Mexico: State and local elections 2013

[ag]

PRI's lead in Oaxaca City is almost 3% with 12% of the vote counted.  If this continues it might become a trend.

Yeah, looks like nominating a right-winger for a leftist city wasn't such a great idea.

[ag]

On the other hand, in Aguascalientes PAN looks like it steadily, if slowly, approaching a pick-up.  Elsewhere in the state, where last time all municipalities went PRI, this time PAN, PRI and PANAL lead in 3 places each, with PT ahead in 2. The three largest, though (Aguascalientes, Jesus Maria and Calvillo) look like PANista gains.

[ag]

PRI lead in Oaxaca is 434 votes (just under 2.5%) with 15% reporting.

[ag]

In Chihuahua PRI is ahead in the city of Chihuahua and PAN is ahead in Juarez - both barely.

IN BC PAN is ahead in Mexicali, Tecate and Playas de Rosarito and PRI is ahead in Tijuana and Ensenada.

Last time all of these were taken by PRI (though, of course, they all have a history of PAN mayoralties).

[ag]

In BC the PAN lead seems to stabilize around 4.5%. Actually, PAN's Madero might have been right. Very early, though.

[jaichind]

In Oaxaca City with 28% of vote counted lead for PRI is just under 3%.

[jaichind]

In BC, with about 10% of the vote counted PAN lead is just under 4% but PRI seems to be closing in.  More likely than not PAN will win but the result might be closer than 4%.  As the % of the vote counted goes from 10% to 30% I think we can determine some trends.  Most likely I will not be around to see it as I am going to sleep soon.

[ag]

In BC, with about 10% of the vote counted PAN lead is just under 4% but PRI seems to be closing in.  More likely than not PAN will win but the result might be closer than 4%.  As the % of the vote counted goes from 10% to 30% I think we can determine some trends.  Most likely I will not be around to see it as I am going to sleep soon.

Well, PAN lead is, actually, still growing in absolute terms - around 2,500 thousand votes now. It is too close for comfort, but it is a lead that is becoming non-negligible.

Oaxaca seems to be going for PRI.

On the other hand, I am about to call Aguascalientes for PAN - at the very least, they will not suffer a decrease in the number of state capitals they hold.

[ag]

PRI lead in Oaxaca is now just under 2 percentage points (around 700 votes). Quite close, actually.

[ag]

Well, with 41% reporting in BC, PAN has opened about 11,500 vote lead. Narrow, but would not be easy to close. PRI is holding Tijuana, Tecate and Ensenada, but PAN is recovering Mexicali and Rosarito, it seems. The state congress will be very finely split.

PAN's major pick-ups for the night (other than Mexicali) are likely to be Aguascalientes (that on is all but done), Saltillo, Matamoros, Nuevo Laredo, Boca del Rio (though this one is close). Oaxaca might go the other way, as did Tampico, but PAN has easily held Puebla.  PRI is holding, it seems, Torreon (close, but seems unlikely to be overcome), Gomez Palacio, Durango, Tijuana, Chihuahua, Ciudad Juarez (though this one is very close), Veracruz, Xalapa, Cancun, Zacatecas - quite a few major cities. PRI is still dominant, PAN is marginally recovering, PRD is increasingly reduced to a supporting role (at least, outside the few strongholds which were not up for election this time).

[ag]

Almost 47% reporting. PAN lead is up to 17,500 votes (over 4%).

[ag]

Another possible pick-up for PAN would be Tlaxcala (at least, for the moment they have a narrow lead there). Not a major city, but a state capital, nonetheless.

[jaichind]

Looks like PRI wins Oaxaca City by about 1%.  PAN/PRD beats PRI/PVEM in Oaxaca Legislature 14-11 in terms of seats.  In BC PAN beats PRI in govenor race by 3% and wins the BC Legislature over PRI 10-7 in terms of seats.  My impression is that in terms of State Legislature the PRI wins pretty much in the rest of the states up for election.

[Zanas]

Good to know. I was under the impression the BC PRI is even more a mafia that the other states' PRIs... Is Jorge Hank Rhon still around ?

[jaichind]

It seems that 2007 was a very strong year for PRI so pretty much everything up for grabs were in PRI hands already.  I guess in that year there was no real PAN-PRD alliance at the local level to stop PRI which really started in 2010 after the PRI success in the 2009 elections.  Despite PAN-PRD alliances in a lot of places the PRI did pretty well considering.

[Torie]

It looks like the older brother of my pal Memo lost his election in Sinaloa state. The PRI refused to look at his petitions, so he was squeezed off the PRI for his legislative district, and ran on the PAS ticket instead. It looks like he got about a quarter of the vote and ran third. Memo flew down for the election to lend support. Too bad.

[jaichind]

I missed it, but Puebla State Legislature PAN/PRD won more seats than PAN/PVEM 18-8.

[ag]

It seems that 2007 was a very strong year for PRI so pretty much everything up for grabs were in PRI hands already.  I guess in that year there was no real PAN-PRD alliance at the local level to stop PRI which really started in 2010 after the PRI success in the 2009 elections.  Despite PAN-PRD alliances in a lot of places the PRI did pretty well considering.

It is not 2007, but 2010 (2009 in Coahuila, I think). Municipal terms, generally, are 3 years.  And, yes, that one was a PRI year.

[ag]

I missed it, but Puebla State Legislature PAN/PRD won more seats than PAN/PVEM 18-8.

PRI/PVEM you mean

Don't forget: there are also PR seats. Allocation of these is, generally, rather mysterious, and, usually, winds up in courts (due to badly written laws). In any case, outright majorities will not be the case everywhere.

