Election Analysis

[ProudNewEnglander]

Whites did not 'get more Republican overall'. Rich whites did get more Republican, while working-class whites actually got substantially more Democratic, especially in parts of North Jersey. The result was probably a wash in terms of white voters across the whole state.

As for barfbag's comment, by mid-October, Romney had stopped gaining, and after then he steadily lost pretty much everything he gained. The hurricane simply accelerated this process. Even if not for Sandy, Obama would still have won New Jersey with at least 55-56 percent of the vote.

Hudson County's swing can also be attributed to the massive swing toward Obama among Cubans. While the Hudson Cubans were always more Democratic than the Miami Cubans, the Hudson Cubans still swung heavily toward Obama.

[ProudNewEnglander]

Whites did not 'get more Republican overall'. Rich whites did get more Republican, while working-class whites actually got substantially more Democratic, especially in parts of North Jersey. The result was probably a wash in terms of white voters across the whole state.

As for barfbag's comment, by mid-October, Romney had stopped gaining, and after then he steadily lost pretty much everything he gained. The hurricane simply accelerated this process. Even if not for Sandy, Obama would still have won New Jersey with at least 55-56 percent of the vote.

Hudson County's swing can also be attributed to the massive swing toward Obama among Cubans. While the Hudson Cubans were always more Democratic than the Miami Cubans, the Hudson Cubans still swung heavily toward Obama.

Early-mid October is when Romney began to gain.

Romney began to gain immediately after the first debate. Romney's pace of gaining had already begun to slow by the time of the Veep Debate, after which Romney stopped gaining for good. From the second debate all the way up to Election Day, Obama slowly but steadily gained back almost everything that he had lost.

Whites did not 'get more Republican overall'. Rich whites did get more Republican, while working-class whites actually got substantially more Democratic, especially in parts of North Jersey. The result was probably a wash in terms of white voters across the whole state.

As for barfbag's comment, by mid-October, Romney had stopped gaining, and after then he steadily lost pretty much everything he gained. The hurricane simply accelerated this process. Even if not for Sandy, Obama would still have won New Jersey with at least 55-56 percent of the vote.

Hudson County's swing can also be attributed to the massive swing toward Obama among Cubans. While the Hudson Cubans were always more Democratic than the Miami Cubans, the Hudson Cubans still swung heavily toward Obama.

Overall means all together, and yes overall it did get more republican... according to the exit poll. Then again exit polls could be wrong, and I don't really know the specifics on this one  so I'm just going to believe what you said. I honesty did this weeks ago and just pulled up some exit polls and election results from '08 and '12 and analyzed.

I've analyzed the town-by-town election results for both the 2008 and 2012 elections in New Jersey. It's clear from looking at the results that the movement among whites was largely a wash, and that Obama's gaining in NJ was largely a result of gains among minorities. Of course, it is also possible that a significant number of Republicans stayed home, thus helping the Democratic shift.

[ProudNewEnglander]

The Cuban swing in both FL and NJ is pretty interesting.  Anyone know what such an instant swing was attributed to?  I'd expect it to swing democrat over time, but not this suddenly.

It's not an instant swing. While the swing is happening quickly, it did not suddenly start last year. Kerry won 25% of the Cuban vote in 2004. Obama won 37% of the Cuban vote in 2008. Obama won 48% of the Cuban vote in 2012. Also, in 2008, the Cuban Republican congresspeople in Florida were held to narrower re-elections than usual, and in 2012 a Cuban Democrat was elected in South Florida. The swing has been building since at least 2006 or 2007, around then.

[ProudNewEnglander]

As a whole the lack of conservatives who voted cost Romney the White House. As for New Jersey, Obama would've won either way with the way things were going, but Hurricane Sandy did help him there and in New York to a lesser degree. I'm not sure if it was this thread, but New Jersey would've likely been 55-43 to 53-46. It would've been interesting to see Christie's impact without the hurricane.

No. What cost Romney the White House was his arrogant and condescending attitude toward poor people and racial minorities. If Romney had done as well as McCain did with Cubans, he would have won Florida. If he hadn't alienated poor people and minorities, then he could have gotten enough of their voted to win Ohio, Virginia, and Nevada. If Romney had won those states, he would have won the election.

You are wrong because conservatives always show up to vote. They are much more reliable voters. It is the Democratic base that only shows up sometimes. That's why midterm elections are tougher for Democrats, because their base might not entirely show up while the Republican base will definitely show up.