Alaska: the new Montana

[ElectionsGuy]

There are a lot of reasons to think Alaska could have democratic potential, its just not ready yet though. For one thing, Obama did really well with Native Alaskans along with all the other minority groups and also did better with whites, all demographic trends that could be temporary. According to my ranking system (where I rank states from Solid, Strong, Weak) Alaska went from Solid to Strong from 2008 to 2012. Alaska has been solid for some time, and this trend needs to be kept an eye on in the coming years to be validated as a ongoing trend. Although we can assume influx from liberal states will tilt the state more democratic, its not a safe assumption. Just because they're coming from liberal states doesn't mean that they themselves are going to liberal.

I disagree with your concept that Alaska is the new Montana however. I did a recent thread on why Montana is probably moving to the right and you rejected it. Montana and Alaska were about the same in 2012 results but the have very different characteristics. Alaska could be moving in a liberal direction, but as I mentioned above its certainly not ready to be a swing state. Its very hard for an Alaska democrat to get >50% of the vote right now, and Mark Begich almost acheived that goal in 2008, we'll see if he can do it in 2014.