Devils30
YaBB God
Posts: 4,967
Political Matrix E: -2.06, S: -4.00
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« on: June 19, 2013, 05:14:16 PM » |
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I'd give Hillary a really good shot at winning FL even against Rubio in 2016, she's definitely a better candidate for Florida than Obama ever was.
1) better with old folks 2) anyone who does well in the northeast (as in 60% plus) and wins big in the midwest will do well in Florida, Hillary probably runs better than Obama here in this still fairly white demographic in the upper midwest and New England. 3) GOP is pretty much maxed out with southern whites, see northern FL 2012 4) Hillary does fine with Latinos, will probably have no trouble winning in the Orlando area. Of course she'd drop a bit from Obama in Dade County. 5) The home-state effect may be less for Rubio compared to what like Bill Clinton in Arkansas. Most Floridians are first or second generation and formed political identities before moving here, similar reasoning explains why everyone down here still roots for their home sports teams from New York, Boston, Chicago etc. 6) Hillary will be stronger in Palm Beach (a lot of NYers) and places like Volusia with white working-class voters.
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