Mexico: State and local elections 2013

[ag]

Today.

A bunch of municipal and state legislative elections in about half the country. Gubernatorial election in Baja California only.

The BC gubernatorial election is crucial. This was the first state ever to be taken by PAN - back in 1989. And PAN has held it ever since. This time PRI is serious about taking it back. The left-wing coalition does not exist here. Of the national parties, the (very weak) state PRD is supporting PAN for this one, as does PANAL. PT and PVEM are in coalition w/ PRI. MC runs its own candidate. The results will be in late - remember, BC is the only Mexican state on PST.

Of the elections outside BC, the biggest prize is the city of Puebla. PAN is the incumbent, and is defending it in coalition with PRD, MC and PANAL. PRI is with PVEM, PT is running its own candidate. This should be the easiest PAN hold of the night.

Another major state capital up today is Oaxaca. Also PANista incumbent and PAN is running in coalition with PRD and PT. PRI is with PVEM. PANAL, MC and a couple of state parties are running each their own candidate. In this one PRI may have a good chance: the PANista is quite right-wing, and somewhat of a carpet-bagger, so the left is visibly holding its nose (but coalition agreement is coalition agreement).

Pretty much everything and anything else of consequence is held by PRI, as far as I know. We shall see, if opposition can pick up anything. In most places PAN and PRD are in coalition this time - except in Chihuahua, where, for the most part, the local PRD went into coalition with PRI (to the open disgust and disclaim of the national party). In a few states (Veracruz, Quintana Roo, etc.) the big three are running separately - these should be PRI holds.

[jaichind]

Where can we see results.  I assume http://www.prep.com.mx/ ?

[Hash]

Where can we see results.  I assume http://www.prep.com.mx/ ?

These are state/local elections, so each state's electoral institute has its own PREP: http://www.eleccionesenmexico.org.mx/prep-organismos-electorales_2013.php

State legislatures will be quite interesting as well. Veracruz will be quite important after the corruption scandals in April with the PRI governor and Sedesol.

[ag]

Yep, state elections are run by state electoral institutes. So, for each state you'd have to look for its own set of results. The federal electoral institute only runs TV and Radio campaigning for all of these - everything else is completely state-level.

[jaichind]

Why is PRD so weak at the local level in BC?  Back in 2007 I think PRD got 2% for the governor election so I guess it makes sense for them to back PAN to block PRI.  But If you look at the 2006 and 2012 Prez elections in Mexico, PRD got 24% in 2006 and 32% in 2016.  In fact in 2006 PRD beat PRI in BC and PRD beat PAN in 2012, coming in second in both elections in BC.  Why does not this strength translate into support for local offices?

[jaichind]

I read on-line that PRI might throw the election in BC governor.  The theory is the PRI needs PAN to help pass various legislation and beating PAN in BC which is seen as the PAN citadel since it won in 1989 would cause the current PAN leadership credibility to the point they could not support PRI.  Even if this is true why would the BC local PRI play along I do not know.     

[ag]

I read on-line that PRI might throw the election in BC governor.  The theory is the PRI needs PAN to help pass various legislation and beating PAN in BC which is seen as the PAN citadel since it won in 1989 would cause the current PAN leadership credibility to the point they could not support PRI.  Even if this is true why would the BC local PRI play along I do not know.     

I have seen exactly no trace of evidence for any of that. The race is strongly contested. PRI has just announced that its exit polls show its victory - whatever it is worth (not much at this point), but that is not the behavior of a part preparing to "throw" the election.

[ag]

Why is PRD so weak at the local level in BC?  Back in 2007 I think PRD got 2% for the governor election so I guess it makes sense for them to back PAN to block PRI.  But If you look at the 2006 and 2012 Prez elections in Mexico, PRD got 24% in 2006 and 32% in 2016.  In fact in 2006 PRD beat PRI in BC and PRD beat PAN in 2012, coming in second in both elections in BC.  Why does not this strength translate into support for local offices?

FPTP (and governor race is FPTP) has a tendency to depress the results of the third party. In BC PRD is definitely third. At the presidential level, especially the last time, the logic is national - so, last time it was PAN that was losing votes to such strategizing. But locally PRD in BC is an also-run.

[ag]

First smattering of results. Too little so far to say much - but, as expected, PAN is well ahead in the city of Puebla. Anyways, too early.

[jaichind]

PAN also claims a 5 point victory in BC governor race.

[ag]

Still far too early. So far, from what I can see, PAN is getting far ahead in Puebla (city). The results steadily are at around 50% for PAN, 40% for PRI, actually slowly widening.

In Tamaulipas (where last year PAN was unusually strong), it seems to be gaining Matamoros and Nuevo Laredo from PRI, while loosing Tampico and Rio Bravo to it (no other major changes as far as I can see - pretty much everything else was and is remaining PRI).  Still, it is a slight improvement for PAN, I guess: it is gaining bigger municipalities, while using those substantially smaller.

In Aguascalientes, PAN is slightly ahead in the race to recapture the state capital from PRI - but it is still far too close.

[ag]

PAN also claims a 5 point victory in BC governor race.

Until we get at least a certain decent proportion of numbers on the PREP, all of this is just badly heated bullsh**t.

[ag]

First results from the city of Oaxaca. With under 3% reporting, PAN/PRD are ahead by half a whisker. But elsewhere in the state they are doing good - the state congress will be there's, by a good margin, it seems.

[ag]

In Coahuila PAN seems to be leading to pick up Saltillo and is only behind by a whisker for Torreon. Far too early, though.

[ag]

In Veracruz PRI is ahead to hold both the Veracruz city and Xalapa, but PAN is somewhat ahead to recover Boca del Rio (the major Veracruz suburb) from PRI.

[ag]

PRI is now leading in Oaxaca city - though by a mere 115 votes (just over 6% reporting).

[ag]

I guess, in my capacity as a local reporter for this forum , I am calling the city of Puebla for PAN/PRD. W/ just under a third of the precincts reporting, PAN is ahead by about 12% (nearly 20 thousand votes). This one is safe.

[ag]

The one state where PRI might take everything and anything seems to be Quintana Roo. The tourist sector knows, what's good for it.

[ag]

First results from BC. PAN is ahead by 7 votes out of the first 1200 or so tallied (544 to 537). Yeah, this is going to be a nail-biter.

[jaichind]

Seems like PRI is sweeping Durango state legislature.

[ag]

PRI sweeping Durango is a bit like GOP sweeping Idaho. No surprise there, really.

[ag]

PAN lead in BC has grown to about 300 votes, and now dropped back to under a 100. This is going to be a long night.

[jaichind]

PRI sweeping Durango is a bit like GOP sweeping Idaho. No surprise there, really.

I see.  Well it is impressive that they are winning every seat.

[ag]

PRI sweeping Durango is a bit like GOP sweeping Idaho. No surprise there, really.

I see.  Well it is impressive that they are winning every seat.

Remember, they also have PR seats. So, there will be an opposition there, still.

[jaichind]

PRI's lead in Oaxaca City is almost 3% with 12% of the vote counted.  If this continues it might become a trend.