European Elections 2014 (France)

[MaxQue]

You can forget an alliance between LO and NPA this time around.

LO is dying since Laguiller retired and more than half of NPA members joined FG, so both LO and NPA will probably have results at or below 1%.

[Zanas]

Yes, but as trotskyists, or at least heirs to this movement, they won't be able to ally. NPA has even gone to be left of LO nowadays. There is a strong minority in the party that doesn't believe in "bourgeois elections" and want out of all of them.

[FredLindq]

So what are your predictions regarding alliances, % and seats?!

[MaxQue]

Yes, but as trotskyists, or at least heirs to this movement, they won't be able to ally.

I totally agree with that. I was talking of the results for each party alone.

[Hash]

So what are your predictions regarding alliances, % and seats?!

I think it's still far too early to have serious predictions at this point. We're a year out, a whole lot can and will change.

[Hash]

Ifop poll, Oct 1-4 (change on Ifop, May 29-31)

FN 24% (+3%)
UMP 22% (+1%)
PS 19% (-2%)
UDI-MoDem 11% (-2.5%)
FG 10% (+1%)
EELV 6% (-1.5%)
NPA 2% (nc)
DLR 2% (-1%)
Others 4% (+2%)

[Zanas]

And to think that is actually an improvement for the PS... But it's still horrible. Although the FN vote will not be evenly distributed : the West and Centre regions will have a relatively low showing, Southwest and Île de France a bit more but still under UMP and PS for sure, whereas Southeast, East and North will be unbearable.

Although you can still have Normandy bringing down the vote in Picardy and NPDC, Rhône-Alpes bringing down Paca and Languedoc, and... Burgundy ? bringing down the rest of the East. The Eastern one will be the worst I think. I'm glad I don't vote there anymore...

[Zanas]

Ifop poll, Oct 1-4 (change on Ifop, May 29-31)

FN 24% (+3%)
UMP 22% (+1%)
PS 19% (-2%)
UDI-MoDem 11% (-2.5%)
FG 10% (+1%)
EELV 6% (-1.5%)
NPA 2% (nc)
DLR 2% (-1%)
Others 4% (+2%)

I was bored, so I just made an excel table to calculate what seat repartition we could expect from a national poll like the ones we're gonna get. To do that, I arbitrarily applied repartition keys from EP elections of 2009 between national result and interregional constituency result for each party, counting the overseas out. As I do not yet know how the 2 additional seats we got will be allocated, I didn't count them in just yet, and took the 2009 number of seats for each constituency. Of course, there are inconsistencies in the repartition keys that need to be corrected, but for starters I chose to apply them mathematically.

For the poll above, it gives me the following :
FN 20 seats
UMP 20
PS 15
Modem-UDI 7
FG 6
EELV 1

Which makes 69 metropole seats. As soon as we get more polls, I'll run them in my matrix. Also, if anyone wants to take a look at the repartition keys and help me get more refreshed and pertinent ones, I can send them to you and we can discuss. Maybe I'll just post them here or on the French thread to be discussed.

Anyway, that would mean a mess for EELV... And FN, with a voting much more dispersed than the UMP, might not be "France's first party" in terms of seats.

[You kip if you want to...]

Ifop poll, Oct 1-4 (change on Ifop, May 29-31)

FN 24% (+3%)
UMP 22% (+1%)
PS 19% (-2%)
UDI-MoDem 11% (-2.5%)
FG 10% (+1%)
EELV 6% (-1.5%)
NPA 2% (nc)
DLR 2% (-1%)
Others 4% (+2%)

I was bored, so I just made an excel table to calculate what seat repartition we could expect from a national poll like the ones we're gonna get. To do that, I arbitrarily applied repartition keys from EP elections of 2009 between national result and interregional constituency result for each party, counting the overseas out. As I do not yet know how the 2 additional seats we got will be allocated, I didn't count them in just yet, and took the 2009 number of seats for each constituency. Of course, there are inconsistencies in the repartition keys that need to be corrected, but for starters I chose to apply them mathematically.

For the poll above, it gives me the following :
FN 20 seats
UMP 20
PS 15
Modem-UDI 7
FG 6
EELV 1

Which makes 69 metropole seats. As soon as we get more polls, I'll run them in my matrix. Also, if anyone wants to take a look at the repartition keys and help me get more refreshed and pertinent ones, I can send them to you and we can discuss. Maybe I'll just post them here or on the French thread to be discussed.

Anyway, that would mean a mess for EELV... And FN, with a voting much more dispersed than the UMP, might not be "France's first party" in terms of seats.

PS still make gains on 2009.

[FredLindq]

I have put the change from 2009 in brackets
FN 20 seats (+17)
UMP 20 (-3)
PS 15 (+1)
Modem-UDI 7 (-5)
FG 6 (+1)
EELV 1 (-13)
Libertas 0 (-1)

This would be a disaster for the Green group in the EP.

[Hash]

Ifop, Jan 14-17 (change on Ifop, Oct 1-4)

FN 23% (-1%)
UMP 21% (-1%)
PS-PRG 18% (-1%)
UDI-MoDem 11% (nc)
FG 9% (-1%)
EELV 7% (+1%)
DLR 2.5% (+0.5%)
NPA 2% (nc)
Others 6.5% (+2.5%)

[Zanas]

For once I'm gonna contribute something of some worth. Click on this link to get immediately transported to a google storage of my excel file where you just have to input the scores of a particular poll, or your fantasy score, in the grey area and it will give you the number of seats for mainland France for each list in the red area, plus the repartition in each of the interregional constituency, based on repartition keys I have took too much of my available time to calculate (basically they are keys rounding the repartition ones from EP 2009 and President 2012, with hand-made adjustments in some cases from what I know of Franch politics and election).

