What year will Texas go Democratic?

[eric82oslo]

So what do you guys think? In which year is Texas most likely to vote Democratic for president for the very first time in the "modern era", meaning in this new century/millenium. Or do you think Texas for always will remain a Republican lock?

[Sol]

Barring a realignment, TX will only vote D in major landslides. The GOP is too resilient there fro anything else to be the case.

[greenforest32]

Obviously there are plenty of things that could change dramatically in 10/20/30 years but assuming the base trends continue (TX whites being solid R and minorities increasing as a proportion of the state population but voting at proportionally lower rates), I think it won't happen until the late 2020s or early 2030s. Went with 2028 in the poll.

But in a way I don't think Texas will matter that much. Of course it's the biggest EV vote prize for Republicans but by the time Texas is competitive, they will have major issues in states like Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, etc. I mean just look at a hypothetical 2020 map like this:

^^^ Not entirely unrealistic and it would be 356D-182R. Even picking off Iowa, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania wouldn't bring Democrats below 300 EVs.

[Person Man]

I think Texas is new territory for Democrats, but Republicans will find an "in" somewhere else. Generally, I think that when Texas becomes losable, it will cause the various political coalition to change. That will more or less signal the end of what Nixon,Reagan,Clinton,W and Obama were all about.

[barfbag]

I think Texas is new territory for Democrats, but Republicans will find an "in" somewhere else. Generally, I think that when Texas becomes losable, it will cause the various political coalition to change. That will more or less signal the end of what Nixon,Reagan,Clinton,W and Obama were all about.

There are too many Republican interest groups there too for the GOP to not do whatever it takes to win there.

[ElectionsGuy]

I voted for 2032, but I have no idea. Right now it's 20 points more conservative than the country and the republican base (whites) are so solid at high 70's that even if Hispanics do show up better it will take a long time to counter the heavily republican whites. Then, there's also another scenario in which Hispanics become more republican, then Texas is pretty much secure. Whites could also get more democratic, very unlikely but still possible, in which the republican coalition will weaken and Texas will likely become a Lean R instead of a Solid R. It really depends on the shifts that are going to happen electorally, and different states that become more D or R will effect that. In 20 years, we'll be looking at a different map (base) for both parties, it may not be that different, but it will be somewhat different.

[Person Man]

I voted for 2032, but I have no idea. Right now it's 20 points more conservative than the country and the republican base (whites) are so solid at high 70's that even if Hispanics do show up better it will take a long time to counter the heavily republican whites. Then, there's also another scenario in which Hispanics become more republican, then Texas is pretty much secure. Whites could also get more democratic, very unlikely but still possible, in which the republican coalition will weaken and Texas will likely become a Lean R instead of a Solid R. It really depends on the shifts that are going to happen electorally, and different states that become more D or R will effect that. In 20 years, we'll be looking at a different map (base) for both parties, it may not be that different, but it will be somewhat different.

I'd imagine that everything would have to go right for the Republicans for them to stay "Texas' Party" 20 years from now. If Texas, is still at least half as R at is now in 2032, it will probably be because no one has been able to convince anyone of anything in the last 20 years or that the Democratic Party is on the ropes. With the demographic change, I would think the latter but Americans are getting more and more assaultively stubborn about these things...or so it seems..

[JerryArkansas]

I think that the major parties are going to go through a realignment like the 84-2000 one where the north starts to trend rep while the south and southwest trend dem.  So I think it will flip in 28 or 32.

[eric82oslo]

Right now, the average voter thinks/predicts that Texas will og blue/Democratic in the 2028 election.

[Cryptic]

A landslide might do it in 2020's.  Barring that, probably not until the 2030's.

[ElectionsGuy]

I voted for 2032, but I have no idea. Right now it's 20 points more conservative than the country and the republican base (whites) are so solid at high 70's that even if Hispanics do show up better it will take a long time to counter the heavily republican whites. Then, there's also another scenario in which Hispanics become more republican, then Texas is pretty much secure. Whites could also get more democratic, very unlikely but still possible, in which the republican coalition will weaken and Texas will likely become a Lean R instead of a Solid R. It really depends on the shifts that are going to happen electorally, and different states that become more D or R will effect that. In 20 years, we'll be looking at a different map (base) for both parties, it may not be that different, but it will be somewhat different.

I'd imagine that everything would have to go right for the Republicans for them to stay "Texas' Party" 20 years from now. If Texas, is still at least half as R at is now in 2032, it will probably be because no one has been able to convince anyone of anything in the last 20 years or that the Democratic Party is on the ropes. With the demographic change, I would think the latter but Americans are getting more and more assaultively stubborn about these things...or so it seems..

Of course Texas whites are stubborn! Southern Whites and blacks are the most stubborn voters. That's why southern states are extremely inelastic. However Texas Hispanics are more flexible and that's what makes the state a little more elastic than the other southern states. This is all speculation right now, and Texas actually trended R from R+19.0% to R+19.7% last year, so we'll see what happens in the next decade or so.

Now what is it that you were saying about the Democratic Party being "on the ropes". What does that mean?

[Asian Nazi]

By the time Texas goes Democratic, the Republicans will be utterly screwed, so I'm going to assume that there will be a realignment by the time that Texas becomes competitive.  Arizona on the other hand...