Election Analysis

[barfbag]

Hurricane Sandy swayed all ethnic groups in New Jersey. With the pace Romney was gaining in the weeks leading up to the election, he may have even made a run at winning the Garden State had it not been for the hurricane.

[barfbag]

Whites did not 'get more Republican overall'. Rich whites did get more Republican, while working-class whites actually got substantially more Democratic, especially in parts of North Jersey. The result was probably a wash in terms of white voters across the whole state.

As for barfbag's comment, by mid-October, Romney had stopped gaining, and after then he steadily lost pretty much everything he gained. The hurricane simply accelerated this process. Even if not for Sandy, Obama would still have won New Jersey with at least 55-56 percent of the vote.

Hudson County's swing can also be attributed to the massive swing toward Obama among Cubans. While the Hudson Cubans were always more Democratic than the Miami Cubans, the Hudson Cubans still swung heavily toward Obama.

Early-mid October is when Romney began to gain.

[barfbag]

As a whole the lack of conservatives who voted cost Romney the White House. As for New Jersey, Obama would've won either way with the way things were going, but Hurricane Sandy did help him there and in New York to a lesser degree. I'm not sure if it was this thread, but New Jersey would've likely been 55-43 to 53-46. It would've been interesting to see Christie's impact without the hurricane.

[barfbag]

I am trying to pinpoint exactly whether Hurricane Sandy swung the White Non Hispanic Vote in NJ to Obama.


  Did Obama's way of handling the Hurricane response increase his share of the Non Hispanic White vote in NJ?
 
  Can Obama's swings in Ocean County and Bergen County be attributed to increased Minority turnout and depressed white turnout ? Remember McCain picked off a few of the Southern Bergen County towns in 2008.

 I am intrigued especially by Hudson County. McCain got 26 percent there in 2008 compared to the 21 percent romney got in Hudson in 2012. Can this be attributed to higher minority participation and a low white turnout or to a combined White and Minority high turnout?

Remember, Hurricane Sandy hit mostly Republican White areas.
 

The effects were felt all over the state though. People feel like they're part of something and doing the right thing when they vote for someone who helps out with a disaster. It may have helped Obama all over the country to a smaller extent.