How Much Further Right Can Appalachia Go?

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I live in the Appalachian region currently even though my home state at this time is Florida. This is a great topic too. Obama is a horrible candidate for the mid south and Appalachian region due to his political history and stances on social issues. It has likely joined the deep south for now, but if the Democrats can get themselves turned around at least to where they were in the 1990's, then they may have chances again in Tennessee and Missouri while the other Appalachian states would move to light red or likely GOP. Yes, I know Missouri isn't in the Appalachian region but I'm just making a point. Anyhow it's very unlikely that the Democratic Party will move closer to the center anytime soon so the thought of them getting turned around is a big hypothetical. They've done far too much to alienate the common man who lives off the land and hunts for his own food.

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This article describes exactly what is happening in the Appalachian. It's a good read.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/on-the-trail/the-shift-of-king-coal-20130114

In other words, Big Coal is trying to buy the election for the Republicans, a party that's done nothing good for the region in modern times.

Do you support the war on American coal?

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I wouldn't be surprised if it looks like the triad of Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho within the next couple of decades. When we look at the black vote we find over 90% voting Democratic and the Hispanic vote is getting there unless our party does something very soon. We shouldn't underestimate how partisan an ethnicity could go. Whites in general will probably not ever get to this point, but in such a rural region where the most important issues are having guns for hunting and eating, protecting your family, and church attendance, and agriculture, I wouldn't say the trend is over. What I will say is that the last two elections may have deceived us as to the speed of the trend because Obama is a very poor candidate for the Appalachian region. If we see similar results to 2008 or even a little better for Democrats, then it shouldn't be mistaken as a sign for a reversal trend or even a stoppage in Appalachia's trend to the right. Many whites in this region also feel more abandonment from the Democrats they once voted for in comparison to whites in states that never belonged to the confederacy or old south.

[barfbag]

This article describes exactly what is happening in the Appalachian. It's a good read.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/on-the-trail/the-shift-of-king-coal-20130114

In other words, Big Coal is trying to buy the election for the Republicans, a party that's done nothing good for the region in modern times.

Do you support the war on American coal?

Do you support the war on American green energy?

No, look at my thread on debating the environment and energy. Do you support the war on coal? Are you opposed to the war on drugs or the war on terror? Look at my environmental thread and you'll find I'm very much and environmentalist. Coal causes dangerous pollution for our atmosphere. I'm just encouraging you to explain what you don't like about coal.

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I wouldn't be surprised if it looks like the triad of Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho within the next couple of decades.

It won't. Also, the only state that's all Appalachia is West Virginia. In Kentucky, the big cities will soon be outvoting Appalachia.

It's hard to say. Don't be surprised if the Appalachian states trend left next time without Obama on the ticket and then trend slowly to the right again. It will take time to tell. Trends don't go on forever, so it is likely the case it will level off before it gets to the level of Wyoming for example.

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Next Republican targets are downballot:

US Senate West Virginia Class II (Rockefeller) 2014
Hold Kentucky II (McConnell) 2014

US Senate West Virginia Class III (Manchin) 2016
Hold Kentucky III (Paul) 2016

US Senate Missouri Class I (McCaskill) 2018

Kentucky House -- Democratic since 1921
Hold Kentucky Senate -- R since 2000

Kentucky state offices in 2015 -- Governor, SOS, AG are all Ds

Missouri Governor in 2016 -- Jay Nixon D 2008-12
Missouri downballots 2016

West Virginia House -- D since 1930
West Virginia Senate -- D since 1932

West Virginia Governor and downballot offices 2014

A lot of those aren't likely to change. State and federal are often apples and oranges when it comes to party competition.

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I think there is still room to grow for the GOP in Appalachia. Take for example West Virginia. There is no reason for why such a state should be represented by two Democrats in the Senate.

There absolutely is: it's still one of the poorest states.

That is true, but what are the Democrats doing about it. West-Virginia was a one-party state for much of the 20th century, and it is still poor.

The problem is that the Democrats don’t have a coherent strategy to actually help the working class in these regions. Gun control, immigration reform and climate change legislation might be sound policies, but it isn’t going to help the working class voters in places like West-Virginia.

What is needed is some sort of industrial policy, which both the major parties lack.

The damning thing about states like West Virginia is that while poor countries can "catch up" to rich ones over time, poor regions of countries almost never catch up to rich regions within the same country. If a poor region is fortunate enough to have some sort of natural resource, its fortunes will generally rise and fall with demand for that resource. Appalachia has always been the poorest region of the United States and always will be. Just as southern Italy and Sicily have always been the poorest region of Italy and always will be.

Why would anyone make capital investments in West Virginia when there are so many more attractive places within the country to put it? Why would a bright West Virginian who wants to be a biomedical researcher or a venture capitalist stay in West Virginia? They wouldn't and they don't. So the state consistently hemorrhages human capital and never attracts financial capital.

You want an industrial policy for West Virginia? Move all the people out. Exploit the hell out of the places where there's coal and turn the rest into a national park. Maybe put up a few rustic cabins and hire some actors to dress the part of mountain folk for the tourists.

Well said and I mostly agree. Texas is a good place to invest. People can still be innovative with starting their own companies, but resources are critical for business.