What are the economic and political ramifications of the fracking boom?

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U.S. weekly oil production from 1992-Jan 2013


Actual and projected oil and natural gas production in the U.S. until 2012 and projected to 2014


Our biggest oil imports are from Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela.  Mexico recently slipped into 4th place.  But even as such, imports from all countries are falling and reached a 17 year low in February.

I can't see how this is anything but great news for the U.S.  With continued efficiency improvements that are keeping fuel use growth very low or even negative, our fossil fuel production is surging unlike any time since the 1960s... the last time we had serious quality of life increases for most Americans.

Climate doom and gloomism aside, we're headed in the right direction.

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I cant see how anything negative comes from this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LBjSXWQRV8

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What's your point?

The point is that while we scream and yell and debate about shoulda coulda wouldas regarding fracking which takes place mostly in unpopulated areas of the plains...

The Southwest is literally drawing down their reservoirs as part of normal water usage now.  That is... the great drawdown has already begun

The reservoirs were put there to control the water and provide a buffer during droughts.  But the explosive growth this taming of the Colorado has afforded has come to an end.  The Southwest now uses more water than drains into the Colorado river.  So even in average precipitation years, lake levels at Lake Powell and Mead are dropping.

Regardless of manmade global warming, the Pacific ocean is in a phase that steers storms away from the SW and northern Mexico, instead shunting them up towards Alaska, BC, and the Pac NW.

The problem is the desert SW still wants to grow.  But it literally can't now.  You have hit peak water... and so now you have a fixed amount of water that needs to be divied up between more and more people as people move there.

A couple more dry winters like the last two... and it will reach crisis proportions.

And fracking will continue providing energy independence for America, despite a few people in PA being able to light their water on fire.

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So my broad point was:  Worry about your own backyard first.

And actually the best point I can make is this:

People living in NV, AZ, or SoCal (or NM or west Texas or Colorado or Utah) should be supporting fracking heavily.

Because what is causing the drawdown of the reservoirs isn't actually water usage.  It's being drawn down to meet electricity demands.

If this continues for only a few more years, the amount of electricity will become limited by the limited water left in the reservoirs.  The flow of the Colorado might still be enough to quench the thirst of residents in the region... but you'll be increasingly relying on electricity powered by natural gas... which comes from, you guessed it... fracking.

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Climate doom and gloomism aside, we're headed in the right direction.

Well natural gas is a bright spot because unless I'm wrong we aren't really exporting  that the way we are exporting refined gasoline so despite the wishes of big oil we may actually be able to keep the price of natural gas low.

Refined gasoline won't fall in price until we have exported enough to drop prices on the global market.  I am not an expert but I don't see that happening any time soon.  In fact we are the low cost producer of refined gasoline and export it to Mexico!  So yeah Michelle Bachmann's lunacy about $2 gas is plain idiocy.

We're never going to impact global supply enough to do that, even with current production levels. There's certainly nothing stopping Saudi Arabia or Venezuela from cutting back output to boost prices.

As for natural gas, you have the infrastructure problem when it comes to exporting the stuff. Sure, you can ship it out in liquid form, but that costs money. Ultimately, the Russians are going to have the advantage of being connected to Asia, Europe and Africa by overland pipelines. I don't think allowing export of our supply is going to prohibitively raise domestic prices for that reason - we'll only be exporting so much.

As for the virtues of cheap natural gas, there are negative consequences to that too. You're killing the already weak Appalachian economy, not to mention the railroads that don't have carloads of coal to ship anymore.

Oh you bet your bottom dollar you do!  They're shipping oil now because of opposition to pipeline construction.

And is coal production falling all that much?

From what I've seen it seems we're just shipping our coal to Asia and Europe now.  Germany, with their absolutely retarded energy policy.. shot itself in the foot by shuttering nuclear plants... and are now burning American coal to make up the loss.

Meanwhile, Britain is converting coal plants to wood pellet burning plants... where are those wood pellets coming from?  Not from deforested Europe... but from American forests.  Europe's shortsighted "green" energy policy is deforesting America now.  Not long after they helped deforest the Amazon to grow soybeans for their eco-friendly vegan BS food.

