What was the biggest landslide of the 20th Century (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 29, 2024, 09:40:56 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  What was the biggest landslide of the 20th Century (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Huh
#1
1920 Harding
 
#2
1936 FDR
 
#3
1964 LBJ
 
#4
1972 Nixon
 
#5
1984 Reagan
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 138

Author Topic: What was the biggest landslide of the 20th Century  (Read 10049 times)
mianfei
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 321
« on: May 11, 2017, 07:53:35 AM »

Why not 1924.  The gap in terms of popular vote between the two major parties are wider than all the elections you have listed.  Of course 1924 is somewhat of a special election for me.  This is one election where I really like both major party candidates.  I am real fan of both Coolidge and Davis. 
It’s probable that without the third-party La Follette candidacy, Coolidge would have won something like 65—35, which would easily beat any actual popular vote percentage. Still, although Davis did worse than any other Democratic nominee in popular votes – in California, North Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin he received fewer than ten percent of the votes, which no other on-ballot Democratic nominee has ever done – his losing margin was marginally less than Cox’s in 1920.

To my mind, it is a choice between 1920 and 1972, simply because Nixon and Harding dominated the country to an extraordinary extent. Outside antebellum slave states and Oklahoma, Cox carried a mere forty-one of over sixteen hundred counties! In only eleven “free” states did Harding lose a single county, and in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada and Montana Cox did not get an absolute majority in any of his six counties (Columbia, Greene and Monroe in PA, Manistee in Michigan, Clark in Nevada and Mineral in Montana). Moreover, as others have noted the Republicans gained huge margins in Congress.

In 1972, Nixon almost, but not quite, replicated Harding’s free-state dominance over the whole country: McGovern won only 130 counties nationwide (plus D.C. and several equivalents in Alaska) and won many of those by very small margins. Fewer than twenty counties gave McGovern sixty percent of their vote, and only two (Duval in Texas, Shannon in South Dakota) over seventy percent. McGovern was considered so radical he had trouble winning many black counties, and Nixon gained over 45 percent in the only two remaining “never voted Republican” counties of Brooks and Jim Hogg in South Texas (by contrast, Reagan did not manage 30 percent in those two counties). However, the 1972 vote was anti-McGovern, not anti-Democratic per se, and there was very limited coattails for Nixon.

1964 was, like 1972, a vote against the man. The Northeast many have been unable to take Goldwater’s policies, but state-level Republicans held up and more crucially, Goldwater did hold large numbers of rock-ribbed Republican counties everywhere bar the Northeast – although he did so by margins much smaller than usual in countless cases, most strikingly in famously Republican Leslie County, Kentucky where LBJ’s 47 percent more than doubled the previous best by a Democrat.

1936 needs to be set in context of a huge landslide from 1932: although FDR gained in the big cities and the public works-drenched West, Landon actually started rebuilding the GOP elsewhere and held traditional Republican bastions very firmly – e.g. in the previously noted Leslie County Landon got the customary 80 percent plus – whilst he captured 203 counties mainly in the Plains to provide a basis for much more striking gains by Willkie in 1940.
Logged
mianfei
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 321
« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2017, 08:22:17 PM »

Theodore White noted the "deadly uniformity of returns in every region" of both those landslides; the same was true in '84.
That’s not true of 1936: Landon held the rural Northeast very firmly, and also held Unionist parts of Appalachia and the Ozarks sufficiently that he exceeded his national vote share in Missouri, Kentucky and West Virginia (1936 was the last time West Virginia voted more Republican than the nation until 1972).

1984 was quite uniform across all regions – which is why Reagan was able to get close to a fifty-state sweep with a margin seven percentage points less than Harding in 1920. However, at the local level Mondale did hold the loyal majority-minority and then heavily unionized counties well – he only won his home state on majorities in St. Louis, Carlton and Lake Counties than were more than 20 percentage points above what McGovern managed. Moreover, as I have noted Nixon got up to 20 percent more than Reagan could in the South Texas Democratic bastion – in Jim Hogg County Nixon got 47 percent and Reagan less than 30 percent.

However, the combination of large-scale destruction of former party bastions, a huge popular vote victory, and massive coattails makes 1920 far more impressive than 1984. Tennessee not only voted for Harding, but even elected a Republican Governor in Alfred A. Taylor – the last Republican Governor of any former Confederate state until after 1965. In contrast, as was normal during the dealignment era from 1950 to 1980, Reagan’s coattails were minimal, with a net gain of one Governor and farm-crisis-induced losses in North Dakota and Washington.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.024 seconds with 13 queries.