Obama campaign releases internals...and why Gallup sucked.
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  Obama campaign releases internals...and why Gallup sucked.
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Author Topic: Obama campaign releases internals...and why Gallup sucked.  (Read 2909 times)
afleitch
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« on: June 06, 2013, 03:07:56 PM »

Two very good articles

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-06-06/obama-campaign-says-it-was-42-percent-more-accurate-than-nate-silver

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-06-04/gallup-explains-how-it-blew-the-presidential-election
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1 on: June 06, 2013, 07:30:15 PM »

So everything we were saying about Gallup and other polls 'likely voter screens were too rigid and were excluding too many Obama voters' 'the sample wasn't ethnically or geographically diverse enough' etc etc were right ...
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Torie
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« Reply #2 on: June 06, 2013, 07:52:52 PM »

So the question with this one datum sample, is was the more accurate Obama team turnout model (the polls with this highly polarized electorate were all about turnout models), due to luck or superior insight?
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afleitch
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« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2013, 06:17:59 AM »

So the question with this one datum sample, is was the more accurate Obama team turnout model (the polls with this highly polarized electorate were all about turnout models), due to luck or superior insight?

I think it’s difficult to say. If you look at the internals you can see exactly why the Obama campaign was more spooked with the Ryan pick than it was with the First Debate. It was on a slow decline from mid-July and accelerated by the RNC. It was the DNC that was the big boost that stopped the decline and the 47% comments added to that. If you note the First Debate, Obama took a sharp turn downwards, but some of the polls had this continuing for a while after the debate. In fact it would seem he simply flat lined and then picked up again.

Curiously the battleground state report from early September (pre 47% comments) nailed Obama’s lead in the states that he ended up winning two months later.
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