Mexico: State and local elections 2013

[jaichind]

Now you mentioned it, I did recall some bizarre percentages on the BC PREP site when the results came out.  I could tell looking at the two vote counts that the percentages did not make sense.  Using a calculator I was able to confirm that they were incorrect.  But then the next update had the right percentages so I let it go. 

So when BC election commission talks about "a technical problem" it is really that they could not do basic math ? Oh my.    I thought what they meant was the raw data is incorrect in which case whoever loses will claim fraud. 

[ag]

Now you mentioned it, I did recall some bizarre percentages on the BC PREP site when the results came out.  I could tell looking at the two vote counts that the percentages did not make sense.  Using a calculator I was able to confirm that they were incorrect.  But then the next update had the right percentages so I let it go. 

So when BC election commission talks about "a technical problem" it is really that they could not do basic math ? Oh my.    I thought what they meant was the raw data is incorrect in which case whoever loses will claim fraud. 

Well, we obviously know that they can't do math. Whether the raw data is or isn't correct is unknown at this point - at least to the public at large. We'll simply have to wait for the official count.

[ag]

BTW, a milestone.

This time they've allowed independent candidates in Zacatecas and Quintana Roo (more of it will be allowed even in federal elections soon). And a small town in Zacatecas will now have an independent mayor (instead of a PRIista)!

[ag]

The company that was running BC PREP is saying they are confident of the precinct numbers and sums. It's just that they cannot do percentages (they are calling it a "rounding error", though, of course, it must be some really bad formula some idiot put in).

[jaichind]

The company that was running BC PREP is saying they are confident of the precinct numbers and sums. It's just that they cannot do percentages (they are calling it a "rounding error", though, of course, it must be some really bad formula some idiot put in).

So this company is really saying they are not capable of using excel. 

[ag]

The company that was running BC PREP is saying they are confident of the precinct numbers and sums. It's just that they cannot do percentages (they are calling it a "rounding error", though, of course, it must be some really bad formula some idiot put in).

So this company is really saying they are not capable of using excel. 

I don't know, who was putting in the data/formulas - might be electoral commission folks. I believe, the same company was running the Puebla PREP - without a problem.

[ag]

Most of the 17 BC electoral districts have decided for a full recount - not the tally of the actas, but the full vote-by-vote recount of the reopened boxes. A few of the districts are recounting the legislative and municipal races as well.

This is bad news for PAN - they are going to courts. Part of the problem for PAN here is that even though they've had the governor since 1989, for the last 3 years PRI has had a majority in the state legislature, which they've used to stack the state electoral commission. PANistas are livid, from what I can feel.

Update: PRI has just withdrawn the full recount request, earning a public "thanks" from PAN. The districts still have to decide what to do, but in the absence of the request they would, probably, have to simply follow the standard procedure, only recounting the "difficult" cases, provided for in the law.

This last about-face might, indeed, have something to do with national politics. if PAN victory here were to be reversed on recount conducted by the PRIista commission, you could, surely, say bye-bye to any interparty civility at all levels (that is aside from the appeals that could have resulted in electoral courts ordering an outright re-run of the whole thing). So, jaichind, here I could believe your story of the state party folks coming under pressure from the national party or national government. If that is the case, we might see some juicy appointments of Baja priistas at the national level.

[ag]

BTW, here is some national context.

For the last month or so the internal tensions in PAN have been boiling over in public. The biggest battle is in the Senate. There, the PAN faction was refusing to follow the orders from the national leadership to be nice to government, in particular introducing its own bills, outside of the "pact for Mexico" frameowrk that the leadership has a greed to. The party leader in the senate was Ernesto Cordero, who had been Calderon's Treasury Secretary and preferred successor in presidency (he lost the primary to Vasquez Mota). Of course, he is largely viewed as the defender of the Calderonista interests in the party (one of the Senators supporting him is, in fact, Calderon's sister).

Well, the national party leader, Gustavo Madero (a great-nephew of the famous Francisco Madero), fired Cordero and replaced him with a side-kick (Preciado). He has the right to do so, according to the party statute. But, the problem is, Madero has very few supporters in the Senate faction (which, of course, consists of candidates nominated when Calderon was still president).

To make the long story short, of the 38 Senators that PAN has right now, between 22 and 24 (a couple are on board most, but not all the time) are firm Cordero supporters, who are going out of their way to publicly defy  Madero and sabotaje Preciado. The latter only has 7 reliable senate votes (including his own). Another 7 are inbetween - neither thrilled with Cordero, nor with Madero/Preciado. And of these "neutrals", probably, the most prominent is Ernesto Ruffo  - the same Ernesto Ruffo, who in 1989 became the first PANista governor in BC (and in the country).

[jaichind]

See

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/dead-man-wins-local-election-in-mexico/2013/07/11/e044538a-ea5b-11e2-aa9f-c03a72e2d342_story.html

"Carballido faked his own demise in 2010, according to Mexico’s Reforma newspaper, in order to evade charges stemming from a 2004 sexual assault.

