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Author Topic: Election Analysis  (Read 1902 times)
ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« on: June 07, 2013, 10:36:57 PM »

You're theory on depressed white vote is correct, plus changing demographics. White turnout went down, minority turnout went up. Interestingly whites got much more republican overall, but I think in Monmouth and Ocean counties, the white vote only got a little bit more republican, with increased minority turnout. Monmouth was roughly the same, Ocean got more democratic.

So, did it effect the vote? Yes, enough to make the state swing democratic, but not enough to make it dramatic. I think New Jersey will go back to normal percentages in 2016.
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ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2013, 11:59:17 PM »

Whites did not 'get more Republican overall'. Rich whites did get more Republican, while working-class whites actually got substantially more Democratic, especially in parts of North Jersey. The result was probably a wash in terms of white voters across the whole state.

As for barfbag's comment, by mid-October, Romney had stopped gaining, and after then he steadily lost pretty much everything he gained. The hurricane simply accelerated this process. Even if not for Sandy, Obama would still have won New Jersey with at least 55-56 percent of the vote.

Hudson County's swing can also be attributed to the massive swing toward Obama among Cubans. While the Hudson Cubans were always more Democratic than the Miami Cubans, the Hudson Cubans still swung heavily toward Obama.

Overall means all together, and yes overall it did get more republican... according to the exit poll. Then again exit polls could be wrong, and I don't really know the specifics on this one  so I'm just going to believe what you said. I honesty did this weeks ago and just pulled up some exit polls and election results from '08 and '12 and analyzed.

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