|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 30, 2020, 04:30:17 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Why did Delaware trend Republican in 2012?  (Read 3195 times)
hopper
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,421
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 12, 2013, 11:37:42 am »

Is Delaware getting more conservative or it was just a fluke that a Northeast State like Delaware trended Republican in 2012?
Logged
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,712
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2013, 11:46:06 am »

Fluke. Probably depressed Democrat turnout. Delaware has a small population so a small turnout drop could make a big difference in terms of trends.
Logged
tpfkaw
wormyguy
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,119
Liechtenstein


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2013, 11:53:03 am »

Biden is no longer their long-term Senator.
Logged
Space7
Rookie
**
Posts: 155
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2013, 11:53:31 am »

I also say fluke.

It reverses direction occasionally, such as in 2004, but Delaware has a very clear Democratic trend.

1988 R+5
1992 D+3 (Trended D+8)
1996 D+8 (Trended D+5)
2000 D+13 (Trended D+5)
2004 D+10 (Trended R+3)
2008 D+18 (Trended D+8)
2012 D+15 (Trended R+3)
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,498
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2013, 05:33:53 pm »

In my view, 2008 was a fluke with a massive D trend. I think 2012 was a reset back to normal between 2004 and 2008. Probably many white conservative voters there who took the chance (and possibly because of Joe Biden) to vote for Obama because they were tired of the Bush administration. 2008 was a very motivating year for democrats.
Logged
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2013, 07:33:49 pm »

In my view, 2008 was a fluke with a massive D trend. I think 2012 was a reset back to normal between 2004 and 2008. Probably many white conservative voters there who took the chance (and possibly because of Joe Biden) to vote for Obama because they were tired of the Bush administration. 2008 was a very motivating year for democrats.

I agree with you and would say Delaware is such a small state that it's easy for it to show trends and swings simply because of a change in voter turnout. It's just too small. Having said that, I'd like to see the GOP compete in Delaware early in 2016. Christie may not be a far fetched success there.
Logged
Asian Nazi
d32123
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,530
China


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2013, 08:11:35 pm »

It's a small state so I could see Biden actually helping the Democrats in Delaware in 2008, and as usual the favorite son effect wears off after four years.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,239
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2013, 01:04:38 pm »

It's also got more than its fair share of the kind of affluent urbane suburbanite types that much of the Republican regains (ie 2004 R - 2008 D - 2012 R voters, as opposed to DDR) come from.
Logged
Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 51,464
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2013, 04:25:36 pm »

Same as Illinois. Home State Effect backlash.
Logged
Snowstalker's Last Stand
Snowstalker
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,300
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2013, 11:19:28 am »

The 2008 margin was inflated thanks to Biden. It's clearly not trending Republican.
Logged
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2013, 11:24:07 am »

The 2008 margin was inflated thanks to Biden. It's clearly not trending Republican.

It's not likely trending Republican. At best it could be a purplish blue state trending towards light or even solid blue at a slow pace.
Logged
sg0508
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,750
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2013, 10:00:24 am »

When is the last time the GOP carried ANY major statewide race there? Obviously, we only see the result from the gubernatorial races, but Bill Roth was the last I could remember back in '94...yikes.

Yes, Mike Castle lived in the house for years after being governor, but even he was thrown out in one of the dumbest primaries and decisions the GOP EVER made.

George Bush quietly made a mild play for DE back in '04 when 9/11 was an issue in the northeast and he got within 7.5%, but it's not like it was ever in doubt.
Logged
Mechaman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,809
Jamaica
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2013, 10:32:00 am »

For the reason everything happens in Delaware:

Boredom
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,930
Nepal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2013, 10:49:01 am »

Same reason Illinois trended Republican in 2012.  Home state excitement wears off after the first term.
Logged
RedSLC
SLValleyMan
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,486
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2013, 01:22:34 pm »

When is the last time the GOP carried ANY major statewide race there? Obviously, we only see the result from the gubernatorial races, but Bill Roth was the last I could remember back in '94...yikes.

Yes, Mike Castle lived in the house for years after being governor, but even he was thrown out in one of the dumbest primaries and decisions the GOP EVER made.

George Bush quietly made a mild play for DE back in '04 when 9/11 was an issue in the northeast and he got within 7.5%, but it's not like it was ever in doubt.

Delaware narrowly reelected its incumbent State Treasurer, Tom Wagner, in 2010. He's currently the only republican holding statewide office.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,128
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2013, 01:46:59 pm »

It's too small to be a target.  Because it only has 3 EV, it gets a lot less attention and that probably lends to it swinging more than the nation.
Logged
Sol
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,814


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2013, 06:48:55 pm »

Probably the same trend one sees in some Philly suburban counties.
Logged
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2013, 03:23:43 am »

2008 D+18
2012 D+15

I don't think this is a very significant trend. Obama and Biden were more popular in 2008 than in 2012 and there might even have been an even bigger trend in Delaware being that it's Biden's home state. His home state advantage in 2008 was great and the ticket's downgrade in 2012 was more significant in a state where they had greater help before. It's only three points.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines