India 2014

[jaichind]

CNN-IBN did a huge poll across India and is releasing them over this week.  Today they released WB and Bihar.  See

http://exitopinionpollsindia.blogspot.com/2013/07/cnnibn-july13-opinion-poll-west-bengal_9993.html



I think the decline of Left Front is overdone in this poll.  CNN-IBM analysts claim that Left Front will take a couple of cycles to recover after losing domination over 35 years.  I do not buy it.  Left Front is quite resilient  and will be back.  I also really doubt INC can get to 22% in vote share.  And if it did that means TMC lost a good deal of its base in which I do not see how they keep 32% of the vote.



INC will be kingmaker.  INC-RJD-LJP or INC-JD(U) will sweep the polls.  If all 4 run separately I think RJD-LJP will do better than this polls suggest.

[Sbane]

Is the BJP even going to seriously contest West Bengal? They may run a candidate in Kolkata somewhere but I doubt anything much beyond that. I wonder where that BJP vote will go. It very well could go to the INC since Mamata is not popula with the BJP type crowd in WB.

[ag]

I wonder where that BJP vote will go. It very well could go to the INC since Mamata is not popula with the BJP type crowd in WB.

That alone should be reason enough for BJP to contest.

[jaichind]

BJP actually has some support in urban areas.  Like Telegana and AP, BJP supports the Gorkhaland statehood movement and has an understanding with GJM which is the Gorkhaland party.  This polls says that perhaps TMC might consider supporting NDA after the election also long as Modi is not PM.  TMC is dependent on the Muslim vote but if BJP goes to 16% then it might make a sense to do a deal as long as Modi is out. 
Of course, if this poll is accurate, and TMC gets 25 seats, it could lead to a dangerous situation where the national government might hinge on TMC support.  The thought of a wonen as irrational, egotistical, and unstable as Banerjee being the hinge for the government is quite scary.  Of course I could says same thing about Jayalalitha and Mayawati. 

[jaichind]

I wonder where that BJP vote will go. It very well could go to the INC since Mamata is not popula with the BJP type crowd in WB.

That alone should be reason enough for BJP to contest.

Correct, the jump in support in this poll for INC and BJP is merely a function of hopelessness.  The choice is the Left Front which ran the WB state into the ground and the irrational regime of Banerjee which is really cloning some of the worst policies of Left Front.  INC and BJP has done nothing to earn these votes but they might come anyway.   

[FredLindq]

I would that +6% in West Bengal and +8% in Bihar is good news for BJP. The might loose even more seats in Bihar if INC teams up with JD (U) or RJD.

But if the can manage a gain off 6-8% in the hindu heartland the might in fact sweep it and gain seats as well in UP. Am I correnct?

[Sbane]

The swing towards the BJP in West Bengal is likely due to the upper caste conservative anti-left vote swinging from TMC to the BJP. In Bihar, perhaps it is due to that same constituency switching from voting for the JD, which was with BJP at the time, to the BJP.

[FredLindq]

But what are the chanses that INC ropes in both TMC and RJD ior JD(U) in UPA?

[Хahar 🤔]

One wonders if the BJP will encounter the same issues with translating an increase in votes to an increase in seats in Karnataka.

[jaichind]

One wonders if the BJP will encounter the same issues with translating an increase in votes to an increase in seats in Karnataka.

Well, if we are talking about increase in votes for BJP in Karnataka relative to 2009 then for sure it will translate into more seats.  BJP got 19 out of 28 seats with 41% of the vote in 2009 so for sure BJP has crossed the threshold to get seats on its unlike WB.  Of course most likely BJP will lose vote share in 2014 relative to 2009 and will be in the high single digits in terms of seats.  CNN-IBN poll will cover Karnataka so we will see what their poll comes up with.  I am pretty sure it will come up with something like INC 35%, BJP 20%, JD(S) 15%. 

[FredLindq]

It's the loss in Karnataka due to the splits in BJP. And if the splinters returen to BJP war effekt Will that have?

[jaichind]

CNN-IBN poll now for Karnataka, TN, AP.

http://exitopinionpollsindia.blogspot.com/2013/07/cnnibn-july13-opinion-poll-karnataka.html

TN is mostly about alliances.  INC or BJP tieup with DMK or DMDK or AIADMK would change these numbers in a drastic way.  Small players like PMK and MDMK will make a difference as well.  Will AIADMK keep the alliance with Left Front which is also has some strength in TN is also a question.  This info is just the first stage of getting overall strength before alliances are formed.  Then it makes sense to poll each alliance strength.  AIADMK is in honeymoon period so its strength will go down from here.  Of course it still comes down to alliances.  


Looks like I guessed the BJP and JD(S) vote share in this poll correctly, but not INC.  Not sure this poll takes into account the fact that KJP might merge into BJP.  Although that impact will be limited.   INC is in honeymoon period so INC numbers will go down from here.


