2012 White Vote

[ElectionsGuy]

Sorry if someone has already done this, but here's how the white vote went down on 2012:

Now there are some I'm not sure about since there wasn't exit polls in many states...

Alaska - 50's or 60's?, I picked 60's.
Delaware - Did Romney even win it? I picked 50's Romney
D.C. - 80's right?
Georgia - Possibly 80's? I picked 70's
Hawaii - 60's or 70's? I picked 60's.
Rhode Island - 50's or possibly 60's? I picked 50's.
Wyoming - 60's or 70's? I picked 70's.

So if I'm wrong on any of these correct me and I will correct the map.

[ElectionsGuy]

Made this back in October, I believe (two-way model; sorry Libertarians). Admittedly, I thought the white share of the vote for Obama was going to be a bit better than it turned out, or else I'd have included an additional scenario. It looks to have been around 78-79% in Georgia. The closest match to 2012 is now marked.

Also, I posted this a few days ago in another topic. I haven't been able to find voting results by race yet, but I'm willing to guess based on my graphic below that:

The electorate was approximately 62% white Actual: (61.4%)
Whites voted for Romney 79/20%
Non-whites voted for Obama 91/9%

Just curious, are you black, white, or other?

[ElectionsGuy]

Just curious, are you black, white, or other?

When in doubt (because this is Atlas), assume white.

OK, nice to meet a white democrat from Georgia. By the way what is it about Atlas that you said that wouldn't have diversity?

[ElectionsGuy]

Just curious, are you black, white, or other?

When in doubt (because this is Atlas), assume white.

OK, nice to meet a white democrat from Georgia. By the way what is it about Atlas that you said that wouldn't have diversity?

Atlas skews toward wealthy, educated liberals. This has been debated for some time exactly why this is the case but it is.

The people who fit that demographic profile, for a number of socioeconomic reasons, predominately white. I wouldn't find it at all surprising if Atlas has more Asians than blacks.

I always knew this forum was dominated by democrats, but OK. I guess you have to be pretty into politics to find this site and discuss different stuff. I generally think online forums have a Dem advantage probably because the older crowd doesn't use the internet nearly as much as the young crowd. I bet this is probably a predominately young site too.

By the way where has this been discussed?

[ElectionsGuy]

We recently had a relevant thread that touched on this topic: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=173119.0

Also interesting is the 2012 shares of state electorates that are white vs non-white. The 2012 exit polls covered only 31 states instead of the normal 50 (bastards...) but here are those numbers.

2012 share of state electorate that is white (31 state list)

Maine - 96%
Vermont - 95%
Iowa - 93%
New Hampshire - 93%
Montana - 89%
Oregon - 88%
Kansas - 87%
Minnesota - 87%
Massachusetts - 86%
Wisconsin - 86%
Indiana - 84%
Connecticut - 79%
Ohio - 79%
Colorado - 78%
Missouri - 78%
Pennsylvania - 78%
Michigan - 77%
Washington - 76%
Arizona - 74%
Illinois - 70%
North Carolina - 70%
Virginia - 70%
Alabama - 68%
New York - 68%
Florida - 67%
New Jersey - 67%
Nevada - 64%
Maryland - 59%
Mississippi - 59%
California - 55%
New Mexico - 51%

National - 72%

2012 share of state electorate that is white (31 state map)

(states in grey had no exit poll in 2012)

Compare that to the white population overall:

Alabama: 66.6%
Alaska: 63.1%
Arizona: 57.1%
Arkansas: 73.9%
California: 39.4%
Colorado: 69.6%
Connecticut: 70.3%
Delaware: 64.6%
D.C.: 35.5%
Florida: 57.0%
Georgia: 55.1%
Hawaii: 22.8%
Idaho: 83.5%
Illinois: 63.0%
Indiana: 81.0%
Iowa: 88.0%
Kansas: 77.5%
Kentucky: 85.9%
Louisiana: 59.9%
Maine: 94.1%
Maryland: 53.9%
Massachusetts: 75.8%
Michigan: 76.2%
Minnesota: 82.4%
Mississippi: 57.6%
Missouri: 80.6%
Montana: 87.2%
Nebraska: 81.4%
Nevada: 52.9%
New Hampshire: 91.9%
New Jersey: 58.2%
New Mexico: 39.8%
New York: 57.6%
North Carolina: 64.7%
North Dakota: 88.1%
Ohio: 80.7%
Oklahoma: 67.9%
Oregon: 77.8%
Pennsylvania: 78.8%
Rhode Island: 75.9%
South Carolina: 64.0%
South Dakota: 83.8%
Tennessee: 75.1%
Texas: 44.5%
Utah: 79.9%
Vermont: 94.0%
Virginia: 64.1%
Washington: 71.6%
West Virginia: 92.9%
Wisconsin: 82.8%
Wyoming: 84.6%

