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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Dalla Piccola, Apocrypha)
  1920: Hoover (D) vs. Wood (R)
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Author Topic: 1920: Hoover (D) vs. Wood (R)  (Read 667 times)
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shua
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« on: March 27, 2014, 12:24:14 am »

It's 1920, and the Democrats have convinced Herbert Hoover to run and have given him the nomination.  Meanwhile, the Republicans settle on Major General Leonard Wood of New Hampshire.   Who do the parties choose for VP candidates?  Can Hoover give the Democrats a chance to win?
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Mechaman
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« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2014, 07:04:20 am »
« Edited: March 27, 2014, 07:15:07 am by Flawless Victory »

It's 1920, and the Democrats have convinced Herbert Hoover to run and have given him the nomination.  Meanwhile, the Republicans settle on Major General Leonard Wood of New Hampshire.   Who do the parties choose for VP candidates?  Can Hoover give the Democrats a chance to win?

I doubt Jesus could've won as the Democratic nominee in 1920.

Leonard Wood was basically buddy buddies with Teddy Roosevelt, who after death was at Messianic popularity among the general populace.  Wood was widely considered Roosevelt's spiritual successor.  His candidacy was ultimately unsuccessful due to the presence of strong rivals who had more political experience and his unusually strong support of the Red Scare.  The Convention ultimately decided on Harding/Coolidge as the ticket best to return the country from the excesses of the Progressive Era, a sentiment most people agreed with in 1920.

Now, let's say somehow Wood overcomes such opposition and gets the GOP nomination.  Now, Hoover was popular for being a super humanitarian (very true), however he wasn't exactly Mr. Qualifications either. The race would be between a Military Man with no political experience and a Humanitarian Quaker Engineer with no political experience.  Hoover has his own personal popularity, however, the Wood campaigners would probably be quick to mention that Wood is a Teddy Man, which would likely compensate for the popularity differences.

In real life the race was actually Harding vs. Wilson, which really helped the Republicans massively.  With an outright hawk as the candidate, I think it would be harder for the GOP to achieve the massive gains among German Americans that could propel them to a landslide victory if Wood is just seen as a more conservative Woodrow Wilson and not "the return to Normalcy" that Harding campaigned on.  Any strong advantages that Wood would have would be the natural consequence of nationwide antipathy of the Wilson Administration and the economic woes of the time, which would probably be enough to get Wood a decent electoral victory, but not a landslide.

Outside of his qualifications, Hoover wouldn't be a bad candidate for the Democrats.  He was essentially a "non-politician", which would have it's advantages in that his campaign can start off with a clean slate.  The problem is, again, the Democratic Party doesn't have a clean slate.  Going into the 1920 Election he's going to have to somehow win back the faith of millions of Democrats, many of whom were the targets of the Wilson Administration.  At the same time, he can't outright offend the current administration, forcing him to take at best a moderate approach.  In other words, his quest for the presidency would be impossible, especially as conditions deteriorate economically before election day.  His German ancestry might offset some of the negative reaction against Wilson in the Plains, but that's not entirely a given.  If Wood runs a nationalistic enough campaign, the Irish vote could come out in support of the Democrats this time, though probably at a lesser rate than usual and not near enough to swing states with strong political machinery.  Other ethnic minorities that have large labor politics are likely to go Socialist.

All in all, the best case scenario is a lukewarm turnout by a demotivated Democratic base, instead of the full blown revolt that happened in real life.

Here's the most pro-Hoover map I can come up with:



Major General Leonard Wood (R-New Hampshire)/Governor Frank O. Lowden (R-Illinois) 48.97% Popular Vote, 308 Electoral Vote
Humanitarian Herbert Hoover (D-California)/Governor James M. Cox (D-Ohio) 45% Popular Vote, 223 Electoral Vote
Eugene V. Debs (S-Indiana)/Seymour Stedman (S-Illinois) 5.02% Popular Vote, 0 Electoral Votes
Others: 1.01% PV
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2014, 09:53:37 am »

It's 1920, and the Democrats have convinced Herbert Hoover to run and have given him the nomination.  Meanwhile, the Republicans settle on Major General Leonard Wood of New Hampshire.   Who do the parties choose for VP candidates?  Can Hoover give the Democrats a chance to win?

I doubt Jesus could've won as the Democratic nominee in 1920.

Leonard Wood was basically buddy buddies with Teddy Roosevelt, who after death was at Messianic popularity among the general populace.  Wood was widely considered Roosevelt's spiritual successor.  His candidacy was ultimately unsuccessful due to the presence of strong rivals who had more political experience and his unusually strong support of the Red Scare.  The Convention ultimately decided on Harding/Coolidge as the ticket best to return the country from the excesses of the Progressive Era, a sentiment most people agreed with in 1920.

Now, let's say somehow Wood overcomes such opposition and gets the GOP nomination.  Now, Hoover was popular for being a super humanitarian (very true), however he wasn't exactly Mr. Qualifications either. The race would be between a Military Man with no political experience and a Humanitarian Quaker Engineer with no political experience.  Hoover has his own personal popularity, however, the Wood campaigners would probably be quick to mention that Wood is a Teddy Man, which would likely compensate for the popularity differences.

In real life the race was actually Harding vs. Wilson, which really helped the Republicans massively.  With an outright hawk as the candidate, I think it would be harder for the GOP to achieve the massive gains among German Americans that could propel them to a landslide victory if Wood is just seen as a more conservative Woodrow Wilson and not "the return to Normalcy" that Harding campaigned on.  Any strong advantages that Wood would have would be the natural consequence of nationwide antipathy of the Wilson Administration and the economic woes of the time, which would probably be enough to get Wood a decent electoral victory, but not a landslide.

