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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  State Rankings (Trend)
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Author Topic: State Rankings (Trend)  (Read 969 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: July 03, 2013, 02:57:14 am »

I'm going to rank the states for the trend they gave off in 2012. I will give additional comments on certain states that are almost or barely in a rank. Tell me if you want some numbers for certain states. Use this key to help:

D+0-10 = Lean D
D+10-20 = Strong D
D+20 or more = Safe D
R+0-10 = Lean R
R+10-20 = Strong R
R+20 or more = Safe R
     
Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Strong R
Arizona: Strong R
Arkansas: Safe R
California: Strong D (almost safe)
Colorado: Lean D
Connecticut: Strong D
Delaware: Strong D
District of Columbia: Safe D
Florida: Lean R
Georgia: Strong R (barely)
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Strong D
Indiana: Strong R
Iowa: Lean D
Kansas: Safe R
Kentucky: Safe R
Louisiana: Safe R (barely)
Maine: Strong D (barely)
Maryland: Safe D
Massachusetts: Strong D (almost safe)
Michigan: Lean D
Minnesota: Lean D
Mississippi: Strong R
Missouri: Strong R
Montana: Strong R
Nebraska: Safe R
Nevada: Lean D
New Hampshire: Lean D
New Jersey: Strong D
New Mexico: Lean D
New York: Safe D
North Carolina: Lean R
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Lean R (barely)
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Lean D (almost strong)
Pennsylvania: Lean D
Rhode Island: Safe D
South Carolina: Strong R
South Dakota: Safe R (barely)
Tennessee: Safe R
Texas: Strong R (almost safe)
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D
Virginia: Complete Toss-Up
Washington: Strong D (barely)
West Virginia: Safe R
Wisconsin: Lean D
Wyoming: Safe R

Safe D: 6
Strong D: 8
Lean D: 10

Safe R: 14
Strong R: 9
Lean R: 3

Complete Toss-Up: 1
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barfbag
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« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2013, 09:14:11 pm »

Safe GOP   Solid GOP    Likely GOP    Leans GOP    Barely GOP

Utah                    Texas                    Tennessee               Montana                Virginia
Wyoming             South Dakota         South Carolina         Indiana                  Florida
Idaho                  Louisiana               Arizona                    Georgia                 Ohio
Oklahoma            Arkansas                                              Missouri
Nebraska             Mississippi                                            North Carolina
Alaska                 West Virginia
North Dakota
Kansas
Alabama
Kentucky

Safe Dem   Solid Dem   Likely Dem   Leans Dem     Barely Dem

D.C.                      Maryland                Connecticut             Delaware                New Mexico
Vermont                                             California                Maine                     New Hampshire
Hawaii                                                Illinois                    New Jersey             Pennsylvania
Rhode Island                                                                    Washington             Wisconsin
Massachusetts                                                                  Oregon                    Iowa
New York                                                                         Michigan
                                                                                       Minnesota


                                                       Toss Up

                                                        Colorado
                                                        Nevada

I guess I based my rankings on results rather than trends. Oh well.
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barfbag
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« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2013, 09:16:49 pm »

Sorry I don't like how the state category names lined up with the states. It's going to be very confusing for people to follow.
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 3.23, S: -7.48

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« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2013, 10:34:13 pm »

These are the actual hard numbers in case anybody cares. These are what the rankings were based off of.

Alabama: R+26.0%
Alaska: R+17.9%
Arizona: R+13.0%
Arkansas: R+27.6%
California: D+19.2%
Colorado: D+1.5%
Connecticut: D+13.5%
Delaware: D+14.7%
District of Columbia: D+79.7%
Florida: R+3.0%
Georgia: R+11.7%
Hawaii: D+38.8%
Idaho: R+35.8%
Illinois: D+13.0%
Indiana: R+14.1%
Iowa: D+1.9%
Kansas: R+25.6%
Kentucky: R+26.6%
Louisiana: R+21.1%
Maine: D+11.4%
Maryland: D+22.2%
Massachusetts: D+19.3%
Michigan: D+5.6%
Minnesota: D+3.8%
Mississippi: R+15.4%
Missouri: R+13.3%
Montana: R+17.6%
Nebraska: R+25.7%
Nevada: D+2.8%
New Hampshire: D+1.6%
New Jersey: D+13.8%
New Mexico: D+6.3%
New York: D+24.3%
North Carolina: R+5.9%
North Dakota: R+23.5%
Ohio: R+0.9%
Oklahoma: R+37.5%
Oregon: D+8.2%
Pennsylvania: D+1.5%
Rhode Island: D+23.6%
South Carolina: R+14.4%
South Dakota: R+21.9%
Tennessee: R+24.3%
Texas: R+19.7%
Utah: R+52.0%
Vermont: D+31.7%
Virginia: D/R+0.0%
Washington: D+11.0%
West Virginia: R+30.7%
Wisconsin: D+3.0%
Wyoming: R+44.7%

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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2013, 04:54:11 am »

It's amusing to see Virginia listed as a GOP state.