With police on his trail, Carballido “died” and obtained a coroner’s certificate in September 2010, affirming he had succumbed to “natural causes” after slipping into a diabetic coma. The charges were dropped.

Carballido’s resurrection occurred this year when he ran as a local candidate for Mexico’s leftist Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD), beating his opponent Sunday by a margin of 11 votes, 515 to 504."

[jaichind]

Looks like PRI accepts defeat in BC governor race.

[ag]

Full recount of ballots ordered in Oaxaca city. The PREP had shown something like a 870 vote lead for the priista, which on final tally dropped to a margin of 579 votes (0.62%), well within the 1% threshold for the full recount.

[ag]

Oaxaca City formally goes PRI - by 613 votes.

[ag]

So, in the end the summary is: PRD did well, though did step back a bit from 3 years ago. Might have, actually, increased the total number of municipalities it will govern (I have to check), but those are the gains in smallish towns and rural areas, with a loss in a few bigger cities (it could have hardly improved in them, since three years ago it won nearly everything on offer=. PAN marginally improved. PRD was screwed. PAN, at least, can argue that it did well a few areas. Nothing redeeming in this election for the PRD.  

A peculiar case is Sinaloa - there the winner, apparently, is the governor. He is a strange case: though a long-time PRI honcho, he didn't get the nomination, and so was elected with PAN/PRD support. Apparently, this time pretty much everybody who won (irrespective of the official party affiliation party) was whomever he chose to support. A cacique is a cacique. At least in Sinaloa.

[ag]

State by state - just to remember.

State Congress 18 directly elected seats and 9 PR (seems like it was 11 PR in 2010)

PAN+PRD coalition (last time they ran separately)
PAN 5 directly elected seats + 2 PR = 7 (2010 was 2+2=4), gain 3
PRD 1 + 1 = 2 (gain 2)

In 2010 the PRI was in coalition both with PVEM and PANAL and together they got 25 seats (including all but 2 directly elected seats). This time PANAL ran separately

PRI+PVEM coalition
PRI 10+2=12
PVEM 1+1=2

PANAL 1+1=2

I haven't found the party distribution for these 3 in 2010, but together they lost 9 seats

MC 0+1=1 (gain 1)
PT 0+1=1 (gain 1)

Municipalities
Last time PAN/PVEM/PANAL got every single one of the 11 municipalities in Aguascalientes.
This time
PAN/PRD (but, really, all PAN) has 3
PRI/PVEM 3
PANAL 3
PT 2

However, PAN gets the three largest municipalities

1. Aguascalientes state capital, 797 thousand residents by the 2010 census - PAN pick-up from PRI-PVEM-PANAL)

2. Jesus Maria, 100 thousand residents in 2010 (PAN pick-up from PRI-PVEM-PANAL)
Calvillo (PAN pick-up from PRI-PVEM-PANAL)

3. Calvillo,  54 thousand residents in 2010 (PAN pick-up from PRI-PVEM-PANAL)

[ag]

Baja California.

The only state with the governor being elected this time.

This is another PAN/PRD coalition. PRD was given the Ensenada mayoralty to contest - and lost.

In 2010 (a midterm in BC, so the governor was not being contested, with a PANista having been elected in 2007 - or, for that matter, ever since 1989) PRI with coalition partners got everything - all 5 municipalitiees and 13 out of 16 directly elected legislative seats. This time it is a PAN recovery

Governor: PAN hold - in coalition with PRD, PANAL and PEBC (a local party) but, really, PAN

State congress (17 districts + 7 PR - total 24 seats; last time was 16 districts+9 PR - 25 seats)

PAN/PRD/PANAL/PEBC coalition (last time it was PAN/PANAL/PES - PES, another local party is now going w/ PRI)
PAN 5 districts + 2 by PR=7
PRD = 1+0 = 1 (last time, by themselves, they got a single PR seat, this time a single direct seat)
PANAL= 2+0=2
PEBC = 2+0=2 (last time, by themselves, they got a single PR seat)
Total=10+2=12 (last time PAN/PANAL/PES had  3+5=8)

PRI/PVEM/PES/PT coalition (last time was just PRI/PVEM)
PRI=4+3=7
PVEM=1+0=1
PT=1+0=1
PES=1+0
Total=7+3=10 (last time PRI/PVEM had 13+1=14)

In addition, running alone

MC= 0+2=2 (last time wasn't represented, +2)

Municipalities PRI coalition holds 3, while PAN picks-up Mexicali for itself and Playas de Rosarito for PANAL

3 largest municipalities

1. Tijuana 1,560 thousand residents in 2010 - PRI hold
2. Mexicali, state capital, 957 thousand residents in 2010 - PAN gain from PRI
3. Ensenada, 467 thousand residents in 2010 (it is a small town, but the municipality holds most of the state) - PRI hold