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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  2012 Guess of White Vote for Non-Exit Polled States
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Author Topic: 2012 Guess of White Vote for Non-Exit Polled States  (Read 3606 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: August 08, 2013, 03:34:32 am »
« edited: August 08, 2013, 11:01:31 am by Waukesha County »

What is your guess of the white vote (%) in these states based on 2008 exit polls?

Alaska - 65% McCain, 64% Romney
Arkansas - 68% McCain, 72% Romney
Delaware - 53% Obama, 50% Romney
D.C. - 86% Obama, 82% Obama
Georgia - 76% McCain, 79% Romney
Hawaii - 70% Obama, 66% Obama
Idaho - 65% McCain, 68% Romney
Kentucky - 63% McCain, 67% Romney
Louisiana - 84% McCain, 84% Romney
Nebraska - 59% McCain, 64% Romney
North Dakota - 55% McCain, 60% Romney
Oklahoma - 71% McCain, 73% Romney
Rhode Island - 58% Obama, 56% Obama
South Carolina - 73% McCain, 76% Romney
South Dakota - 56% McCain, 61% Romney
Tennessee - 63% McCain, 68% Romney
Texas - 73% McCain, 78% Romney
Utah - 66% McCain, 76% Romney
West Virginia - 57% McCain, 63% Romney
Wyoming - 66% McCain, 70% Romney

Reasonable? What do you think?
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2013, 04:47:50 am »
« Edited: August 08, 2013, 04:50:00 am by eric82oslo »

What is your guess of the white vote (%) in these states based on 2008 exit polls?

Alaska - 65% McCain, 64% Romney
Hawaii - 70% Obama, 66% Obama
Texas - 73% McCain, 77% Romney
Utah - 66% McCain, 75% Romney
West Virginia - 57% McCain, 63% Romney

Reasonable? What do you think?


I think you underestimate Romney's loss in Alaska, and underestimate his gains in Texas, Utah and West Virginia. Probably overestimate his gains in Hawaii as well, although they make up such a tiny percentage of that state that it's hard to know.

Come to think of it, these numbers have to be doubled up when you count the winning margin, so it's not too unlikely actually. But I still disagree with the numbers on Alaska, Hawaii and Texas. My feeling says whites voted 78-83% Republican in Texas.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2013, 05:32:26 am »
« Edited: August 08, 2013, 05:36:59 am by Waukesha County »

What is your guess of the white vote (%) in these states based on 2008 exit polls?

Alaska - 65% McCain, 64% Romney
Hawaii - 70% Obama, 66% Obama
Texas - 73% McCain, 77% Romney
Utah - 66% McCain, 75% Romney
West Virginia - 57% McCain, 63% Romney

Reasonable? What do you think?


I think you underestimate Romney's loss in Alaska, and underestimate his gains in Texas, Utah and West Virginia. Probably overestimate his gains in Hawaii as well, although they make up such a tiny percentage of that state that it's hard to know.

Come to think of it, these numbers have to be doubled up when you count the winning margin, so it's not too unlikely actually. But I still disagree with the numbers on Alaska, Hawaii and Texas. My feeling says whites voted 78-83% Republican in Texas.

I was thinking that much of Obama's improvement there was because of a hard swing of Eskimos and Asians which make up a good portion of the electorate, would.... say 62% Romney be more reasonable? Lower than that?

Now that I think about it, I did underestimate Romney in Utah, 76/77% would definitely be more reasonable, and maybe 64% in West Virginia, but no higher than that because its a very white state. In Texas, was there a hard swing with Hispanics? I know there was a swing, but how much? That + Increased black turnout = Heavy Romney White Vote? The state trended R, but I still can't see how whites would go from 73% to 82% or something like that, I would probably think its around 77/78/79% or maybe even 80%.

In Hawaii, probably the hardest state to predict, I thought the republican trend with whites along with the slight republican swing of the state would put white voters at mid to high 60's. Again, its really hard to tell because their only about 20% of the population and 40% of the electorate.

