2012 Guess of White Vote for Non-Exit Polled States (user search)
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  2012 Guess of White Vote for Non-Exit Polled States (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2012 Guess of White Vote for Non-Exit Polled States  (Read 4538 times)
eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
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« on: August 08, 2013, 04:47:50 AM »
« edited: August 08, 2013, 04:50:00 AM by eric82oslo »

What is your guess of the white vote (%) in these states based on 2008 exit polls?

Alaska - 65% McCain, 64% Romney
Hawaii - 70% Obama, 66% Obama
Texas - 73% McCain, 77% Romney
Utah - 66% McCain, 75% Romney
West Virginia - 57% McCain, 63% Romney

Reasonable? What do you think?


I think you underestimate Romney's loss in Alaska, and underestimate his gains in Texas, Utah and West Virginia. Probably overestimate his gains in Hawaii as well, although they make up such a tiny percentage of that state that it's hard to know.

Come to think of it, these numbers have to be doubled up when you count the winning margin, so it's not too unlikely actually. But I still disagree with the numbers on Alaska, Hawaii and Texas. My feeling says whites voted 78-83% Republican in Texas.
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