How long until Florida and Texas go solidly Democratic?

[DevotedDemocrat]

Just curious given changing demographics....

[Sol]

Florida- 20-30 years, due to the still growing retiree population
Texas- Probably never

Georgia, NC, and Colorado will be safe D before either.

[Penelope]

Never - The GOP will begin to become competitive with Hispanics before Florida (a swing state) and Texas (a solidly Republican state) are solidly Democratic.

[minionofmidas]

Impossible to tell, including if ever.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Probably never.  Even if the Latino population grows enough, the younger generations will probably assimilate and become more Republican.  And Cuban-Americans will probably stay solidly GOP.  I doubt that the current electoral map will change much at all within the next few decades.

[HansOslo]

Political coalitions that are too big tend to break apart after a short time. It happened to Roosevelt’s coalition as well as Reagans. And I assume it will happen to a Democratic coalition that includes places as far apart as Texas, Vermont and New York. So Texas and Florida might become Solid Democratic states at some point. But then I think a lot of the current Democratic states would become Republican states. Perhaps the Great Lake region and the Northeast.

[TDAS04]

Probably never.

[DS0816]

It was true a good 30 to 40 years ago as it was true with 2012 Florida: The north votes like the south, and the south votes like the north. It's no wonder the state of Florida is routinely competitive. I refer to it as a bellwether because, since 1928, it has voted for the winner in all but two elections (1960, 1992). No Republican put together a prevailing map without Fla.

The demographics would have to change to take Florida out of purple and into blue. I don't imagine that happening. I think what's going to happen is that the Republicans will lose enough and then turn around and compete for demographics groups like Hispanics and Asians. That will take a while; beyond this decade. But they'll do it because, while we can refer to it as a party, it operates like a business. The Republicans, just like the Democrats (from the 1968 to 2004 realigning period), want to stay in business. Congressional seats in the House, with marjority control, isn't fulfilling anywhere near to having the presidency. Before the Republicans get back in business, they will have to change the party. That's their key problem: It's the party!

[Donerail]

Probably never.  Even if the Latino population grows enough, the younger generations will probably assimilate and become more Republican.  And Cuban-Americans will probably stay solidly GOP.  I doubt that the current electoral map will change much at all within the next few decades.

Obama won 48% of Cuban-Americans, well within the margin of error.

[Siloch]

America will collapse before then.

[opebo]

Texas no, but Florida is somewhat unpredictable.   If by some chance a new cohort of olds in the march-to-the-grave (stopping off in the Sunshine State) becomes slightly less Republican leaning then coupled with the continuing growth of Hispanics the state could certainly become strongly Democratic leaning.  However from what we can tell the incipient cohorts of the decrepit do not seem to be particularly less Republican leaning, so it could be a long while.

[Skill and Chance]

They will never go solidly Democratic as long as the Democrats are the left wing party.  But Florida could conceivably become Lean D in the 2020's if Republicans continue doing poorly among Hispanic voters.  Also if Republicans reform Medicare on an Obamacare style party line vote.

[free my dawg]

Florida might once the flocks of older people stop. I give it 30 or 40 years, though.

Texas? Forget about it.

[5280]

Texas going Democratic is like New York going Republican, hell freezes over before that ever happens.

[pbrower2a]

Despite its far-from-central geographic position, Florida may be the state closest to being a microcosm of America. It has been close in all four of the most recent elections. It might be solid in a blowout, but that means little. It has an ethnic mix similar to that of the US as a whole. It has some large urban areas and some influential rural interests. So it grows oranges instead of potatoes -- big deal!

Texas was reliably Democratic in close elections until 1980, actually going with Humphrey in 1968.

The real question is whether coalitions change. Just think of this: in 2012 Barack Obama (D) did not win any state that Adlai Stevenson (D) ever won, and in 2008 he won only one such state (North Carolina, and just barely) that Adlai Stevenson ever won. On the other side, Dwight Eisenhower won Massachusetts and Minnesota together, which no Republican has achieved since 1969 -- and Ike did that twice. 

[Emperor Charles V]

In my TL, Florida and Texas never become solidly Democratic (that's right! NEVER!) except in democratic landslides of course.

Let's look at how both of them will vote in the future:

Texas

2016: Christie (R)
2020: Rubio (R)
2024: Rubio (R)
2028: Newsom (D)
2032: Schock (R)
2036: Sandlin (D)
2040: Boller (R)
2044: Boller (R)
2048: Henrie (R)
2052: Perry (D)
2056: Eastman (R)
2060: Eastman (R)
2064: Torrey (R)
2068: Caldero (D)
2072: Caldero (D)
2076: Peterson (R)

Summary: Lean Republican bordering on Tossup for some elections


Florida


2016: Christie (R)
2020: Rubio (R)
2024: Rubio (R)
2028: Cantor (R)
2032: Schock (R)
2036: Sandlin (D)
2040: Boller (R)
2044: Boller (R)
2048: Henrie (R)
2052: Perry (D)
2056: Eastman (R)
2060: Eastman (R)
2064: Torrey (R)
2068: Caldero (D)
2072: Caldero (D)
2076: Rothstein (D)

Summary: Alternates between Tossup and Lean Republican, Solid Republican for some elections

[Mister Mets]

According to Nate Silver's demographic calculator, if voting patterns remain the same, Texas will be as blue as Florida is now in 2048. Georgia flips in 2044. None become solidly Democratic.

One problem with that approach is that it assumes that things will remain constant, which is unlikely.

Groups that are currently considered minorities may eventually be considered part of the generic majority, as occurred to the descendants of Catholic immigrants.

[Person Man]

Its very hard to see Florida ever becoming "solid" for either side. Florida will continue to be...complicated. If you went by traditional demographics, Florida would be where New Mexico or Oregon is. However, it is a microcosm of America except that almost nothing is what it seems...The only thing that inflates Democrats' chances down there is that there are a lot of "white" Hispanics. You think they will go D...but they don't..but more than what they used to. In fact, if you wanted to be crude, you could say that Florida is unique in that there are a lot of minorities that want to be white and you do see a few minorities married to white TEA bagger types.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Never.

[PJ]

FL- will be a battleground for the next century. It seems kind of stuck at the moment.
TX- battleground by 2032. Lean dem (like OR) by 2068. Solid dem (like CA) by 2080.