford can get elected statewide again.

Yeah probably 2020 if Graham retires she will run for the seat but only if she gets re-elected next year.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Hopefully, Graham won't be needing to retire in 2020.

[Consciously Unconscious]

Hopefully, Graham won't be needing to retire in 2020.

I hope he retires.  I don't really like him.  I would much rather have Haley, or my own representative, Gowdy take the seat.  

I think Haley has a shot at national politics, especially if she wins a senate seat in 2020.  I think she might even be a good pick for vp in 2016.