One month old, but never got put here for some reason. Not sure where this goes, but I think this is the best place for it. Feel free to move if it's otherwise.
Not much else to go on because this race is three years away (and since Sestak is better known to concentrate a blitz on the last leg of the election), but pretty much shows that Toomey's pulled himself out of whatever rut he was in that he'd be against Sestak. Being staunchly conservative can work in a blue state as long as you're willing to reach across the aisle, and he's now nationally known for that, However, if Sestak can get his name recognition up (58% of PA has forgotten about him) and hit him on his immigration reform vote, he can break that narrative and win.
I'd say it Tilts R, but he's still safer than Ayotte or even someone like Roy Blunt who isn't popular in his own state. It's mostly because of Sestak's general skill as a politician.