2000: Bush/Snowe vs Gore/Nunn

[JRP1994]

George W. Bush wins the Republican nomination for President in 2000, and, in an effort to balance the ticket, chooses a moderate - Sen. Olympia Snowe from Maine.

Vice President Al Gore wins the Democratic nomination, and, hoping to repeat the success of '92 and '96, chooses a very popular southerner - former GA Sen. Sam Nunn.

Bush runs a more moderate/centrist campaign than in real life, while Gore runs a more populist campaign than in real life. All other events occur as in real life.

Polling map:

Bush/Snowe: 198
Gore/Nunn: 183
Battleground: 157

How do the tossup states break? Any surprises? What is the final electoral map, and popular vote margin?

[NewYorkExpress]

Gore takes Pennsylvania, Minnesota Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico and Florida
Bush takes everything else.

[barfbag]

It would've helped more than Cheney so I'd say Bush goes between 334 and 367.

[PolitiJunkie]

Definitely a very different election. I think Snowe would have kept NH for Bush, and gotten him ME statewide, ME-02, IA, NM, and WI. With Nunn, two southerners running a populist campaign would have kept the Democrats Clinton's WV and MO, and I also think the ticket would have won Florida. Also, with another Southerner on the ticket, Gore wins his home state of TN.

There would be many close states, especially in the Bush column. Georgia would probably be the closest state, with Bush only winning it by 2 or 3 points. I don't think any of the following would have gone for Bush by more than 6 points, and many would be 4 or 5 point victories for him: Arkansas, Louisiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire, Maine, Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado. Gore's closest states would be Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Tennessee, Florida, Missouri, Minnesota, and Oregon, most in the 5-7 point range.

All in all, I predict a funky map resulting in a 293-245 victory for Gore.