Anyway, thanks for taking consideration of opinion.
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barfbag
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2013, 11:23:57 pm »

Funny to see. Mitt Romney has to be the whitest candidate we've ever seen run in the general election.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2013, 03:00:49 am »


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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2015, 04:46:02 pm »

Here's the numbers according to Adam's map:

Mississippi: 87% Romney, 11% Obama
Louisiana: 84% Romney, 14% Obama
Alabama: 83% Romney, 16% Obama
Utah: 79% Romney, 18% Obama
Georgia: 79% Romney, 20% Obama
Texas: 79% Romney, 20% Obama
South Carolina: 75% Romney, 23% Obama
Oklahoma: 73% Romney, 27% Obama
Wyoming: 71% Romney, 25% Obama
Arkansas: 70% Romney, 27% Obama
Idaho: 69% Romney, 28% Obama

North Carolina: 68% Romney, 31% Obama
Tennessee: 68% Romney, 31% Obama
Kentucky: 67% Romney, 32% Obama

Kansas: 65% Romney, 33% Obama
West Virginia: 65% Romney, 33% Obama
Nebraska: 64% Romney, 33% Obama
Alaska: 63% Romney, 33% Obama
North Dakota: 62% Romney, 35% Obama
South Dakota: 62% Romney, 35% Obama

Arizona: 62% Romney, 37% Obama
Missouri: 62% Romney, 36% Obama
Virginia: 61% Romney, 37% Obama
Florida: 61% Romney, 38% Obama
Indiana: 60% Romney, 38% Obama
Montana: 59% Romney, 38% Obama
New Mexico: 57% Romney, 39% Obama
Nevada: 57% Romney, 41% Obama
Ohio: 56% Romney, 42% Obama
Michigan: 55% Romney, 44% Obama
Pennsylvania: 55% Romney, 44% Obama
New Jersey: 54% Romney, 45% Obama
Illinois: 53% Romney, 45% Obama
Maryland: 52% Romney, 46% Obama
Colorado: 51% Romney, 47% Obama
Delaware: 50% Romney, 48% Obama
Wisconsin: 50% Romney, 48% Obama
Minnesota: 49% Romney, 48% Obama
California: 49% Obama, 48% Romney
Iowa: 50% Obama, 48% Romney
New Hampshire: 50% Obama, 48% Romney
New York: 51% Obama, 47% Romney
Washington: 51% Obama, 46% Romney
Oregon: 51% Obama, 45% Romney
Connecticut: 53% Obama, 46% Romney
Maine: 56% Obama, 42% Romney
Massachusetts: 58% Obama, 40% Romney
Rhode Island: 60% Obama, 38% Romney
Hawaii: 65% Obama, 33% Romney
Vermont: 66% Obama, 31% Romney
DC: 87% Obama, 11% Romney

I was pretty close for most of them, except for Rhode Island. For some of these states the exit poll information is different than Adam's, so the exit polls could be misleading.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2015, 05:50:52 pm »

20 - 22% sounds about right for Obama's white % in Texas. There's a certain ceiling that Republicans have hit there. The 20 - 22% are your genuine liberals and holdout union workers who are never going to vote Republican except under really specific circumstances.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2015, 11:08:59 am »

20 - 22% sounds about right for Obama's white % in Texas. There's a certain ceiling that Republicans have hit there. The 20 - 22% are your genuine liberals and holdout union workers who are never going to vote Republican except under really specific circumstances.

I agree regarding white Texas Dems who already live there, but keep in mind that Texas presently has white conservatives pouring in from all over the country.  So I could see Texas white voters being at LA/MS levels in the 2020's, but the trend will be from the new arrivals.

PS: Texas whites likely being right of Oklahoma whites is surprising to me.  Although of course white/native identity is very fluid in OK, which makes it hard to be confident in any subsample by race.
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