Do you think that CDU/CSU-FDP will ...

[Tender Branson]

Should be interesting.

The latest polls by the 2 main pollsters show CDU/CSU-FDP ahead by 47-45 and down by 45-48.

[Tender Branson]

Note:

This poll is only about "re-election in terms of seats", not a likely coalition.

What kind of coalition is eventually formed after the election, is not relevant here in this poll.

[DC Al Fine]

Nope. FDP will still scrape into the Bundestag, but their fall will be to for CDU-FDP to win a majority.

[minionofmidas]

Note:

This poll is only about "re-election in terms of seats", not a likely coalition.

What kind of coalition is eventually formed after the election, is not relevant here in this poll.

As if there were the slightest possibility of CDU-CSU-FDP not resulting from even a one-vote lead.

[ERvND]

Definitely. I predicted a CDU/CSU-FDP reelection as early as 2010, when they were at their absolute low. The reason: Germans tend to give their governments a "second chance" - see, e.g., Kohl's reelection in 1994 (actually his fourth chance) or the reelection of Red-Green in 2002.

Today, Merkel is even more popular than Schröder in 2002; this should be more than enough to bring them "over the top". The FDP is no concern, as it will always get enough loan votes from Merkel supporters.

[You kip if you want to...]

Definitely. I predicted a CDU/CSU-FDP reelection as early as 2010, when they were at their absolute low. The reason: Germans tend to give their governments a "second chance" - see, e.g., Kohl's reelection in 1994 (actually his fourth chance) or the reelection of Red-Green in 2002.

Today, Merkel is even more popular than Schröder in 2002; this should be more than enough to bring them "over the top". The FDP is no concern, as it will always get enough loan votes from Merkel supporters.

And Peer Steinbruck is about as electable as a bucket of sick.

[ZuWo]

Unless Steinbrück somehow loses his ability to speak for the entire rest of the election campaign, my answer is yes.

[Leftbehind]

Re-election. The opposition couldn't make it more easy for them if they tried.

[minionofmidas]

I'm not actually, like, quite entirely convinced that the national SPD leadership is not, indeed, trying.

[ERvND]

Sorry, but this talk about how "the opposition is to weak" or "the SPD doesn't even try" is baloney. To the contrary: Merkel is too strong, that's the point.

If you have a popular incumbent (and Merkel is as popular as you can get in a democratic system), there is not much the opposition can do. Attack her viciously - "They are slandering our beloved leader". Act kind and cautious - "Those boneless wimps don't even try."

An election, after all, is a vote about the government, not the opposition. If the government is popular enough, the people will renew its "contract". It's that simple. And it's a cheap shot to attack the SPD in this situation.

[Viewfromthenorth]

Sorry, but this talk about how "the opposition is to weak" or "the SPD doesn't even try" is baloney. To the contrary: Merkel is too strong, that's the point.

If you have a popular incumbent (and Merkel is as popular as you can get in a democratic system), there is not much the opposition can do. Attack her viciously - "They are slandering our beloved leader". Act kind and cautious - "Those boneless wimps don't even try."

An election, after all, is a vote about the government, not the opposition. If the government is popular enough, the people will renew its "contract". It's that simple. And it's a cheap shot to attack the SPD in this situation.

Yes, well, the SPD was almost guaranteed to lose this election, but Steinbrück is certainly not making the loss any *smaller*.

[You kip if you want to...]

Sorry, but this talk about how "the opposition is to weak" or "the SPD doesn't even try" is baloney. To the contrary: Merkel is too strong, that's the point.

If you have a popular incumbent (and Merkel is as popular as you can get in a democratic system), there is not much the opposition can do. Attack her viciously - "They are slandering our beloved leader". Act kind and cautious - "Those boneless wimps don't even try."

An election, after all, is a vote about the government, not the opposition. If the government is popular enough, the people will renew its "contract". It's that simple. And it's a cheap shot to attack the SPD in this situation.

Yes, well, the SPD was almost guaranteed to lose this election, but Steinbrück is certainly not making the loss any *smaller*.

Exactly. A competent leader would be doing well enough to get them in as a strong junior partner.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But isn't that defining so-called 'competence' by results, which is always a dubious practice? To go even further down the contrary route that I may or may not actually believe myself, Steinbrück has obviously not been perfect, but would anyone else who might have been prepared to volunteer actually be doing significantly better? So-called gaffes are rarely helpful, but their electoral impact can be overrated (c.f. 'Labour gain Rochdale') and its notable that the other opposition parties aren't exactly setting the electoral world on fire: if the main problem was Steinbrück's lack of 'competence' then you'd expect them to be doing so, even if they do have their own issues.

[You are responsible]

I honestly don't know, it could go either way.

The CDU's chances are probably overrated. Then again, the FDP is probably underrated.


This is what the users of SPIEGEL Online are thinking at the moment by the way (with the closest prediction winning a trip to Bali ):

CDU/CSU 38.0%
SPD 26.6%
Greens 14.2%
Left 7.2%
FDP 5.8%
Pirates 3.3%
AfD 2.6%

Seems plausible.