As I mentioned before, YSRCP actually hurts TDP more than INC as it sucks opposition energy toward it and away from TDP.  TRS's gains means the Telegana issue cannot be ignored anymore.  

[jaichind]

It seems Modi is making a positive difference.  BJP vote share is up across the board in Bihar, WB, TN and AP.  Of course in terms of seats BJP is losing relative to 2009 because its loses in Karnataka and loss of ally in Bihar.  In other states increase in votes does not win seats.

[jaichind]

It's the loss in Karnataka due to the splits in BJP. And if the splinters returen to BJP war effekt Will that have?

Well, even if BJP, KJP, BSRCP ran as one unit in 2013 Karnataka assembly elections they would still have been beaten.  A reunion will help BJP down the line but too late to help in 2014.  Also, lets be clear, KJP and BSRCP are tained with corruption chrages with its leaders so BJP will lose the corruption issue if it reuniteds with KJP and BSRCP.  BJP will lose seats from 19 to high single digits.  That most likely cannot be avoided.  How JDS(U) and INC does is still up for grabs. 

[jaichind]

CNN-IBN poll has some info on AP survey in Telegana issue.

[FredLindq]

But has BJP gained due to fielding more candidates or due to an increase in support? If INC joins hands with JD (S) then BJP is doomed in Karnataka.

I can not see Any realistic chanse of a BJP winning in 2014... BJP might gain votes due to fielding more candidates, but loose seats due to lack of allies. It might even become wourse if INC teams up with the right allies.

Check, mate Modi.

[jaichind]

As I am thinking how Banerjee and TMC has been acting and how she says that she will not support Modi for PM but does not say she will not support NDA.  Perhaps the entire BJP and Modi gig could be a one giant con job by the BJP moderates.  BJP moderates know they need parties like AIADMK, TMC, BJD, JD(U), and TDP to win power.  But the BJP hardliners want Modi.  So what do they do?  Agree to Modi as leader.  This will give the AIADMK, TMC, BJD, JD(U), and TDP a boggyman.  A Modi led BJP will gain votes but not as many seats.  It could, if it is lucky, crush INC in the BJP vs INC areas and end up with 160-170 seats with a rump NDA at 185-195.  NDA will be ahead of UPA but cannot form a government.  Then the BJP moderates jumps into action and push to make deals with AIADMK, TMC, BJD, JD(U), and TDP for them to support NDA government as long as Modi goes.  AIADMK, TMC, BJD, JD(U), and TDP  can tell their supporters that they accomplished the goal of removing Modi and then support NDA.  BJP moderates win the entire game defeating UPA, roping in allies to control the BJP hardliners and marginalizing the BJP hardlines as well as getting rid of Modi.

[Vosem]

As I am thinking how Banerjee and TMC has been acting and how she says that she will not support Modi for PM but does not say she will not support NDA.  Perhaps the entire BJP and Modi gig could be a one giant con job by the BJP moderates.  BJP moderates know they need parties like AIADMK, TMC, BJD, JD(U), and TDP to win power.  But the BJP hardliners want Modi.  So what do they do?  Agree to Modi as leader.  This will give the AIADMK, TMC, BJD, JD(U), and TDP a boggyman.  A Modi led BJP will gain votes but not as many seats.  It could, if it is lucky, crush INC in the BJP vs INC areas and end up with 160-170 seats with a rump NDA at 185-195.  NDA will be ahead of UPA but cannot form a government.  Then the BJP moderates jumps into action and push to make deals with AIADMK, TMC, BJD, JD(U), and TDP for them to support NDA government as long as Modi goes.  AIADMK, TMC, BJD, JD(U), and TDP  can tell their supporters that they accomplished the goal of removing Modi and then support NDA.  BJP moderates win the entire game defeating UPA, roping in allies to control the BJP hardliners and marginalizing the BJP hardlines as well as getting rid of Modi.

Who would be PM in that scenario?

[jaichind]

Who would be PM in that scenario?

Most likely Rajnath Singh, ex-CM of UP and current BJP Chairman, as a compromise candidate.   Advani might be another candidate but RSS is now hostile to Advani.  Advani used to be leader of the BJP hard line faction but has become more moderate over the last few years earning him the ire of RSS.  RSS does not like Modi either for personality reasons but at least they share the same ideology ergo RSS backed Modi to block Advani   Note that if this is what plays out then there is a risk that the RSS would create a split of the BJP with Modi and create a Modi/RSS party.  Rajnath Singh has good relationship with RSS and although does not get along well with Advani but since the BJP moderate will get its way they should accept Rajnath Singh.   

[jaichind]

Likely TN alliance.

AIADMK alliance
AIADMK
Left Front
MDMK

DMK alliance
DMK
INC
PMK

DMDK alliance
DMDK
BJP?

