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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?  (Read 3184 times)
barfbag
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Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

« on: July 14, 2013, 07:33:49 pm »

In my view, 2008 was a fluke with a massive D trend. I think 2012 was a reset back to normal between 2004 and 2008. Probably many white conservative voters there who took the chance (and possibly because of Joe Biden) to vote for Obama because they were tired of the Bush administration. 2008 was a very motivating year for democrats.

I agree with you and would say Delaware is such a small state that it's easy for it to show trends and swings simply because of a change in voter turnout. It's just too small. Having said that, I'd like to see the GOP compete in Delaware early in 2016. Christie may not be a far fetched success there.
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barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2013, 11:24:07 am »

The 2008 margin was inflated thanks to Biden. It's clearly not trending Republican.

It's not likely trending Republican. At best it could be a purplish blue state trending towards light or even solid blue at a slow pace.
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barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2013, 03:23:43 am »

2008 D+18
2012 D+15

I don't think this is a very significant trend. Obama and Biden were more popular in 2008 than in 2012 and there might even have been an even bigger trend in Delaware being that it's Biden's home state. His home state advantage in 2008 was great and the ticket's downgrade in 2012 was more significant in a state where they had greater help before. It's only three points.
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