Which state is more likely to vote Democratic in 2016?
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  Which state is more likely to vote Democratic in 2016?
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Poll
Question: ...
#1
A Dakota
 
#2
Missouri
 
#3
South Carolina
 
#4
Texas
 
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Total Voters: 38

Author Topic: Which state is more likely to vote Democratic in 2016?  (Read 672 times)
tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« on: July 05, 2013, 07:27:53 AM »

Hmm...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: July 05, 2013, 07:32:17 AM »

With Hillary, Missouri.
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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2013, 07:46:10 AM »

Missouri, of course.  Without an absolutely dreadful Republican nominee, and an excellent Democratic one, some of the others could possibly flip in 2020.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2013, 09:50:34 AM »
« Edited: July 05, 2013, 09:52:29 AM by eric82oslo »

With Julian Castro as a vice presidential nominee, I'd say Texas. Tongue Though it will become hard if Jeb Bush ends up as the Republican nominee. Missouri is drifting hard towards the Republican side, so it won't be easy to reverse that trend. The Dakotas, and especially North Dakota, are also trending Republican. Hmm, I think I'll end up with Texas actually, although it's much more likely to change sides in 2020. Rumour says that latino share of the Texas electorate (the actual voters who went to the polls I mean) increased from 20% in 2008 till 25% in 2012. That sounds like an insane increase from one election to another. Yet if that's the fact, it might as well increase further up to 30% or thereabouts in 2016. And close to 35% in 2020. In that case, all bets should be off.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2013, 10:39:20 AM »

With Hillary, Missouri. With anyone else... still probably Missouri.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #5 on: July 05, 2013, 10:44:05 AM »

With Hillary, Missouri. With anyone else... still probably Missouri.
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cheesepizza
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« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2013, 12:39:45 PM »

Hilary well outperforms Obama in MO and AR.  So definitely Missouri.
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barfbag
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« Reply #7 on: July 05, 2013, 09:17:54 PM »

Zero chance
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Thomas D
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« Reply #8 on: July 05, 2013, 09:20:19 PM »

With Hillary, Missouri. With anyone else... still probably Missouri.

Yeah this.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: July 05, 2013, 09:22:03 PM »

No matter who the democrat is, they certainly won't carry SC, TX, or a Dakota, Missouri is possible but the democrat will have to do really good nationally. Obama almost got it in 2008.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2013, 07:33:28 AM »

The most likely is Missouri; that's the "safe" pick.  South Carolina and Texas are trending Democratic, but are not very elastic, and are 10 years away from demographic trends culminating in a tipping point.

I would consider North Dakota as a possible 2nd pick.  Lots of newcomers are moving into the state, and one cannot fully predict the result of that.  It's not likely that North Dakota will go for the Democrats, but it's possible.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2013, 10:13:45 AM »

State                      PVI               FiveThirtyEight Elasticity

North Dakota          R+10                            1.17

South Dakota          R+10                            1.10

Missouri                   R+5                              1.01

Texas                      R+10                             1.00

South Carolina         R+8                               0.72


And, some other potential targets:

Arizona                    R+7                               1.13

Montana                  R+7                               1.12

Georgia                    R+6                               0.85
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barfbag
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« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2013, 07:38:06 PM »

State                      PVI               FiveThirtyEight Elasticity

North Dakota          R+10                            1.17

South Dakota          R+10                            1.10

Missouri                   R+5                              1.01

Texas                      R+10                             1.00

South Carolina         R+8                               0.72


And, some other potential targets:

Arizona                    R+7                               1.13

Montana                  R+7                               1.12

Georgia                    R+6                               0.85

I'll buy everyone on this forum lunch if Texas or a Dakota goes for the Democrats.
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