Is New York 2006 the Democratic answer to Texas 1994?

[Smash255]

It's already clear that Pataki will be swept out by Spitzer by, say, 70-30? And in that case, I would expect the state senate to go Democratic and basically solidifying the Empire State's statewide offices for the Democrats. So do you think this could happen?

70-30? Are you serious?

In the words of John McEnroe.  YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!!!!!.  Pataki will most likely lose but nowhere near that amount.  You have a lot of Republicans (like myself) who do not particularly like Pataki but will vote for him rather than Spitzer.  I wouldn't call this the answer to Texas 1994 either.  Better comparision is to New York 1994.- Once popular and well liked New York Governor overstaying his welcome.  Most New Yorkers can't single out an issue why they dislike Pataki- I think most are just tired of him by now.  Long Island is still dominated on the State Senate level by Republicans- many of these guys are very well liked and I don't see the Dems gaining a foothold.  The state senate districts are also drawn in a way and long Island is configured in such a way that makes gerrymandering verrrry difficult.  At least in Nassau all of the minority(those most loyal to Dems)  are concentrated together.  The rest of White Nassau is traditionally Republican dominated.  These are people who have somehat drifted away from some of the National G.O.P. stances and candidates but still remain loyal to the GOP locally.   

How's the snow out in Long Island Patrick?  I hear you're expecting like 9 inches.  Speaking of which, where is the Naso Winter Roundtable when you need it?

Only the east end is getting the 9 inches, most will be in the 4-7 range like the city.  Roads are bad though.  Took me 45 minutes to drivee home from work (Babylon to Massapequa) a trip that takes 15 minutes most nights

[Smash255]

It's already clear that Pataki will be swept out by Spitzer by, say, 70-30? And in that case, I would expect the state senate to go Democratic and basically solidifying the Empire State's statewide offices for the Democrats. So do you think this could happen?

70-30? Are you serious?

In the words of John McEnroe.  YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS!!!!!.  Pataki will most likely lose but nowhere near that amount.  You have a lot of Republicans (like myself) who do not particularly like Pataki but will vote for him rather than Spitzer.  I wouldn't call this the answer to Texas 1994 either.  Better comparision is to New York 1994.- Once popular and well liked New York Governor overstaying his welcome.  Most New Yorkers can't single out an issue why they dislike Pataki- I think most are just tired of him by now.  Long Island is still dominated on the State Senate level by Republicans- many of these guys are very well liked and I don't see the Dems gaining a foothold.  The state senate districts are also drawn in a way and long Island is configured in such a way that makes gerrymandering verrrry difficult.  At least in Nassau all of the minority(those most loyal to Dems)  are concentrated together.  The rest of White Nassau is traditionally Republican dominated.  These are people who have somehat drifted away from some of the National G.O.P. stances and candidates but still remain loyal to the GOP locally.   

Pataki will lose by a TON.

Long Island is a bit strange.  The state senate level is still Republican, but everything else has gone Democratic.  Nassau & Suffolk County Executive's are both Dems, Nassau COunty legislature is controlled by Dems, both counties go for Dems in Presidential elections, 4 out of the 5 LI house members are dems

[The Duke]

They're not really analagous at all.

Texas was a truly Democratic state, and all of a sudden it changed. It was Democrat at the state level, had a majority Democrat congressional delegation, its Senators (Tower, Gramm) were both Democrats in the early 90s and late 80s, Democrats held both chambers of the legislature, and the Governorship always went Democrat.

Then all of a sudden it flipped completely.

Does New York have a history of Republican Senators? Governors? Who holds the lower house of the legislature? How about your house delegation?

New York is a Democrat state temporarily held by the GOP and is now going back Democrat. Texas was a Democrat state that became a GOP stronghold.

Tower and Gramm were both Republicans when they were in the Senate. Gramm was a Democrat originally in the House, but switched to the GOP while still in the House.

But Lloyd Bentsen, a Democrat, was a senator from Texas from 1971-1993.

Yeah, I meant both were former Democrats.