|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 05, 2020, 05:23:03 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Largest Cities to Go Republican in Each State
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 Print
Author Topic: Largest Cities to Go Republican in Each State  (Read 5463 times)
giving birth to thunder
BRTD
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,963
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: June 16, 2013, 07:58:48 pm »

Romney won every single precinct in Burleigh County (one of them with under 50% of the vote though)

I can take pride in that one is where my parents live and where I grew up. Cheesy
Logged
Franknburger
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,404
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: June 16, 2013, 08:39:35 pm »

How did you determine Arlington as largest REP city in Texas? Based on precinct data as given by the Tarrant Election Office, which would have been quite cumbersome? Or did you have other sources (e.g. newspaper articles)?
Looking at county data alone, Forth Worth may have been the largest Texan city that voted Republican. Corpus Christi looks pretty much tied. Laredo went definitely Republican, as did Amarillo, Abilene, Midland and Odessa.

Yep, I used Dave's Redistricting App and within city lines, McCain won it, so Romney most definitely won it. Although Fort Worth lines are quite messy, what I can tell is that it went 53% Obama. Also the other cities you mentioned, don't you mean Laredo went definitely Democratic? Amarillo, Abilene, Midland and Odessa are all solidly republican as you said. Corpus Christi Leans Republican, but doesn't matter because it's not bigger than Arlington.

Well, If Fort Worth was 53% Obama, but Tarrant County 57% Romney, chances are pretty good that Arlington was won by Romney.

As to Laredo - it of course went Democratic. I meant Lubbock (don't know why I wrote Laredo instead, I seem to get old ..)
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,530
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: June 16, 2013, 09:50:06 pm »

How did you determine Arlington as largest REP city in Texas? Based on precinct data as given by the Tarrant Election Office, which would have been quite cumbersome? Or did you have other sources (e.g. newspaper articles)?
Looking at county data alone, Forth Worth may have been the largest Texan city that voted Republican. Corpus Christi looks pretty much tied. Laredo went definitely Republican, as did Amarillo, Abilene, Midland and Odessa.

Yep, I used Dave's Redistricting App and within city lines, McCain won it, so Romney most definitely won it. Although Fort Worth lines are quite messy, what I can tell is that it went 53% Obama. Also the other cities you mentioned, don't you mean Laredo went definitely Democratic? Amarillo, Abilene, Midland and Odessa are all solidly republican as you said. Corpus Christi Leans Republican, but doesn't matter because it's not bigger than Arlington.

Well, If Fort Worth was 53% Obama, but Tarrant County 57% Romney, chances are pretty good that Arlington was won by Romney.

As to Laredo - it of course went Democratic. I meant Lubbock (don't know why I wrote Laredo instead, I seem to get old ..)

Oh yes, Lubbock is of course republican. And yes Arlington and everything else in Tarrant County Romney won, only Fort Worth was won by Obama .
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,855


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: June 17, 2013, 09:44:46 pm »

I'm pretty sure that for Kentucky it would be Florence. I'm almost certain Obama won Owensboro.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,530
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: June 17, 2013, 11:53:27 pm »

I'm pretty sure that for Kentucky it would be Florence. I'm almost certain Obama won Owensboro.

Hmmm.. A person a day or two ago told me that Romney did win Owensboro. For right now I'll leave it as a question.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,855


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: June 17, 2013, 11:56:14 pm »

I'm pretty sure that for Kentucky it would be Florence. I'm almost certain Obama won Owensboro.

Hmmm.. A person a day or two ago told me that Romney did win Owensboro. For right now I'll leave it as a question.

I checked all the larger cities in Kentucky after the election, and I concluded it's just about impossible that Romney won Owensboro.

Obama won Covington, Newport, and the like, so I have no doubt at all he won Owensboro.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,530
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: June 18, 2013, 12:03:55 am »

I'm pretty sure that for Kentucky it would be Florence. I'm almost certain Obama won Owensboro.

Hmmm.. A person a day or two ago told me that Romney did win Owensboro. For right now I'll leave it as a question.

I checked all the larger cities in Kentucky after the election, and I concluded it's just about impossible that Romney won Owensboro.