[jaichind]

It seems that 2007 was a very strong year for PRI so pretty much everything up for grabs were in PRI hands already.  I guess in that year there was no real PAN-PRD alliance at the local level to stop PRI which really started in 2010 after the PRI success in the 2009 elections.  Despite PAN-PRD alliances in a lot of places the PRI did pretty well considering.

It is not 2007, but 2010 (2009 in Coahuila, I think). Municipal terms, generally, are 3 years.  And, yes, that one was a PRI year.

Ah thx.  So govenor terms are 6 years, State congress are 6 years and  Municipal terms are 3 years.  Correct ?

[jaichind]

I missed it, but Puebla State Legislature PAN/PRD won more seats than PAN/PVEM 18-8.

PRI/PVEM you mean

Don't forget: there are also PR seats. Allocation of these is, generally, rather mysterious, and, usually, winds up in courts (due to badly written laws). In any case, outright majorities will not be the case everywhere.

Yes PRI/PVEM.   Sorry, typo.  I assume the PR allcation is so complicated is mostly because each state has its own version of the 42% rule which I am sure is different from each other.

[ag]

I missed it, but Puebla State Legislature PAN/PRD won more seats than PAN/PVEM 18-8.

PRI/PVEM you mean

Don't forget: there are also PR seats. Allocation of these is, generally, rather mysterious, and, usually, winds up in courts (due to badly written laws). In any case, outright majorities will not be the case everywhere.

Yes PRI/PVEM.   Sorry, typo.  I assume the PR allcation is so complicated is mostly because each state has its own version of the 42% rule which I am sure is different from each other.

Yep. And also because you have divisibility problems due to small size of the legislatures.

[ag]

It seems that 2007 was a very strong year for PRI so pretty much everything up for grabs were in PRI hands already.  I guess in that year there was no real PAN-PRD alliance at the local level to stop PRI which really started in 2010 after the PRI success in the 2009 elections.  Despite PAN-PRD alliances in a lot of places the PRI did pretty well considering.

It is not 2007, but 2010 (2009 in Coahuila, I think). Municipal terms, generally, are 3 years.  And, yes, that one was a PRI year.

Ah thx.  So govenor terms are 6 years, State congress are 6 years and  Municipal terms are 3 years.  Correct ?

Varies. But, generally, state congress and municipal terms are 3 years, while governor terms are 6 years. That is why this time you get so many legislators and mayors/councils up for re-election, but only one governor. Federally, the Pesident and Senate are 6 years, while the House is 3 years. And, of course, there are always strange cases due to changes in callendars, etc.

[jaichind]

From AFP:
-------------------------
With 97 percent of votes counted early Monday, the preliminary results showed PAN candidate Francisco "Kiko" Vega winning with 47.15 percent compared to 44.14 percent for PRI hopeful Francisco Trenti.
But the Baja California Electoral Institute scrapped the results, citing a technical problem, and called for a recount that will begin Wednesday and is expected to finish by Sunday.
With the result now unknown, Camacho reversed course, saying he would wait for the official result before declaring victory.
"I no longer say that we won. I'm not saying we lost. I prefer to be conservative for now," Camacho told MVS Radio.
The PAN, however, and their allies from the leftist Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) voiced confidence that their joint candidate would triumph.
"We are completely certain of our clear triumph," PAN elections secretary Arturo Garcia Portillo told AFP.
------------------------

Now they are saying PREP is not accurate and we have to wait for the real count ?

[ag]

Ok. A few things.

1. PREP is NOT an official count. No results have ever been or ever will be certified based on PREP. PREP is only there to inform the public and make cheating hard (by providing a publically available copy of the results on the election night that should be identical to the one stored with the ballot box for the later official tally) - no other reason. PREP is never complete - there are always a few precincts missing. When PREP is showing an overwhelming victory by a candidate, his/her opponents might choose to concede (as most do), but they do not have to. A close race like this one is not an overwhelming victory.

2. The official tally of the actas from each precinct by law ALWAYS starts on Wednesday and should be done by Sunday (though it could be finished earlier).

3. In this particular case, it seems, the idiots at the BC electoral institute have not checked that their IT people know how to use Excel. So, the percentages were completely wrong throughout the night. I was planning on remarking it (many a time the absolute number of vote difference dropped, while the reported percentage gap went up), but the mistake seemed small, so I decided to ignore it.

4. In any case, PREP posts precinct by precinct results. So, nothing is preventing anyone from downloading that and using their own version of Excel. This is, what it seems, the Tijuana newspaper Frontera did on the night (their percentages worked better, just by eye-balling, without redoing the math). I am certain, both parties have already done this.

5. Unless there's been more than an arithmetic error - i.e., an error in actual entry of numbers, rather than in tallying the sums and percentages - PREP report still indicates PAN's ahead. But it is an indication - nothing more, as PREP isn't designed for anything more.

6. Parties, most certainly, have their own copies of the actas, delivered by their own observers. They should be trying to see if there are any disagreements with PREP there. I haven't seen any accusations of discrepancies of this sort - though, of course, we'd have to wait.

7. To sum up, legally there is nothing extraordinary going on: we simply have to wait for a formal count, while, meanwhile, operating on the indication that PAN is likely to be ahead.  However, in practice, BC electoral institute has shown itself to be highly incompetent. Add to this the horrid performance of some of the other state institutes (Veracruz PREP repeatedly crashed, while Tlaxcala's was, basically, not up for most of the night), and the picture is highly unpleasant.

8. The nasty consequence of this might be that the calls for "federalizing" the entire electoral system (by creating a National Electoral Instiute, INE, instead of IFE), which, mercifully, have been getting quieter, might come back. There are a couple zillion reasons why that would be really bad, though this is, probably, a wrong thread for such a discussion.