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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Largest Cities to Go Republican in Each State
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Author Topic: Largest Cities to Go Republican in Each State  (Read 5461 times)
RedSLC
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« Reply #50 on: June 26, 2013, 02:17:50 pm »


RI: Only two towns voted for Romney. Of the two, Scituate is larger.


Actually, there was a third town in R.I., East Greenwich, that Romney won. It's larger than both West Greenwich and Scituate.

Wrong. Obama won East Greenwich 3649-3535. While Obama got only 49.9% of the vote there, he still won the town. So Scituate is still the correct answer.

Are you sure? I looked at the state election board website. The vote numbers you gave are correct, but the website says it was Romney 3649 votes, not Obama.

I need more posts before I can post links, but the link to the site is the first reference on the wikipedia article for United States Presidential election in Rhode Island, 2008.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #51 on: June 26, 2013, 02:19:35 pm »
« Edited: June 26, 2013, 02:26:11 pm by traininthedistance »

As for the remaining states:

OR: Medford voted for McCain, and Jackson County swung toward Romney, so it almost definitely voted for Romney. As for larger cities, there are only 7: Portland, Salem, Eugene, Gresham, Hillsboro, Beaverton, and Bend. Portland, Eugene, Hillsboro, and Beaverton are all solidly Democratic. Gresham almost definitely voted for Obama in 2012 since it voted 58% for Obama in 2008 and Multnomah County had only a very small swing toward Romney. Salem voted 56% for Obama in 2008, and is getting more Hispanic - hardly a recipe for larger Republican vote shares. Bend also voted 56% for Obama, and Deschutes County swung only about 2% toward Romney, so it probably voted for Obama in 2012 as well. That leaves Medford as the very likely answer.


I have confirmed that Obama won Bend by looking at the Deschutes County precinct results.

I have also confirmed that Romney won Medford by looking at Jackson County results.

BTW I find it astounding that Obama won Jackson County in 2008 yet still lost Medford. Instances where a democrat wins a county but loses the largest city are extremely rare.

This happened in Sandoval, NM in 2012.  All the Republicans there are in the large suburb of Rio Rancho, whereas the rest of the county (which Obama narrowly won) is heavily Hispanic and Native.  Pretty sure Obama won Rio Rancho in 2008, but it usually tilts R and it looks like it narrowly flipped in 2012.

Similarly, there are probably a couple rural Black Belt counties where the white population is concentrated in larger towns, or other tilt-D suburban counties where the conservative areas just happen to be less subdivided than the liberal ones.  I was wondering if Burlington County, NJ would be one- since its largest town, Evesham, is several points to the right of the county as a whole, but it appears Obama narrowly won Evesham in 2012, so no.
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RedSLC
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« Reply #52 on: June 26, 2013, 02:39:29 pm »

As for the remaining states:

OR: Medford voted for McCain, and Jackson County swung toward Romney, so it almost definitely voted for Romney. As for larger cities, there are only 7: Portland, Salem, Eugene, Gresham, Hillsboro, Beaverton, and Bend. Portland, Eugene, Hillsboro, and Beaverton are all solidly Democratic. Gresham almost definitely voted for Obama in 2012 since it voted 58% for Obama in 2008 and Multnomah County had only a very small swing toward Romney. Salem voted 56% for Obama in 2008, and is getting more Hispanic - hardly a recipe for larger Republican vote shares. Bend also voted 56% for Obama, and Deschutes County swung only about 2% toward Romney, so it probably voted for Obama in 2012 as well. That leaves Medford as the very likely answer.


I have confirmed that Obama won Bend by looking at the Deschutes County precinct results.

I have also confirmed that Romney won Medford by looking at Jackson County results.

BTW I find it astounding that Obama won Jackson County in 2008 yet still lost Medford. Instances where a democrat wins a county but loses the largest city are extremely rare.

This happened in Sandoval, NM in 2012.  All the Republicans there are in the large suburb of Rio Rancho, whereas the rest of the county (which Obama narrowly won) is heavily Hispanic and Native.  Pretty sure Obama won Rio Rancho in 2008, but it usually tilts R and it looks like it narrowly flipped in 2012.

Similarly, there are probably a couple rural Black Belt counties where the white population is concentrated in larger towns, or other tilt-D suburban counties where the conservative areas just happen to be less subdivided than the liberal ones.  I was wondering if Burlington County, NJ would be one- since its largest town, Evesham, is several points to the right of the county as a whole, but it appears Obama narrowly won Evesham in 2012, so no.

I think you're right about the black belt counties. Going on DRA, I discovered another one: Obama very narrowly won Oktibehha County, Mississippi in 2008 (by 6 votes, to be exact), but narrowly lost the county's largest city, Starkville, by just over 100. Interestingly, both the city and the county are 62% white, which was probably one of Obama's best performances with the white vote anywhere in Mississippi, likely because of the presence of MSU.

Someone should start a thread on this kind of thing. It looks very interesting.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #53 on: June 26, 2013, 02:50:22 pm »

Delaware is really a mess. Their voting district lines only occasionally correspond to city / township boundaries.

I tried the math on Hockessin. In those six voting districts that fully fall within the township boundaries, or only include a minor part of a neighbouring township, Romney won 3071:3060. There are, however, three more voting districts that cover a relevant portion of Hockessin, but also of neighbouring townships. They went 1884:1756 Obama. The total of all districts that include parts of Hockessin is 4944:4877 Obama.

Looking at the above figures, I would say that there is a slight chance that Rpmney won Hockessin, bot it is more likely to have narrowly gone to Obama.

If you can post a list of other towns / townships that you haven't checked yet, and of which you think they may have gone to Romney, I can over the next days do some more number-crunching.

Results by voting district are published here (I had problems with their download function, had to copy and paste date from the html results page):
http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/unofresl.shtml

The precinct maps for New Castle County are here (the 2012-2022 version applies to the General election):
http://electionsncc.delaware.gov/senate/senate.shtml
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RedSLC
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« Reply #54 on: June 26, 2013, 11:44:58 pm »

Delaware is really a mess. Their voting district lines only occasionally correspond to city / township boundaries.

Oklahoma is like that too. I tried to figure out whether Obama or McCain won the small city of Okmulgee in 2008, but precinct shapes make it just about impossible to tell.
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RedSLC
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« Reply #55 on: July 11, 2013, 10:45:09 pm »


Romney won two precincts in Hawaii, both in Honolulu County. One covers the northern tip of the island, the other is a small one in the middle of the island.

The one in the center appears to be coterminous with Wheeler Army Airfield, which is classified as a CDP by the US census. It has a population of approx. 1,600 people.

The other one contains three CDPs, the largest of which is Laie (pop. approx. 6,100). I'm pretty certain Romney won it, because this particular town is home to certain university: BYU Hawaii

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYU_Hawaii

Also, McCain won a precinct in this same area in 2008. Therefore, I'm pretty certain that Laie is the largest place in Hawaii that Romney won.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #56 on: July 12, 2013, 08:49:47 am »


Romney won two precincts in Hawaii, both in Honolulu County. One covers the northern tip of the island, the other is a small one in the middle of the island.

The one in the center appears to be coterminous with Wheeler Army Airfield, which is classified as a CDP by the US census. It has a population of approx. 1,600 people.

The other one contains three CDPs, the largest of which is Laie (pop. approx. 6,100). I'm pretty certain Romney won it, because this particular town is home to certain university: BYU Hawaii

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYU_Hawaii

Also, McCain won a precinct in this same area in 2008. Therefore, I'm pretty certain that Laie is the largest place in Hawaii that Romney won.

Thanks
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #57 on: July 13, 2013, 05:06:31 am »

Laie is split between that precinct and the next one over, though.
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