Outside of his qualifications, Hoover wouldn't be a bad candidate for the Democrats.  He was essentially a "non-politician", which would have it's advantages in that his campaign can start off with a clean slate.  The problem is, again, the Democratic Party doesn't have a clean slate.  Going into the 1920 Election he's going to have to somehow win back the faith of millions of Democrats, many of whom were the targets of the Wilson Administration.  At the same time, he can't outright offend the current administration, forcing him to take at best a moderate approach.  In other words, his quest for the presidency would be impossible, especially as conditions deteriorate economically before election day.  His German ancestry might offset some of the negative reaction against Wilson in the Plains, but that's not entirely a given.  If Wood runs a nationalistic enough campaign, the Irish vote could come out in support of the Democrats this time, though probably at a lesser rate than usual and not near enough to swing states with strong political machinery.  Other ethnic minorities that have large labor politics are likely to go Socialist.

All in all, the best case scenario is a lukewarm turnout by a demotivated Democratic base, instead of the full blown revolt that happened in real life.

Here's the most pro-Hoover map I can come up with:



Major General Leonard Wood (R-New Hampshire)/Governor Frank O. Lowden (R-Illinois) 48.97% Popular Vote, 308 Electoral Vote
Humanitarian Herbert Hoover (D-California)/Governor James M. Cox (D-Ohio) 45% Popular Vote, 223 Electoral Vote
Eugene V. Debs (S-Indiana)/Seymour Stedman (S-Illinois) 5.02% Popular Vote, 0 Electoral Votes
Others: 1.01% PV
Pretty much this^ Was Wood a more progressive Republican than Harding and Coolidge, or was he still relatively conservative?
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Mechaman
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« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2014, 07:22:59 am »

It's 1920, and the Democrats have convinced Herbert Hoover to run and have given him the nomination.  Meanwhile, the Republicans settle on Major General Leonard Wood of New Hampshire.   Who do the parties choose for VP candidates?  Can Hoover give the Democrats a chance to win?

I doubt Jesus could've won as the Democratic nominee in 1920.

Leonard Wood was basically buddy buddies with Teddy Roosevelt, who after death was at Messianic popularity among the general populace.  Wood was widely considered Roosevelt's spiritual successor.  His candidacy was ultimately unsuccessful due to the presence of strong rivals who had more political experience and his unusually strong support of the Red Scare.  The Convention ultimately decided on Harding/Coolidge as the ticket best to return the country from the excesses of the Progressive Era, a sentiment most people agreed with in 1920.

Now, let's say somehow Wood overcomes such opposition and gets the GOP nomination.  Now, Hoover was popular for being a super humanitarian (very true), however he wasn't exactly Mr. Qualifications either. The race would be between a Military Man with no political experience and a Humanitarian Quaker Engineer with no political experience.  Hoover has his own personal popularity, however, the Wood campaigners would probably be quick to mention that Wood is a Teddy Man, which would likely compensate for the popularity differences.

In real life the race was actually Harding vs. Wilson, which really helped the Republicans massively.  With an outright hawk as the candidate, I think it would be harder for the GOP to achieve the massive gains among German Americans that could propel them to a landslide victory if Wood is just seen as a more conservative Woodrow Wilson and not "the return to Normalcy" that Harding campaigned on.  Any strong advantages that Wood would have would be the natural consequence of nationwide antipathy of the Wilson Administration and the economic woes of the time, which would probably be enough to get Wood a decent electoral victory, but not a landslide.

Outside of his qualifications, Hoover wouldn't be a bad candidate for the Democrats.  He was essentially a "non-politician", which would have it's advantages in that his campaign can start off with a clean slate.  The problem is, again, the Democratic Party doesn't have a clean slate.  Going into the 1920 Election he's going to have to somehow win back the faith of millions of Democrats, many of whom were the targets of the Wilson Administration.  At the same time, he can't outright offend the current administration, forcing him to take at best a moderate approach.  In other words, his quest for the presidency would be impossible, especially as conditions deteriorate economically before election day.  His German ancestry might offset some of the negative reaction against Wilson in the Plains, but that's not entirely a given.  If Wood runs a nationalistic enough campaign, the Irish vote could come out in support of the Democrats this time, though probably at a lesser rate than usual and not near enough to swing states with strong political machinery.  Other ethnic minorities that have large labor politics are likely to go Socialist.

All in all, the best case scenario is a lukewarm turnout by a demotivated Democratic base, instead of the full blown revolt that happened in real life.

Here's the most pro-Hoover map I can come up with:



Major General Leonard Wood (R-New Hampshire)/Governor Frank O. Lowden (R-Illinois) 48.97% Popular Vote, 308 Electoral Vote
Humanitarian Herbert Hoover (D-California)/Governor James M. Cox (D-Ohio) 45% Popular Vote, 223 Electoral Vote
Eugene V. Debs (S-Indiana)/Seymour Stedman (S-Illinois) 5.02% Popular Vote, 0 Electoral Votes
Others: 1.01% PV
Pretty much this^ Was Wood a more progressive Republican than Harding and Coolidge, or was he still relatively conservative?

I'd have to reread the book, but I believe that Wood wasn't really either conservative/progressive.  He was more of a mainstream Republican who was super serious about persecuting radicals and having a strong army/navy.  He would've likely made his positions more clear, but if I had to guess he would be somewhere in the center.  Not sure if he was more progressive than Harding, but I kind of doubt he was as progressive as Coolidge, which I will expand upon later.
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