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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  State Rankings (Trend) (search mode)
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Author Topic: State Rankings (Trend)  (Read 964 times)
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,498
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P

« on: July 03, 2013, 02:57:14 am »

I'm going to rank the states for the trend they gave off in 2012. I will give additional comments on certain states that are almost or barely in a rank. Tell me if you want some numbers for certain states. Use this key to help:

D+0-10 = Lean D
D+10-20 = Strong D
D+20 or more = Safe D
R+0-10 = Lean R
R+10-20 = Strong R
R+20 or more = Safe R
     
Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Strong R
Arizona: Strong R
Arkansas: Safe R
California: Strong D (almost safe)
Colorado: Lean D
Connecticut: Strong D
Delaware: Strong D
District of Columbia: Safe D
Florida: Lean R
Georgia: Strong R (barely)
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Strong D
Indiana: Strong R
Iowa: Lean D
Kansas: Safe R
Kentucky: Safe R
Louisiana: Safe R (barely)
Maine: Strong D (barely)
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Strong D (almost safe)
Michigan: Lean D
Minnesota: Lean D
Mississippi: Strong R
Missouri: Strong R
Montana: Strong R
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Lean D
New Hampshire: Lean D
New Jersey: Strong D
New Mexico: Lean D
New York: Safe D
North Carolina: Lean R
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Lean R (barely)
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Lean D (almost strong)
Pennsylvania: Lean D
Rhode Island: Safe D
South Carolina: Strong R
South Dakota: Safe R (barely)
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Strong R (almost safe)
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D
Virginia: Complete Toss-Up
Washington: Strong D (barely)
West Virginia: Safe R
Wisconsin: Lean D
Wyoming: Safe R

Safe D: 6
Strong D: 8
Lean D: 10

Safe R: 14
Strong R: 9
Lean R: 3

Complete Toss-Up: 1
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,498
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P

« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2013, 10:34:13 pm »

These are the actual hard numbers in case anybody cares. These are what the rankings were based off of.

Alabama: R+26.0%
Alaska: R+17.9%
Arizona: R+13.0%
Arkansas: R+27.6%
California: D+19.2%
Colorado: D+1.5%
Connecticut: D+13.5%
Delaware: D+14.7%
District of Columbia: D+79.7%
Florida: R+3.0%
Georgia: R+11.7%
Hawaii: D+38.8%
Idaho: R+35.8%
Illinois: D+13.0%
Indiana: R+14.1%
Iowa: D+1.9%
Kansas: R+25.6%
Kentucky: R+26.6%
Louisiana: R+21.1%
Maine: D+11.4%
Maryland: D+22.2%
Massachusetts: D+19.3%
Michigan: D+5.6%
Minnesota: D+3.8%
Mississippi: R+15.4%
Missouri: R+13.3%
Montana: R+17.6%
Nebraska: R+25.7%
Nevada: D+2.8%
New Hampshire: D+1.6%
New Jersey: D+13.8%
New Mexico: D+6.3%
New York: D+24.3%
North Carolina: R+5.9%
North Dakota: R+23.5%
Ohio: R+0.9%
Oklahoma: R+37.5%
Oregon: D+8.2%
Pennsylvania: D+1.5%
Rhode Island: D+23.6%
South Carolina: R+14.4%
South Dakota: R+21.9%
Tennessee: R+24.3%
Texas: R+19.7%
Utah: R+52.0%
Vermont: D+31.7%
Virginia: D/R+0.0%
Washington: D+11.0%
West Virginia: R+30.7%
Wisconsin: D+3.0%
Wyoming: R+44.7%

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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,498
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P

« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2013, 06:11:33 am »

It's amusing to see Virginia listed as a GOP state.

How is this being assessed?  Just how the state voted relative to the nation as a whole?  If that's the case, there should be more states in the Democrat column.  The GOP has only won the popular vote once in the last 6 elections, so the country by default leans Democrat in Presidential elections and therefore voting at about the same percentage as the nation would make a state a lean Democrat state.

This scale reads states when the election is completely tied. The states can still be leaning republican and vote for a democrat or vise versa. This system makes it fair to both sides and it's based purely on numbers.

Second, I'm not going to take affect the opinion that the country leans democratic. Times come and go and things change. Just because a republican or democrat wins an election doesn't mean the nation swings one way. There could be flaws in a candidate (Mitt Romney) or a terrible incumbent (Jimmy Carter), or other factors that determine the number a votes a candidate will get, even in their own party. You can never really tell when the nation really leans republican or democratic because of this. The country won't elect democratic presidents forever, no matter how confident you or anybody else might think.  

If you want me to do a list that's based just on the margin of victory for 2012 then I will do it, but what I did was based on trend compared to the country.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,498
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P

« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2013, 10:24:25 pm »


Thanks
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