The green energy movement is such a colossal joke in Europe.  Germany will never produce enough energy from wind and solar at a cost that doesn't cripple their economy.  And their kneejerk reactionary greens forced the removal of a low emissions, safe, clean source of energy (nuclear).

At the same time, the windmills are cranking out power on the high plains... to the tune that 17.5% of Minnesota's electricity comes from wind now.  (The rest comes from natural gas, coal, and nuclear)

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Meanwhile, Britain is converting coal plants to wood pellet burning plants... where are those wood pellets coming from?  Not from deforested Europe... but from American forests.  Europe's shortsighted "green" energy policy is deforesting America now.  Not long after they helped deforest the Amazon to grow soybeans for their eco-friendly vegan BS food.

Oh, I see.  This was meant to be a troll thread.  The United States is by no stretch of the imagination "deforested" or even close.  And the United States is the biggest consumer of wood in the world not Britain.  You should travel over there sometime.  Do you think they would think it is normal to build a house out of wood?  Get a grip man.  Only in America do people build entire houses out of wood.  From an ecological point of view British people would never do something that irresponsible.

What the hell are you even talking about?

Actually I have been to the UK and lived for a year in Salzburg, Austria where there still are forests (because they're protected and managed).

I don't think you understand how forestry works.  Trees are renewable.  And the beauty of building houses out of trees... you aren't burning the wood so the carbon stays locked in place for however long that house stands.

But that's not the point here.  The point here is that forests are being felled to turn the wood into pellets and ship it to the UK to burn in THEIR plants as an alternative to coal because they're trying to prevent like 0.0004C of warming by doing so.  It's batf**king insane.

If other Euro nations start doing this same thing, it's quickly going to tip the balance in America and we'll probably end up putting a stop to it.

So your cute criticism of me not understanding JUST HOW IRRESPONSIBLE IT WOULD BE FOR BRITS TO MAKE HOUSES OUT OF WOOD is actually your lack of knowledge (they don't have forests to fell to build their houses out of wood because they are using the land for growing grain crops)... and building their homes out of imported wood *might* still actually be more eco friendly even if you have to ship the wood in from elsewhere than building homes out of concrete, steel, or even bricks (which themselves require great carbon inputs).

A well maintained woodframe home will last just as long as one made out of carbon intensive, non-renewable materials you seem to advocate (from an eco point of view, of course )

If they can ship American trees to Britain to burn in power plants that literally sit on top of coal beds.. I'm sure they could import American lumber to build homes.

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Yeah here in northern MN the oil boom is having a noticeable impact... namely that lots of people are going out there to work on 2 weeks on, 2 weeks off rotations.  A friend from high school recently bought a new house here but works out in Williston.  A lot of people are doing this in the western and northern parts of MN... they want to live here and the nature of the work there allows them to work it out.

But it's great because the money he earns is being spent here... where prices aren't outrageous.. so it's really adding to the community.  Then he slogs it out working 16 hour days and sleeping in a camper for 2 weeks before coming home to his brand new house.

A friend's brother does road construction in the summer and has been in North Dakota pretty much all summer long for the past few years because the demand is so high.  He stays in a camper out there and comes home to his house here on the weekends.

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Wastefulness? What?

Do you know what gas flares are?  That's when they burn excess gas (that they get as a byproduct of other drilling/refining operations) just to get rid of it, because they don't want to bother transporting it to somewhere it can be used to productive effect.

It is the very definition of pure waste.

As wasteful as a field of windmills on a calm day?  Or snow covered solar panels? 

I agree, it is extremely stupid to simply flare off a valuable fuel for producing electricity... but even so I've seen natural gas bills plummet while electricity bills creep higher and higher due to more renewable energy mandates.

The green agenda is fine for upper middle class urban whites who can both afford and choose that kind of lifestyle.

It's actually funny to see the granola crowd gnash their teeth at the GOP for being obstructionists... when the green crowd pioneered the tactic.

Don't debate!  Litigate!