[ElectionsGuy]

How did the R's lose MN even if they won the white vote? MN is all mostly white.

Did the R's win the white vote in NY State because in the original map it was in gray color.

In Minnesota the white vote went 49-48 Romney, the black parts of Minneapolis and such is the reason why Minnesota is the way it is. Wisconsin same story 51-48 Romney with Black/Hispanic parts of Milwaukee finishing the job. NY it was completely tied 49-49 so yes that's why I put it as a Toss-Up.

[ElectionsGuy]

How did the R's lose MN even if they won the white vote? MN is all mostly white.

Did the R's win the white vote in NY State because in the original map it was in gray color.

In Minnesota the white vote went 49-48 Romney, the black parts of Minneapolis and such is the reason why Minnesota is the way it is. Wisconsin same story 51-48 Romney with Black/Hispanic parts of Milwaukee finishing the job. NY it was completely tied 49-49 so yes that's why I put it as a Toss-Up.

It makes sense. Mitt Romney was about the whitest candidate to ever run for president.

Newt Gingrich? Even his hair was white.

[ElectionsGuy]

It would've been a beautiful electoral map too. The real problem isn't how we do with minorities, but I would like to see us reach out to them without telling them the whole world owes them something for being a minority. The real problem is that Democrats say words like fairness and oppression in order to cause minorities to come to conclusions that the whole world owes them something because they're part of a minority. This leads to liberal voting on all levels. Once the patronization stops, the minority vote will balance out. Now the question is, what can we do to prevent Democrats from pandering? They have the power and we have the numbers. Whose with me?

You know, Republicans could make a lot of progress with us "oppressed and entitled minorities" if YOU WOULD JUST SHUT THE F**K  UP.

Do you two have a bad relationship?

[ElectionsGuy]

It would've been a beautiful electoral map too. The real problem isn't how we do with minorities, but I would like to see us reach out to them without telling them the whole world owes them something for being a minority. The real problem is that Democrats say words like fairness and oppression in order to cause minorities to come to conclusions that the whole world owes them something because they're part of a minority. This leads to liberal voting on all levels. Once the patronization stops, the minority vote will balance out. Now the question is, what can we do to prevent Democrats from pandering? They have the power and we have the numbers. Whose with me?

You know, Republicans could make a lot of progress with us "oppressed and entitled minorities" if YOU WOULD JUST SHUT THE F**K  UP.

Do you two have a bad relationship?

I was actually starting to like him until this comment.

Oh OK, I guess if you are a true independent any partisan talk from both sides bothers you, or you could be a leaning D independent.

[ElectionsGuy]

How did the R's lose MN even if they won the white vote? MN is all mostly white.

Did the R's win the white vote in NY State because in the original map it was in gray color.

In Minnesota the white vote went 49-48 Romney, the black parts of Minneapolis and such is the reason why Minnesota is the way it is. Wisconsin same story 51-48 Romney with Black/Hispanic parts of Milwaukee finishing the job. NY it was completely tied 49-49 so yes that's why I put it as a Toss-Up.

It makes sense. Mitt Romney was about the whitest candidate to ever run for president.

Newt Gingrich? Even his hair was white.

I meant as an actual nominee lol.

Ron Paul? Never mind this is off-topic.