Obama won Covington, Newport, and the like, so I have no doubt at all he won Owensboro.

I just checked about Hopkinsville and McCain won it, and Romney did better in the county so he at least won it too. So that means Hopkinsville would be largest.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,855


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: June 18, 2013, 12:07:02 am »

I'm pretty sure that for Kentucky it would be Florence. I'm almost certain Obama won Owensboro.

Hmmm.. A person a day or two ago told me that Romney did win Owensboro. For right now I'll leave it as a question.

I checked all the larger cities in Kentucky after the election, and I concluded it's just about impossible that Romney won Owensboro.

Obama won Covington, Newport, and the like, so I have no doubt at all he won Owensboro.

I just checked about Hopkinsville and McCain won it, and Romney did better in the county so he at least won it too. So that means Hopkinsville would be largest.

I checked Hopkinsville after the election, and that was another city that I concluded Obama won. Remember, while rural areas swung Republican, urban areas swung Democratic. For instance, Franklin County (home of Frankfort) went McCain in '08 but Obama in '12.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,530
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: June 18, 2013, 12:10:53 am »

I'm pretty sure that for Kentucky it would be Florence. I'm almost certain Obama won Owensboro.

Hmmm.. A person a day or two ago told me that Romney did win Owensboro. For right now I'll leave it as a question.

I checked all the larger cities in Kentucky after the election, and I concluded it's just about impossible that Romney won Owensboro.

Obama won Covington, Newport, and the like, so I have no doubt at all he won Owensboro.

I just checked about Hopkinsville and McCain won it, and Romney did better in the county so he at least won it too. So that means Hopkinsville would be largest.

I checked Hopkinsville after the election, and that was another city that I concluded Obama won. Remember, while rural areas swung Republican, urban areas swung Democratic. For instance, Franklin County (home of Frankfort) went McCain in '08 but Obama in '12.

Ok, so you're absolutely sure that the largest city Romney won was Florence?
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,855


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: June 18, 2013, 12:13:16 am »

I'm pretty sure that for Kentucky it would be Florence. I'm almost certain Obama won Owensboro.

Hmmm.. A person a day or two ago told me that Romney did win Owensboro. For right now I'll leave it as a question.

I checked all the larger cities in Kentucky after the election, and I concluded it's just about impossible that Romney won Owensboro.

Obama won Covington, Newport, and the like, so I have no doubt at all he won Owensboro.

I just checked about Hopkinsville and McCain won it, and Romney did better in the county so he at least won it too. So that means Hopkinsville would be largest.

I checked Hopkinsville after the election, and that was another city that I concluded Obama won. Remember, while rural areas swung Republican, urban areas swung Democratic. For instance, Franklin County (home of Frankfort) went McCain in '08 but Obama in '12.

Ok, so you're absolutely sure that the largest city Romney won was Florence?

I'm not 100% sure, but I'm maybe 97% sure.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,530
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: June 18, 2013, 12:17:14 am »

I'm pretty sure that for Kentucky it would be Florence. I'm almost certain Obama won Owensboro.

Hmmm.. A person a day or two ago told me that Romney did win Owensboro. For right now I'll leave it as a question.

I checked all the larger cities in Kentucky after the election, and I concluded it's just about impossible that Romney won Owensboro.

Obama won Covington, Newport, and the like, so I have no doubt at all he won Owensboro.

I just checked about Hopkinsville and McCain won it, and Romney did better in the county so he at least won it too. So that means Hopkinsville would be largest.

I checked Hopkinsville after the election, and that was another city that I concluded Obama won. Remember, while rural areas swung Republican, urban areas swung Democratic. For instance, Franklin County (home of Frankfort) went McCain in '08 but Obama in '12.

Ok, so you're absolutely sure that the largest city Romney won was Florence?

I'm not 100% sure, but I'm maybe 97% sure.

Since you seem pretty dedicated, I'll change it to Florence. Thank you for telling me.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,855


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: June 18, 2013, 12:24:12 am »

Since you seem pretty dedicated, I'll change it to Florence. Thank you for telling me.

