What if Kansas is the Next Colorado and this is it's 2004?

[Skill and Chance]

It would be very ironic if Democrats were looking in all the wrong places for long term pickup opportunities.  Right now, it seems to be a mix of generic R's, New England style moderate R's and a small Democratic base.  Obviously the demographics aren't anywhere near as diverse as CO or VA, but if the moderate R's start voting en masse for the D's post Brownback, that is putting D's and now D-leaning I's into the high 40's there.  A couple polls tested 2016 and found the R lead was about half of what traditionally happens there.  Is it a one-time burst of anger, or could it have legs into the 2020's?

[Never]

Right now, I suspect that there is mainly an outpouring of dissatisfaction with Republican officeholders in Kansas, but if the state's margin is unusually close for Republicans in the 2016 presidential election relative to the rest of the nation, it could definitely be possible for the Democratic party to start doing very well in the future in Kansas.

OP, I do have an issue with your assessment of the state's demographics:

Right now, it seems to be a mix of generic R's, New England style moderate R's and a small Democratic base.

I think the Tea Party/far right element is fairly strong here, as evidenced by the presence of statewide officeholders like Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Governor Sam Brownback, and I would hesitate to lump that wing of the Republican party with the generic part.

[eric82oslo]

Well the Kansas demographics certainly is interesting (and changing surprisingly fast). It already happens to be (as of 2010) more diverse than both Utah and Oregon. It has some truely heavy latino counties in the West. In 2010, the latino percentage in the state was 10.5% (making it just behind Washington and Idaho), today it should be considerably larger. In 15 years I could see Kansas being one of the more interesting states. Obama is half-Kansan himself, so maybe that has had some subconcious moderating effect on people, without them being aware of it themselves yet. Also Kansan Sebelius was in charge of the Obamacare rollout, so perhaps people are starting to forgive her now that they're becoming aware of what a positive effect it will have on many people's lives. Maybe I'm just making up stuff, but it's funny to speculate.

Apparently Obama and the former moderate hero Governor Sebelius are more popular in the state than Roberts and Brownback.

[Person Man]

Right now, I suspect that there is mainly an outpouring of dissatisfaction with Republican officeholders in Kansas, but if the state's margin is unusually close for Republicans in the 2016 presidential election relative to the rest of the nation, it could definitely be possible for the Democratic party to start doing very well in the future in Kansas.

OP, I do have an issue with your assessment of the state's demographics:

Right now, it seems to be a mix of generic R's, New England style moderate R's and a small Democratic base.

I think the Tea Party/far right element is fairly strong here, as evidenced by the presence of statewide officeholders like Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Governor Sam Brownback, and I would hesitate to lump that wing of the Republican party with the generic part.

Did people ever think of Colorado as Texas-lite as they do with Kansas?
How long was it before people thought that democrats had a chance in Colorado?
People could have thought that Colorado was moderate since the 70s or 80s and only voted for Dole in 1996 because he boosted turnout in Eastern Colorado. Then again, there people that are still not convinced that it can sustain a two-party system at all levels.

[IceSpear]

Nah, it's just backlash against Brownback. Once Davis delivers a good thrashing, the state will return to normal.

[Person Man]

Nah, it's just backlash against Brownback. Once Davis delivers a good thrashing, the state will return to normal.

This could be right on the money.  Time will tell if what Democrats have done nationally over the last 8 years was just a backlash, the swinging of a pendulum or the beginning of a new era.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Nah, it's just backlash against Brownback. Once Davis delivers a good thrashing, the state will return to normal.

This.  If Roberts loses, then I'll eat my hat.

Dream on, Democrats.

[Хahar 🤔]

It's not and this isn't.

[ElectionsGuy]

Colorado was a lean republican state in the 90's and early 2000's. Kansas is a safe republican state now and won't go democratic unless there's a 20 point landslide.

[Vosem]

Kansas...won't go republican unless there's a 20 point landslide.

Feeling pessimistic, ElectionsGuy?

[pbrower2a]

Right now, I suspect that there is mainly an outpouring of dissatisfaction with Republican officeholders in Kansas, but if the state's margin is unusually close for Republicans in the 2016 presidential election relative to the rest of the nation, it could definitely be possible for the Democratic party to start doing very well in the future in Kansas.

OP, I do have an issue with your assessment of the state's demographics:

Right now, it seems to be a mix of generic R's, New England style moderate R's and a small Democratic base.

I think the Tea Party/far right element is fairly strong here, as evidenced by the presence of statewide officeholders like Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Governor Sam Brownback, and I would hesitate to lump that wing of the Republican party with the generic part.

Did people ever think of Colorado as Texas-lite as they do with Kansas?
How long was it before people thought that democrats had a chance in Colorado?
People could have thought that Colorado was moderate since the 70s or 80s and only voted for Dole in 1996 because he boosted turnout in Eastern Colorado. Then again, there people that are still not convinced that it can sustain a two-party system at all levels.

As late as 1976 Texas was more Democratic than the US as a whole, and Carter won Texas while losing everything to the west of Texas except Hawaii. Colorado was a hotbed of the "Sagebrush Rebellion" against the Democratic Party.

I once described Texas as "Kansas grafted onto Florida" in its politics. Texas has some relatively liberal urban areas that would make a El Paso and the Dallas-San Antonio-Houston-Brownsville quadrilateral swing areas. The rest of Texas is either like the Florida Panhandle (East Texas) or like Kansas (northwest Texas).