[ElectionsGuy]

It would've been a beautiful electoral map too. The real problem isn't how we do with minorities, but I would like to see us reach out to them without telling them the whole world owes them something for being a minority. The real problem is that Democrats say words like fairness and oppression in order to cause minorities to come to conclusions that the whole world owes them something because they're part of a minority. This leads to liberal voting on all levels. Once the patronization stops, the minority vote will balance out. Now the question is, what can we do to prevent Democrats from pandering? They have the power and we have the numbers. Whose with me?

You know, Republicans could make a lot of progress with us "oppressed and entitled minorities" if YOU WOULD JUST SHUT THE F**K  UP.

Do you two have a bad relationship?

I was actually starting to like him until this comment.

Oh OK, I guess if you are a true independent any partisan talk from both sides bothers you, or you could be a leaning D independent.

I am so freaking tired of this "minorities are entitled", "minorities vote Democrat because Democrats promise them free things", etc. bullcrap. That was literally the most insulting comment i have read on the Atlas. Republicans, such as Mitt Romney or barfbag here, like to make condescending and ignorant comments about minorities, then wonder why they keep losing elections.

My political views come from a history book, not idealogical works. I feel no strong partisan attachments, but as of late the GOP has simply pissed me off with just plain stupidity, homophobia, and racism.

I really wish I could be a policy advisor for a prominent GOP politician, or a politician myself, to stop this stuff. That thread about "New GOP Coalitions"? Yeah, I want to make that happen. I hate how it seems politics has almost not changed at all since the 1960s.

Why should we vote for people who dedicate their entire political lives to hating us, whether we be gay, brown, black, or poor?

I really hope you don't think of the GOP as racist, I am heavily anti-racism and always will be in the party of Lincoln. Martin Luther King, a republican always said that a person should be treated by the content of their character and not by the color of their skin. Today we see racism as people with less ability get accepted to colleges because of their minority status, while a white person with more ability will not get accepted simply because their white. That is racism, and not Chris Matthews definition (The Idea the Whites should rule all others) but the REAL defintion copied straight from dictionary.com

a belief or doctrine that inherent differences among the various human races determine cultural or individual achievement, usually involving the idea that one's own race is superior and has the right to rule others.

Racism comes from all different races, and that's the thing the D's can't accept. This also can be connected to income inequality, which is the belief in which a person that works harder gets the same amount than a person working less.

Anyways sorry for the rant just needed to get it out there and express my frustration with the "racist GOP". The Dems try to paint the GOP as racist, women-hating, gay-hating group which is a false narrative that has worked for a long time. Point is I hope you don't think were all racist, I am really embarrased that the current GOP is like this, I might become a libertarian soon, IDK.

[ElectionsGuy]

It would've been a beautiful electoral map too. The real problem isn't how we do with minorities, but I would like to see us reach out to them without telling them the whole world owes them something for being a minority. The real problem is that Democrats say words like fairness and oppression in order to cause minorities to come to conclusions that the whole world owes them something because they're part of a minority. This leads to liberal voting on all levels. Once the patronization stops, the minority vote will balance out. Now the question is, what can we do to prevent Democrats from pandering? They have the power and we have the numbers. Whose with me?

You know, Republicans could make a lot of progress with us "oppressed and entitled minorities" if YOU WOULD JUST SHUT THE F**K  UP.

Do you two have a bad relationship?

I was actually starting to like him until this comment.

Oh OK, I guess if you are a true independent any partisan talk from both sides bothers you, or you could be a leaning D independent.

I am so freaking tired of this "minorities are entitled", "minorities vote Democrat because Democrats promise them free things", etc. bullcrap. That was literally the most insulting comment i have read on the Atlas. Republicans, such as Mitt Romney or barfbag here, like to make condescending and ignorant comments about minorities, then wonder why they keep losing elections.

My political views come from a history book, not idealogical works. I feel no strong partisan attachments, but as of late the GOP has simply pissed me off with just plain stupidity, homophobia, and racism.

I really wish I could be a policy advisor for a prominent GOP politician, or a politician myself, to stop this stuff. That thread about "New GOP Coalitions"? Yeah, I want to make that happen. I hate how it seems politics has almost not changed at all since the 1960s.

Why should we vote for people who dedicate their entire political lives to hating us, whether we be gay, brown, black, or poor?