Feel free to download the file and play with it if you like, but you can also alter it online. I'm not really sure but it seems that if you make changes they will still be there when the next user goes to the file, so please don't just mess with it.

And also feel free to discuss the repartition keys. Basically the number is one list's score in the constituency compared to its national score.

Yes, two more seats will be included in France's tally of MEPs. For now I haven't put them anywhere, but my table is ready for them. They will probably be affected to Île de France since the abroad French will vote there, or they will stay outside and be designated by any undemocratic manner you can think of.

[Diouf]

Is the Mouvement pour la France still active? if not how is Philippe de Villiers running and how are the chances that he will be elected in the Ouest again?

[Zanas]

Have they ever been "active" ? Well, they still exist, but they stated last year that they would not participate in the lists initiated by Christine Boutin to pull something out of the "manifs pour tous" for herself. It is a possibility that they ally with Dupont-Aignan's "Debout la République", but I wouldn't bet on it. However, CPNT will be on the UMP lists, so no Libertas-ish alliance this time.

I'm not an expert in French sovereignist right so maybe others could fill you in better.

[Hash]

The MPF is for all intents and purposes dead; Philippe de Villiers was diagnosed and treated for choroidal melanoma in 2009-2010 and resigned as president of the Vendée CG in September 2010 for that and corruption scandals involving his family (I faintly recall they were rather amusing). Of course, as a French politician he will never retire fully (=cease to annoy us) until he kicks the bucket, so he hasn't forfeited his MEP gig and the salary it gives him (he is one of the French MEPs who rarely show up for sessions) and recently reminded us all of his existence by coming out for the Manif pour tous stuff.

[Zanas]

For the lazy out here, who didn't click my link, here is my current projection :
FN 20 (4 NO, 2 O, 3 E, 3 SO, 5 SE, 1 C, 2 IdF)
UMP 19 (2 NO, 3 O, 3 E, 2 SO, 3 SE, 2 C, 4 IdF)
PS 14 (2 everywhere, 1 C and 3 IdF)
Modem-UDI 8 (1 everywhere, 2 IdF)
FG 4 (NO, SO, SE, IdF)
EELV 4 (O, SO, SE, IdF)

You could easily make a case for switching scores for SO (South-West) MEPs between UMP and FN, as in UMP in the lead with 3 and FN with 2.

[Zanas]

Oh by the way, it has been said in yesterday's conseil des ministres that the 2 seats France gets will be allocated to the Île de France constituency.

So if you take my above projection, FN and FG get one more seat in IdF.

This actually makes the election in Île de France a bit more interesting, because with 15 seats and D'Hondt, you can start hoping for a seat at around 4.5-5 %, so we could have a surprise.

[Hash]

This actually makes the election in Île de France a bit more interesting, because with 15 seats and D'Hondt, you can start hoping for a seat at around 4.5-5 %, so we could have a surprise.

There's actually a fixed 5% threshold for seats (see the law here), of course that doesn't amount to much in most of the (smaller) constituencies.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I am not really up-to-date on French politics, so why is FN polling so well? Is this something that we can expect to last until election day? I know France is friendly to, how shall we say, "unorthodox" parties, but I thought that diminished big time after Chirac vs. Le Pen back in 2002.

[Zanas]

This actually makes the election in Île de France a bit more interesting, because with 15 seats and D'Hondt, you can start hoping for a seat at around 4.5-5 %, so we could have a surprise.

There's actually a fixed 5% threshold for seats (see the law here), of course that doesn't amount to much in most of the (smaller) constituencies.

Yes, it's true, but still, one list with less than 10% could garner two seats in the right circumstances.

And a correct answer to PiT would take so much time that I'll try to keep it very simple and schematic :
- PS (and EELV) are doing awfully in government and actually doing the complete opposite to what a majority of their voters hoped they would do. So these people are vastly going to abstain.
- since Sarko left, UMP is approximately as divided as the right was in Chirac-Balladur times. So it doesn't help when it comes to embody a credible alternative.
- FG, who should pick up some fruits of this situation (I don't know how to translate tirer son épingle du jeu properly, Hash ?), is not in the best of dynamics, plus it has the general difficulty of explaining people how austerity and capitalism are not their final horizon...
- the "centre", UDI or Modem, are collecting some of the right, or even PS, voters, but not with excessive enthusiasm.
- a large portion of the population will therefore abstain in the EP elections, and those who will bother to get out and vote will do so not by enthusiasm but to make a shout-out.
- put it together and what have you got ? Bibbidi bobbidi boo ! FN polling in the mid-20s.
- it is probable that UMP will still end up first though, because a number of FN-would be voters presently polled won't turn out, whereas old bitter people of the right-wing will.

Don't hesitate to ask further questions.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     So it sounds like FN is benefitting from everyone else's problems.

[justfollowingtheelections]

How likely is it that Le Pen will one day become president?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Reap the benefit, perhaps?

[Zanas]

How likely is it that Le Pen will one day become president?

I'd say an 8% chance as it is now. Not likely at all.

[justfollowingtheelections]

How likely is it that Le Pen will one day become president?

I'd say an 8% chance as it is now. Not likely at all.

I hope you're right, but I'm really worried.