How is this being assessed?  Just how the state voted relative to the nation as a whole?  If that's the case, there should be more states in the Democrat column.  The GOP has only won the popular vote once in the last 6 elections, so the country by default leans Democrat in Presidential elections and therefore voting at about the same percentage as the nation would make a state a lean Democrat state.
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Dashushu, the Anti-Centrist Menace
MustCrushCapitalism
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« Reply #5 on: July 05, 2013, 06:05:07 am »

Interesting thread.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2013, 06:11:33 am »

It's amusing to see Virginia listed as a GOP state.

How is this being assessed?  Just how the state voted relative to the nation as a whole?  If that's the case, there should be more states in the Democrat column.  The GOP has only won the popular vote once in the last 6 elections, so the country by default leans Democrat in Presidential elections and therefore voting at about the same percentage as the nation would make a state a lean Democrat state.

This scale reads states when the election is completely tied. The states can still be leaning republican and vote for a democrat or vise versa. This system makes it fair to both sides and it's based purely on numbers.

Second, I'm not going to take affect the opinion that the country leans democratic. Times come and go and things change. Just because a republican or democrat wins an election doesn't mean the nation swings one way. There could be flaws in a candidate (Mitt Romney) or a terrible incumbent (Jimmy Carter), or other factors that determine the number a votes a candidate will get, even in their own party. You can never really tell when the nation really leans republican or democratic because of this. The country won't elect democratic presidents forever, no matter how confident you or anybody else might think.  

If you want me to do a list that's based just on the margin of victory for 2012 then I will do it, but what I did was based on trend compared to the country.
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barfbag
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« Reply #7 on: July 05, 2013, 08:48:42 pm »

It's amusing to see Virginia listed as a GOP state.

How is this being assessed?  Just how the state voted relative to the nation as a whole?  If that's the case, there should be more states in the Democrat column.  The GOP has only won the popular vote once in the last 6 elections, so the country by default leans Democrat in Presidential elections and therefore voting at about the same percentage as the nation would make a state a lean Democrat state.

It would be amusing if it were the case. By barely Republican I meant reddish purple. I'll make a color chart. If a state is to the right of the popular vote, it's on the right column and if it's to the left it's on the left column. We should also only go back 4 elections because it would be even and more recent. Had Romney won, I'd say we should only go back 2 elections. I base my listings of off the least amount of presidential elections where both parties won.

Safe GOP- dark red                       Alabama
Solid GOP- red                              Texas
Likely GOP- light red                     Tennessee
Leans GOP- purplish red                North Carolina
Barely GOP- reddish purple            Florida
Toss Up- purple                            Colorado
Barely Dem- bluish purple              Pennsylvania
Leans Dem- purplish blue               Michigan
Likely Dem- light blue                    California
Solid Dem- blue                             Maryland
Safe Dem- dark blue                      New York
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: July 05, 2013, 09:48:03 pm »

It's amusing to see Virginia listed as a GOP state.

How is this being assessed?  Just how the state voted relative to the nation as a whole?  If that's the case, there should be more states in the Democrat column.  The GOP has only won the popular vote once in the last 6 elections, so the country by default leans Democrat in Presidential elections and therefore voting at about the same percentage as the nation would make a state a lean Democrat state.

It would be amusing if it were the case. By barely Republican I meant reddish purple. I'll make a color chart. If a state is to the right of the popular vote, it's on the right column and if it's to the left it's on the left column. We should also only go back 4 elections because it would be even and more recent. Had Romney won, I'd say we should only go back 2 elections. I base my listings of off the least amount of presidential elections where both parties won.

Safe GOP- dark red                       Alabama
Solid GOP- red                              Texas
Likely GOP- light red                     Tennessee
Leans GOP- purplish red                North Carolina
Barely GOP- reddish purple            Florida
Toss Up- purple                            Colorado
Barely Dem- bluish purple              Pennsylvania
Leans Dem- purplish blue               Michigan
Likely Dem- light blue                    California
Solid Dem- blue                             Maryland
Safe Dem- dark blue                      New York

VA was to the left of the national popular vote last year.   Obama had 51.16% to 47.28% for Romney for Obama +3.88% vs. Obama +3.85% nationally.  In a national tie, Obama wins it by a few hundred votes.
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 3.23, S: -7.48

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« Reply #9 on: July 05, 2013, 10:24:25 pm »


Thanks
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