Now what could be going on in Kansas? As elsewhere Republicans have begun their 'RINO purge'. Kansas used to have significant numbers of both moderate and hard-line Republicans, and very few Democrats. Now that the Republican Party has purged the moderates the once-insignificant Democratic Party welcomes their votes. See the inverse pattern for the South, in which the agrarian racists had to first hold their nose while they found their way to the Party of Satan -- well, Lincoln was tantamount to Satan to those who would never forgive him for the War of Northern Aggression and denying a peculiar expression of property rights.

Neither FDR nor JFK has never been so odious in Kansas as Lincoln might have been in the post-Confederate South.   

[ElectionsGuy]

Kansas...won't go republican unless there's a 20 point landslide.

Feeling pessimistic, ElectionsGuy?

Sorry, mistake corrected.

[Devils30]

Only 2016 Republican I can see losing Kansas is Cruz and even then that means he's already lost 38 other states.

[New_Conservative]

Only 2016 Republican I can see losing Kansas is Cruz and even then that means he's already lost 38 other states.

I'd honestly probably vote Hilary over Cruz...

[TDAS04]

I don't think so.  None of the Plains states are likely to go Democratic in a presidential election any time soon, one reason being that states such as Kansas and Nebraska are much more socially conservative and religious than Colorado.  While Colorado has its fair share of socons and tea partiers, Kansas does not have Colorado's concentration of hippyish, pot-smoking, ski bum type liberals, so they are pretty different states demographically and culturally.

[TJ in Oregon]

I don't think so.  None of the Plains states are likely to go Democratic in a presidential election any time soon, one reason being that states such as Kansas and Nebraska are much more socially conservative and religious than Colorado.  While Colorado has its fair share of socons and tea partiers, Kansas does not have Colorado's concentration of hippyish, pot-smoking, ski bum type liberals, so they are pretty different states demographically and culturally.

This is the reason and I'd like to add that unlike Colorado, there's no reason to expect Kansas to be gentrified any time remotely soon. Few states are less attractive to hippies moving in than Kansas. Rich liberals like mountains and water and stuff.

[retromike22]

I don't think so.  None of the Plains states are likely to go Democratic in a presidential election any time soon, one reason being that states such as Kansas and Nebraska are much more socially conservative and religious than Colorado.  While Colorado has its fair share of socons and tea partiers, Kansas does not have Colorado's concentration of hippyish, pot-smoking, ski bum type liberals, so they are pretty different states demographically and culturally.

This is the reason and I'd like to add that unlike Colorado, there's no reason to expect Kansas to be gentrified any time remotely soon. Few states are less attractive to hippies moving in than Kansas. Rich liberals like mountains and water and stuff.

When I went to Lawrence, Kansas it had a bunch of hippies.

[Hamster]

I don't think so.  None of the Plains states are likely to go Democratic in a presidential election any time soon, one reason being that states such as Kansas and Nebraska are much more socially conservative and religious than Colorado.  While Colorado has its fair share of socons and tea partiers, Kansas does not have Colorado's concentration of hippyish, pot-smoking, ski bum type liberals, so they are pretty different states demographically and culturally.

This is the reason and I'd like to add that unlike Colorado, there's no reason to expect Kansas to be gentrified any time remotely soon. Few states are less attractive to hippies moving in than Kansas. Rich liberals like mountains and water and stuff.

Well, the KC suburbs in Kansas have Google Fiber.

[memphis]

I don't think so.  None of the Plains states are likely to go Democratic in a presidential election any time soon, one reason being that states such as Kansas and Nebraska are much more socially conservative and religious than Colorado.  While Colorado has its fair share of socons and tea partiers, Kansas does not have Colorado's concentration of hippyish, pot-smoking, ski bum type liberals, so they are pretty different states demographically and culturally.

Yes, the politics of Colorado are determined by pot smoking ski bum hippies

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Lief was right. Never 4get 2008.

[TDAS04]

I don't think so.  None of the Plains states are likely to go Democratic in a presidential election any time soon, one reason being that states such as Kansas and Nebraska are much more socially conservative and religious than Colorado.  While Colorado has its fair share of socons and tea partiers, Kansas does not have Colorado's concentration of hippyish, pot-smoking, ski bum type liberals, so they are pretty different states demographically and culturally.

Yes, the politics of Colorado are determined by pot smoking ski bum hippies

I didn't say that.  I mentioned that Colorado has plenty socons and tea partiers too, but Kansas has considerably fewer social liberals than Colorado. 

[Person Man]

I don't think so.  None of the Plains states are likely to go Democratic in a presidential election any time soon, one reason being that states such as Kansas and Nebraska are much more socially conservative and religious than Colorado.  While Colorado has its fair share of socons and tea partiers, Kansas does not have Colorado's concentration of hippyish, pot-smoking, ski bum type liberals, so they are pretty different states demographically and culturally.

Yes, the politics of Colorado are determined by pot smoking ski bum hippies

I didn't say that.  I mentioned that Colorado has plenty socons and tea partiers too, but Kansas has considerably fewer social liberals than Colorado. 

That statement can be used to characterize Oregon and Washington, too. I'd imagine if it weren't for El Paso County (which is now actually attracting a lot of people who are not neocons, fundies and teabaggers), Colorado would probably be very similar to Oregon. On the other hand, with a lot of young people with liberal arts degrees being priced out of traditional liberal meccas where half their paychecks would go to rent, its only a matter of time before another state that's intentionally cheap will be gentrified.

Of course, there are states going the opposite direction...