Key Findings
Three-term incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor is in deep trouble. Pryor is in a dead heat with potential Republican candidate, first-year Arkansas Congressman Tom Cotton. Pryor receives support from 41% of likely voters, while Cotton wins 40%.
However, the 19% of remaining voters who say they are undecided have negative views of Pryor and are disproportionately Republicans and Independents.
As is true in many cases, a longtime incumbent such as Pryor who barely gets 40% of the vote in polling has a hard time getting re-elected.
Methodology
On June 22-23, 2013, Basswood Research conducted a statewide survey of likely general election voters in Arkansas. The survey was conducted by live professional interviewers by telephone. The sample size was 600, with a margin of error of +/- 4%, at a 95% confidence interval. Interviews were geographically distributed to reflect actual voting patterns in Arkansas general elections.
http://www.senateconservatives.com/site/post/2155/new-poll-spells-trouble-for-mark-pryor
