Which state will vote Democratic first in a presidential election?

[TDAS04]

Well?

[Del Tachi]

I see Idaho as the kind of place that could become overrun with California transplants in a couple decades.  If that was to happen, it could end up looking a lot like Western Montana or Colorado west of the continental divide. 

[DC Al Fine]

Idaho if Boise keeps growing. Utah has the massive Mormon community to counter the new population and Wyoming has no reason to vote Dem.

[tpfkaw]

If one goes, most likely they all go.  It'd be very unlikely.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Idaho. Wyoming is the least likely.

[hurricanehink]

Idaho was the 4th fastest growing state as of the 2010 census, so I agree with that state.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Idaho, but I doubt it will ever happen except in a 40-some state landslide for the Dems.  A lot also depends on which parts of the state grow the fastest over the next few decades.

[ElectionsGuy]

According to the 2012 election, Idaho would be the first state to vote democratic, then Wyoming, then Utah. But then again I don't know the flexibility of these states. The only support for the democratic party in Idaho is the city of Boise, and Blaine County. Even if Democrats can turn Ada County democratic, it will still be a while before the state goes democratic due to massive Mormon republican support in places like Twin Falls, Idaho Falls, and Rexburg.  Utah only has Summit County, Indian Reserves in Grand/San Juan Counties, and Salt Lake City which is slobbered on by it's Mormon Suburbs and Utah County. Wyoming has Teton County, which is a literally a liberal bastion when you look at the rest of Wyoming. They will have to turn not just Cheyenne, but Casper democratic which will not happen for decades.

Overall Idaho will most likely be the state to vote democratic first out of these three states, because of Boise's growth and because currently it is the least republican.

[JRP1994]

According to the 2012 election, Idaho would be the first state to vote democratic, then Wyoming, then Utah. But then again I don't know the flexibility of these states. The only support for the democratic party in Idaho is the city of Boise, and Blaine County. Even if Democrats can turn Ada County democratic, it will still be a while before the state goes democratic due to massive Mormon republican support in places like Twin Falls, Idaho Falls, and Rexburg.  Utah only has Summit County, Indian Reserves in Grand/San Juan Counties, and Salt Lake City which is slobbered on by it's Mormon Suburbs and Utah County. Wyoming has Teton County, which is a literally a liberal bastion when you look at the rest of Wyoming. They will have to turn not just Cheyenne, but Casper democratic which will not happen for decades.

Overall Idaho will most likely be the state to vote democratic first out of these three states, because of Boise's growth and because currently it is the least republican.

According to the FiveThirtyEight elasticity metric...

ELASTICITY SCORES:

Idaho: 1.06
Wyoming: 1.03
Utah: 1.01

Interestingly, all 3 are more elastic than the national average. Though, Rhode Island has a score of 1.29, and I don't see it going Republican any time soon.

[ElectionsGuy]

According to the 2012 election, Idaho would be the first state to vote democratic, then Wyoming, then Utah. But then again I don't know the flexibility of these states. The only support for the democratic party in Idaho is the city of Boise, and Blaine County. Even if Democrats can turn Ada County democratic, it will still be a while before the state goes democratic due to massive Mormon republican support in places like Twin Falls, Idaho Falls, and Rexburg.  Utah only has Summit County, Indian Reserves in Grand/San Juan Counties, and Salt Lake City which is slobbered on by it's Mormon Suburbs and Utah County. Wyoming has Teton County, which is a literally a liberal bastion when you look at the rest of Wyoming. They will have to turn not just Cheyenne, but Casper democratic which will not happen for decades.

Overall Idaho will most likely be the state to vote democratic first out of these three states, because of Boise's growth and because currently it is the least republican.

According to the FiveThirtyEight elasticity metric...

ELASTICITY SCORES:

Idaho: 1.06
Wyoming: 1.03
Utah: 1.01

Interestingly, all 3 are more elastic than the national average. Though, Rhode Island has a score of 1.29, and I don't see it going Republican any time soon.

Thank you, so Idaho as a definite answer. Weird by the way that Rhode Island is very elastic, it barely changed from 2008 to 2012.

[DS0816]

Well?

They're a package deal.

Last election year on record any one of them voted differently was in 1944, when losing Republican challenger Thomas Dewey won Wyoming in a pickup. It flipped back to the 1948 Democratic column for winner Harry Truman, and the trio have colored the same in all presidential elections ever since.

That's 17 cycles. Their margins have been comparable. For a Democrat to win Idaho/Utah/Wyoming would be a national impact on the scale of a 500-vote landslide in the Electoral College. Or we would see the two parties realign their brands to what they were when the Democrats had the south and the Republicans had the north/northeast.

[barfbag]

I'm not going to over analyze this because as long as we're around and the two party system is around, then all 3 states will be red. Based on the numbers seen from these three states, Idaho would be the first to vote Democratic. Boise can grow all it wants, but Idaho would still vote Republican.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Idaho definitely but barring a realignment there is zero chance of any of them flipping. It would literally take a 500+ EV landslide, and a 20 point margin of victory nationally to flip any of them. I could see a massive D influx from the West Coast flipping the states and sending them right past swing state territory and into +D PVI's like Vermont and Maine did.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Idaho has the lowest income and is growing quickly, so it's probably the most likely.

[barfbag]

Idaho is growing fast? Maybe they'll start giving us more than 4 electoral votes.