If DMK gets desperate it might create a super grand anti-AIADMK alliance and rope in DMDK.  DMK is in a trickly situation.  It is transitioning from one generation to another.  Karunanidhi who led DMK since 1969 is finally retiring.  His son, Stalin (yes that is his name), is taking over. TN politics are usually dominated by dueling powerful bigger-than-life leaders.  Stalin will not measure up against Jayalalitha as he has siblings that will challange his rise to the top of DMK so at the start so DMK will have to accept a span in the opposition for Jayalalitha to make a mistake.  Note that Jayalalitha went through the same thing in 1987 when MGR, leader of AIADMK and rival of Karunanidhi passed away.  The AIADMK civil war allowed DMK back into power in 1989 which was going to last a while.  Rajiv Gandhi assassination by LTTE accelerated Jayalalitha's AIADMK's return since it came out that the DMK had connections to LTTE leading to the complete collapse of DMK support in 1991.  If Stalin had to deal with a DMK civil war it could  mean AIADMK domination for a while unelss  Jayalalitha makes a big blunder.  Being linked to an assassination to a former PM is a big blunder.  BTW, what is ironic is that while DMK has links to LTTE which murdered her husband, Sonia Gandhi had no issues forming an alliance with DMK to beat NDA back in 2003.

[Хahar 🤔]

One wonders if the BJP will encounter the same issues with translating an increase in votes to an increase in seats in Karnataka.

Well, if we are talking about increase in votes for BJP in Karnataka relative to 2009 then for sure it will translate into more seats.  BJP got 19 out of 28 seats with 41% of the vote in 2009 so for sure BJP has crossed the threshold to get seats on its unlike WB.  Of course most likely BJP will lose vote share in 2014 relative to 2009 and will be in the high single digits in terms of seats.  CNN-IBN poll will cover Karnataka so we will see what their poll comes up with.  I am pretty sure it will come up with something like INC 35%, BJP 20%, JD(S) 15%. 

Oh, of course. I meant an increase in votes relative to the start of the campaign.

[ag]

It seems Modi is making a positive difference.  BJP vote share is up across the board in Bihar, WB, TN and AP.  Of course in terms of seats BJP is losing relative to 2009 because its loses in Karnataka and loss of ally in Bihar.  In other states increase in votes does not win seats.

Keep in mind, that the voting intentions for also-runs early on do not take into account the eventual Duvergerian effect. BJP is a national party, people have heard of it, and some might now be saying they'd vote for it. However, once the voting day is approaching, it will turn out that a) BJP is clearly not in the running for their seat; b) the BJP candidate in their district is a complete nobody, as compared to the real players running for the locally dominant parties; c) the BJP local organization and campaign is weak or non-existent (nobody is going to be campaigning hard in a district, where the best feasible outcome is the third or fourth place - that would be wasting the resources). While I don't remember what it was back before the last Indian elections, I am pretty sure that national party vote intentions early on must be overstated in places, where they have no chance. The actual vote totals will be lower - unless, that is, some of the candidates actually make it a real run.

[jaichind]

Just to understand how strong Telegana movement can be for those which are dedicated to it.  In the 2010-2011 when there was a explicit TRS campaign for Telegana, over 600 people in Telegana committed suicide to put pressure on UPA government to create Telegana.  Imagine if there was a movement to create Long Island State out of NY State and over 600 people in Long Island committed suicide to pressure the US congress to create Long Island State.  While I think smaller states work better in India I am not sure creating Telegana would make things that much better at the ground level.   

[FredLindq]

So what are your conclusions off all this polls? That it is all about alliances? Has it been Any diskussions about protportional elections in order to get rid off all this alliance bickering?

[jaichind]

CNN-IBN poll on Gujarat and Maharastra

Gujarat
                  2009                          2013
            Votes     Seats        Votes     Seats 
BJP        47          15              56     22 (20-24)
INC       43           11             34       4  (  2- 6)

While BJP will gain due to Modi favorite son factor.  I think the swing is bigger than it will end up being.  There were polls in 2004 and 2009 with BJP sweeping INC in Gugarat 26-0 but the INC machine always come to life right before the election to win some seats.  I think it will end up being  something like 19-7.


Maharastra
                  2009                          2013
            Votes     Seats        Votes     Seats 
INC+      39          25             43     25 (23-27)
BJP+       35          20            36     20 (18-22)
MNS         4             0             5       1  ( 0 - 2)
OTH       22             3            16      2   (0 - 4)

INC+ is INC and NCP, BJP+ BJP, SS, and RPI.  That INC+ will gain votes is hard to believe given all the corruption and now economic disappointment.  That BJP+ will not gain in Maharastra given all the tailwind and Modi is a surpirse to me.  But if this is the case then this is bad news for BJP.