Obama Approval now equal to Bush, both trail Clinton

[JRP1994]

According to Gallup:

Obama's average for June 2013: 46%
Bush's average for June 2005   : 46%
Clinton's average for June 1997: 56%

Based off of this trend, what will Obama's approval be by 2014? 2016?

[RedSLC]

Bush was a continual decline, Obama has been like this for the past few months. He'll probably stay where he is now, only fluctuating a few points.

[ElectionsGuy]

If scandals keep appearing, and if The Affordable Health Care Act is really a huge mess starting in 2014, it could be decline for Obama. But we don't know that yet. I'm guessing his lowest approval rating is yet to come, but not as bad as Bush's 27%.

[illegaloperation]

According to Nate Silver, Obama approval rating is down among Democrats due to the NSA leak.

Of cause Obama's approval number have been fluctuating between 45% and 55%

[DS0816]

There are people who still trust Gallup?

[Mr.Phips]

Since the economy is clearly on the upswing, unlike Bush at this point in his term, I don't think Obama has anywhere to go but up.

[JRP1994]

There are people who still trust Gallup?

It's not just Gallup - the RCP Average of all polls has his approval at around 46% as well.

[Person Man]

If scandals keep appearing, and if The Affordable Health Care Act is really a huge mess starting in 2014, it could be decline for Obama. But we don't know that yet. I'm guessing his lowest approval rating is yet to come, but not as bad as Bush's 27%.

Yeah. If Obamacare becomes the next Iraq, Obama could get down to about 40. Otherwise, he will probably stay around where he is now and could probably start creeping up if there is no "there" there with all the Republican allegations and he can do something to reign in the NSA.

[jaichind]

Latest IBD/TIPP has Obama approval at 41 and its Prez Leadership index is at 43.2, couple points lower than in mid 2011 during the budget crisis.  If we look at RCP Obama approval rating averge it is now 45.8/49.3.  Note that this is is about the same as in Oct Nov 2010 when the Democrats were soundly beaten in the mid term elections.  If it stays this way until Oct Nov 2014 then the GOP would be looking at a a +15/+20 seat pickup in the House.  

[Mr.Phips]

Latest IBD/TIPP has Obama approval at 41 and its Prez Leadership index is at 43.2, couple points lower than in mid 2011 during the budget crisis.  If we look at RCP Obama approval rating averge it is now 45.8/49.3.  Note that this is is about the same as in Oct Nov 2010 when the Democrats were soundly beaten in the mid term elections.  If it stays this way until Oct Nov 2014 then the GOP would be looking at a a +15/+20 seat pickup in the House.  

The seats are not there for more than a high single digit Republican gain. I do have to hand it to Republicans for creating these made up scandals, however.  If only Democrats were this good in Bush`s first term.  Had they pursued hearings on those 8/01 9/11 memos, the 2002 elections would have gone a lot differently.

[jaichind]

Latest IBD/TIPP has Obama approval at 41 and its Prez Leadership index is at 43.2, couple points lower than in mid 2011 during the budget crisis.  If we look at RCP Obama approval rating averge it is now 45.8/49.3.  Note that this is is about the same as in Oct Nov 2010 when the Democrats were soundly beaten in the mid term elections.  If it stays this way until Oct Nov 2014 then the GOP would be looking at a a +15/+20 seat pickup in the House.  

The seats are not there for more than a high single digit Republican gain. I do have to hand it to Republicans for creating these made up scandals, however.  If only Democrats were this good in Bush`s first term.  Had they pursued hearings on those 8/01 9/11 memos, the 2002 elections would have gone a lot differently.

You could very well be right.  But there are 9 Dem seats where PVI is R+2 or higher and only 1 GOP held shet which is PVI R+2 or higher.  So all things equal GOP will have net 8 more obvious opportunties.  Then if, and it is a big if, Obama approval ratings stay in the low to mid 40s then we should expect the House races to look worse than 2012 from the generic ballot point of view.  In such a case more single digit GOP gains can be added on top of that net 8, all things equal.  I think it is possible and in fact likely the GOP gains will be in the double digits if such a scenerio would come to pass.

[Mr.Phips]

Latest IBD/TIPP has Obama approval at 41 and its Prez Leadership index is at 43.2, couple points lower than in mid 2011 during the budget crisis.  If we look at RCP Obama approval rating averge it is now 45.8/49.3.  Note that this is is about the same as in Oct Nov 2010 when the Democrats were soundly beaten in the mid term elections.  If it stays this way until Oct Nov 2014 then the GOP would be looking at a a +15/+20 seat pickup in the House.  

The seats are not there for more than a high single digit Republican gain. I do have to hand it to Republicans for creating these made up scandals, however.  If only Democrats were this good in Bush`s first term.  Had they pursued hearings on those 8/01 9/11 memos, the 2002 elections would have gone a lot differently.

You could very well be right.  But there are 9 Dem seats where PVI is R+2 or higher and only 1 GOP held shet which is PVI R+2 or higher.  So all things equal GOP will have net 8 more obvious opportunties.  Then if, and it is a big if, Obama approval ratings stay in the low to mid 40s then we should expect the House races to look worse than 2012 from the generic ballot point of view.  In such a case more single digit GOP gains can be added on top of that net 8, all things equal.  I think it is possible and in fact likely the GOP gains will be in the double digits if such a scenerio would come to pass.

Even in 2010, Republicans didnt win every Dem held seat with an R pvi and won very few seats with a d pvi.

[barfbag]

Just wait until the law requires us to purchase health insurance at the higher rates that are coming. I love it.

[ElectionsGuy]

Unfortunately for Democrats, I don't see Obama getting much done in the rest of his years, the 114th Congress will be less friendly to him than the 113th Congress is right now. And he can't seem to do anything with this congress right now.

[Reaganfan]

Obama's core base of young women, blacks, Hispanics all equal close to 40%. I can't see him dropping further than that. However, I'd watch the white vote. Had he lost the white vote just a little more back in 2012, the election results could have been even different.