Wonderful list, fantastic work!
Based on this we can calculate how many times each state has been the tipping point state going all the way back to 1856.
And here's that list:
New York - 6 times (most recently in 1944)
Ohio - 4
Illinois - 4
Michigan - 3
Colorado - 2
Florida - 2
Pennsylvania - 2
Rhode Island - 2
California - 2
Wisconsin - 2
Tennessee - 1
Maine - 1
Washington - 1
Missouri - 1
Iowa - 1
West Virginia - 1
New Jersey - 1
South Carolina - 1
New Hampshire - 1
Arkansas - 1
Kentucky - 1
So a total of 21 states have been
the tipping point state at least once since 1856. That is 42% of the states, not bad. And 10 of the states have reached tipping point more than once.
And the winner is...New York, by far. Having been the electoral decider no less than 6 times, including in all three elections during the 1880s, causing a Republican president to be elected twice despite the popular vote wanting the Democratic candidate for the office. Also worth mentioning are the states of Ohio, Illinois and Michigan. What they all have in common is the size of their populations.
In the top 10 list we find plenty of states which are still considered swing and battleground states: Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire. Even South Carolina could possibly become a battleground state in 10-15 more years. It's interesting to see all of the Appalachian states having been the tipping point at least once. Nowadays they're as far from the political center as you could get, more or less.
That gives us this tipping point map:
Of the truely big states, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Arizona, Massachusetts, Indiana, Minnesota and Maryland have all yet to becoming a tipping point state. Maybe in 2016? Both Virginia and Minnesota sure look ripe for t.p. status soon.
North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia being good candidates for 2020. And Texas could perhaps tip the election in 2024 or 2028? By then, Texas' electoral weight will have increased even further, letting the redistricting from the 2020 census work its magic on the map.