I really hope you don't think of the GOP as racist, I am heavily anti-racism and always will be in the party of Lincoln. Martin Luther King, a republican always said that a person should be treated by the content of their character and not by the color of their skin. Today we see racism as people with less ability get accepted to colleges because of their minority status, while a white person with more ability will not get accepted simply because their white. That is racism, and not Chris Matthews definition (The Idea the Whites should rule all others) but the REAL defintion copied straight from dictionary.com

a belief or doctrine that inherent differences among the various human races determine cultural or individual achievement, usually involving the idea that one's own race is superior and has the right to rule others.

Racism comes from all different races, and that's the thing the D's can't accept. This also can be connected to income inequality, which is the belief in which a person that works harder gets the same amount than a person working less.

Anyways sorry for the rant just needed to get it out there and express my frustration with the "racist GOP". The Dems try to paint the GOP as racist, women-hating, gay-hating group which is a false narrative that has worked for a long time. Point is I hope you don't think were all racist, I am really embarrased that the current GOP is like this, I might become a libertarian soon, IDK.

I don't view the GOP as the "racist party", and yes, I understand that racism is not just a white thing. However, the GOP has done a horrible job at actively disowning the xenophobes that have set up camp in the far-right corner of the party? Am I saying that all Repubs/conservatives are racist/homophobic/Islamophobic?

No, a thousand times no.

I do believe the GOP is a good party made up of good people.
I also believe the Democratic Party is a good party made up of good people.
Both want the best for the US, they just have different ideas for how to get there.
I’m not one of those people that gets upset about partisan politics.
I don’t believe there is a “right” and a “wrong” in politics.
That’s why I’m an independent, and am actually very centrist in my views(Liberals often mistake me for a conservative, vice versa with the conservs. Both often think I am either uninformed or stubborn).


But here’s my problem: when the Republican nominee for the Presidency of the United States makes comments like barfbag’s, when GOP politicians make obscenely racist and insensitive remarks, when they actively take stances that oppose gay and lesbian Americans for no logically sound reason,  that is a huge indication of the attitude problem of the GOP. For people who are not as politically informed as we are on this forum, they get a horrifically negative perception of the GOP. Thus, they vote against you.

There is so much on domestic and economic policy that I agree with the GOP. Race-based ffirmative action(which actually benefits white women the most, and hurts Asians such as myself more than whites), is one of them. I support an economic affirmative action that is color-blind. I want a government that is effective and small. I want to consider myself a part of the Republican Party so badly.

But when the people the Republican Party nominates as their “leaders” and “spokespersons” actively opposes me as a person, for being gay, and for being biracial, I start to wonder whether I can truly make my home in the GOP.

Maybe in 10 years as our Libertarian-leaning generation begins to take over, but in 2013? No.

Sorry, that rant was not directed towards you, it was directed to the people who have a closed mind when it comes to racism and such with the GOP. I myself am heavily disappointed with the GOP in general with comments that it has made, and wanted to express that disappointment. I was actually thinking of choosing an independent like you at one time but I figured it would be way too obvious that I was R-Leaning and not a true independent. I respect your non partisan critiques of the GOP and hope it gets better. The more I get dissapointed the more I want to switch to a libertarian/independent, and yes I would love a libertarian-leaning take over, that would be what is best for our nation and for our government.

[ElectionsGuy]

Update: Now that I come to think of it, Arkansas and Tennessee have very similar demographics

Arkansas:
73.9% White, 15.6% Black, 6.8% Hispanic.
Tennessee:
75.1% White, 17.0% Black, 4.8% Hispanic.

And there about the same on the presidential level too...

Arkansas:
60.6% Romney, 36.9% Obama.
Tennessee:
59.5% Romney, 39.1% Obama.

Do you think it's possible that Romney could have cracked >70% in Tennessee? Romney for sure got >70% in Arkansas because McCain got 68% while getting 59% and black turnout was lower. George W. Bush got 65% of the white vote while getting 57% of the vote in Tennessee, also black turnout and % for democrats with it have gone up since then. I think he either got right over 70% or got close. What do you think?

Additional Note: With Kentucky I'm pretty sure Romney only got high 60's as only 8% of the population is black.