Don't take my word for it, but I just can't see how Romney won Owensboro or Hopkinsville based on the maps I saw.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,530
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: June 18, 2013, 04:47:28 am »

Still need for Confidence:

Delaware
Tennessee
West Virginia
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,239
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: June 18, 2013, 12:04:50 pm »

Since you seem pretty dedicated, I'll change it to Florence. Thank you for telling me.

Don't take my word for it, but I just can't see how Romney won Owensboro.
Believe me, I did the actual precinct math. It was very close - though not quite as ultra-close as Obama's win in the only minimally larger Bowling Green - but Romney won Owensboro. Obama won the older, northern half of it, of course, and easily.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,855


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: June 18, 2013, 12:08:55 pm »

Since you seem pretty dedicated, I'll change it to Florence. Thank you for telling me.

Don't take my word for it, but I just can't see how Romney won Owensboro.
Believe me, I did the actual precinct math. It was very close - though not quite as ultra-close as Obama's win in the only minimally larger Bowling Green - but Romney won Owensboro. Obama won the older, northern half of it, of course, and easily.

Precinct boundaries in Kentucky don't always follow city boundaries, and when they do, they're not always named for the city they represent. For instance, the precinct that represents Woodlawn (a tiny suburb in Campbell County) is one of the Newport-named precincts. It took me a while to figure out that Obama actually won Woodlawn.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,239
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: June 18, 2013, 12:31:17 pm »

Since you seem pretty dedicated, I'll change it to Florence. Thank you for telling me.

Don't take my word for it, but I just can't see how Romney won Owensboro.
Believe me, I did the actual precinct math. It was very close - though not quite as ultra-close as Obama's win in the only minimally larger Bowling Green - but Romney won Owensboro. Obama won the older, northern half of it, of course, and easily.

Precinct boundaries in Kentucky don't always follow city boundaries
Yes. Having done the math and looked at the map, I am well aware. -_-
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,986
Nepal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: June 18, 2013, 03:18:41 pm »

TN: The Knox. News Sentinel reported that Obama won Knoxville by 3,000 votes - though that only covered majority-city precincts.  The precinct boundaries are relatively close to the city boundaries, though there could be enough exceptions to put Romney over the top, but I do not have enough knowledge of Knox Co. to say for sure.  If I had to guess, I'd say Obama won Knoxville 800-1,000 votes.

The next candidate would be Clarksville.  Using DRA, the 2008 results are very very close, with a slight Obama win.  With a 2.4% swing for the county, its likely that Romney won Clarksville.


Are you serious? WOW, the rest of Knox must be Uber Republican. Romney won at least 63% in Knox right? I actually just checked on Dave's App and Obama won Knoxville 51-47 to McCain. While the rest of the county, which holds more population than the city, went 69-29 McCain while the county overall went 61-38. In 2012 the county went 64-34 and if the city was roughly tied, then the rest of the county voted around 74% Romney. Insane man, we really are in the biggest Urban-Rural divide we've ever been in.

Interestingly, Knoxville itself vote for secession during the Civil War, while rural East Tennessee (including Knox County as a whole) was staunchly pro-Union.  Today, Knoxville votes for the black presidential candidate, while rural East Tennessee strongly opposes him.  I just find that to be a tiny bit ironic.
Logged
Reginald
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 802


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: June 18, 2013, 03:51:48 pm »

Can confirm Romney won Arlington:

Romney 59,599 51.00%
Obama 54,019 46.23%

I may have missed a couple of the tinier precincts in my number-crunching, but that's negligible in this case.

Map related. (Yes, colors are reversed. inb4 "execute him," etc.)
Logged
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,643
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: June 24, 2013, 08:43:29 pm »

Very interesting
Logged
RedSLC
SLValleyMan
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,486
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: June 25, 2013, 11:05:56 pm »

On West Virginia, I looked at the precinct results on the SoS website to see who won Huntington. Although it was close (the margin of victory being just under 800 votes), Obama won Huntington.

It actually makes sense if examined closely. roughly 90% of the city is in Cabell County, and Obama won that portion of the city in 2008 with approx. 53% of the vote. Cabell County only had a swing of about 2 points towards Romney (one of the smallest swings of any county in WV), meaning that if it swung as much as the county, Obama would still have narrowly won that portion of the city. Wayne County had a much bigger swing, but only about 4,000 people in that county also live in Huntington. Just like 2008, Romney won all four precincts that make up this part of the city, but it was not enough to overcome his deficit.

Since Parkersburg was 57% McCain in 2008 (and likely >60% Romney in 2012), there's your answer.
Logged
RedSLC
SLValleyMan
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,486
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: June 26, 2013, 12:14:08 am »


RI: Only two towns voted for Romney. Of the two, Scituate is larger.


Actually, there was a third town in R.I., East Greenwich, that Romney won. It's larger than both West Greenwich and Scituate.
Logged
RedSLC
SLValleyMan
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,486
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: June 26, 2013, 12:19:55 am »

As for the remaining states:

OR: Medford voted for McCain, and Jackson County swung toward Romney, so it almost definitely voted for Romney. As for larger cities, there are only 7: Portland, Salem, Eugene, Gresham, Hillsboro, Beaverton, and Bend. Portland, Eugene, Hillsboro, and Beaverton are all solidly Democratic. Gresham almost definitely voted for Obama in 2012 since it voted 58% for Obama in 2008 and Multnomah County had only a very small swing toward Romney. Salem voted 56% for Obama in 2008, and is getting more Hispanic - hardly a recipe for larger Republican vote shares. Bend also voted 56% for Obama, and Deschutes County swung only about 2% toward Romney, so it probably voted for Obama in 2012 as well. That leaves Medford as the very likely answer.


I have confirmed that Obama won Bend by looking at the Deschutes County precinct results.

I have also confirmed that Romney won Medford by looking at Jackson County results.

BTW I find it astounding that Obama won Jackson County in 2008 yet still lost Medford. Instances where a democrat wins a county but loses the largest city are extremely rare.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,530
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: June 26, 2013, 11:38:29 am »


RI: Only two towns voted for Romney. Of the two, Scituate is larger.


Actually, there was a third town in R.I., East Greenwich, that Romney won. It's larger than both West Greenwich and Scituate.

Thanks for WV and RI
Logged
ProudNewEnglander
Rookie
**
Posts: 20


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: June 26, 2013, 01:59:20 pm »


RI: Only two towns voted for Romney. Of the two, Scituate is larger.


Actually, there was a third town in R.I., East Greenwich, that Romney won. It's larger than both West Greenwich and Scituate.

Wrong. Obama won East Greenwich 3649-3535. While Obama got only 49.9% of the vote there, he still won the town. So Scituate is still the correct answer.
Logged
ProudNewEnglander
Rookie
**
Posts: 20


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: June 26, 2013, 02:03:04 pm »

As for the remaining states:

OR: Medford voted for McCain, and Jackson County swung toward Romney, so it almost definitely voted for Romney. As for larger cities, there are only 7: Portland, Salem, Eugene, Gresham, Hillsboro, Beaverton, and Bend. Portland, Eugene, Hillsboro, and Beaverton are all solidly Democratic. Gresham almost definitely voted for Obama in 2012 since it voted 58% for Obama in 2008 and Multnomah County had only a very small swing toward Romney. Salem voted 56% for Obama in 2008, and is getting more Hispanic - hardly a recipe for larger Republican vote shares. Bend also voted 56% for Obama, and Deschutes County swung only about 2% toward Romney, so it probably voted for Obama in 2012 as well. That leaves Medford as the very likely answer.


I have confirmed that Obama won Bend by looking at the Deschutes County precinct results.

I have also confirmed that Romney won Medford by looking at Jackson County results.

BTW I find it astounding that Obama won Jackson County in 2008 yet still lost Medford. Instances where a democrat wins a county but loses the largest city are extremely rare.

The 2008 Jackson County results were mostly due to Obama's absolutely enormous margin in Ashland (the second largest city in the county). He got 86% there, and turnout was high. My guess is that turnout was lower in Ashland because some Democrats sat out the election (that is the general trend in similar towns), and that's one reason why Romney did better in Jackson County.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines