UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But logically thought through and well argued, and sometimes that's the main thing.

[ChrisDR68]

... and, to summarise:
"Near certain" hold 2
"Likely" hold 9
"Lean" hold 17
"Lean" loss 10
"Likely" loss 13
"Near certain" loss 6

Don't take too seriously.

So they could poll around the same level that they did in the 1970 general election according to what most opinion polls are showing at the moment (8.5%) but instead of winning just the 6 seats they won in that election they could end up with the 28 you've worked out here.

Extraordinary

[Phony Moderate]

... and, to summarise:
"Near certain" hold 2
"Likely" hold 9
"Lean" hold 17
"Lean" loss 10
"Likely" loss 13
"Near certain" loss 6

Don't take too seriously.

So they could poll around the same level that they did in the 1970 general election according to what most opinion polls are showing at the moment (8.5%) but instead of winning just the 6 seats they won in that election they could end up with the 28 you've worked out here.

Extraordinary

Not really; they didn't know where they were likely to do well back in those days.

[DL]

... and, to summarise:
"Near certain" hold 2
"Likely" hold 9
"Lean" hold 17
"Lean" loss 10
"Likely" loss 13
"Near certain" loss 6

Don't take too seriously.

So they could poll around the same level that they did in the 1970 general election according to what most opinion polls are showing at the moment (8.5%) but instead of winning just the 6 seats they won in that election they could end up with the 28 you've worked out here.

Extraordinary

In 1970 the Liberals had only a dozen incumbent MPs seeking re-election. The LibDems now have over 50 seats and its a lot easier to hold onto seats when you have incumbents running for re-election some of whom have a local following and organization.

[ObserverIE]

The UUP must have a chance of beating Sinn Féin in FST, given the pact, but you'd probably have to make SF slight favourites given that a unity Unionist candidate fell just short last time.

Elliot is the sort of, em, abrasive personality who is more likely to motivate soft SDLP voters to turn up and lend the vote to Gildernew than Rodney Connor would have been in 2010.

[ObserverIE]

But logically thought through and well argued, and sometimes that's the main thing.

Based on local results, I'd have put down Cheltenham and the two Sutton seats as "likely" rather than "lean" (and Twickenham would move in the opposite direction), and I wouldn't be surprised to see them holding Cheadle.

I suspect Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk is their best hope in Scotland barring Orkney and Shetland and Kennedy's seat, whereas North Devon strikes me as very vulnerable and Cambridge as unlikely. Portsmouth South? - God alone knows.

I'm trying to think of anywhere where they might sneak a win based on strong local presence and a freak vote split elsewhere - South East Cornwall? Watford? Bosworth? Montgomeryshire (if Lembit Öpik hasn't irretrievably poisoned the well there)?

[Frodo]

General Election 2015: Ukip could form coalition with Tories and DUP

By Adam Justice | IB Times – 12 hours ago

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[Joe Republic]

^ Wouldn't that just annoy the UUP (what's left of it)?

[ObserverIE]

^ Wouldn't that just annoy the UUP (what's left of it)?

The UUP are just as xenophobic as the DUP, so not really.

[Joe Republic]

Speaking of NI, and I vaguely remember asking this before (and either way have long forgotten the answer), but why are there no ideologically conservative parties on the nationalist side, and no ideologically progressive parties on the unionist side (other than the tiny PUP and the disastrous NI21)?

[ObserverIE]

Speaking of NI, and I vaguely remember asking this before (and either way have long forgotten the answer), but why are there no ideologically conservative parties on the nationalist side, and no ideologically progressive parties on the unionist side (other than the tiny PUP and the disastrous NI21)?

That depends on how you define ideologically conservative or progressive.

Most parties in Northern Ireland primarily base their appeal on national identity. Economically, most of them are centrist or centre-leftish; public spending makes up a much bigger component of the Northern economy than in just about anywhere else in Europe, and when the pork goes to so many plates, there's not going to be a huge interest in slash-and-burn economics.

SF are notably to the left of most other parties (in part because they're keeping an eye on matters South of the border). The SDLP are ideologically - insofar as the SDLP do ideology - fairly mild social democrats.

On "social" issues, both are within the Irish mainstream of being conservative (the SDLP very much so) on abortion (although there are some pro-choicers within SF) and relaxed to supportive of gay rights and gay marriage. They're not going to run ahead of their voter base. Neither will touch ACLU-style laïcité with a bargepole.

The UUP were until 1985 allied to the British Tory party and contain whatever most of whatever semi-coherent economic right-wingers there are in NI politics. These include the group of bloggers who agitated for the UCUNF pact with the Conservatives at the 2010 elections and whose main legacy was to drive Sylvia Hermon out of the party and thereby remove the UUP's presence in the House of Commons. Their support base is traditionally more middle-class than the DUP's but they're also fond of pork, especially the sort that the middle-classes and security forces benefit from. They're more relaxed about welfare cuts because they believe that welfare mainly benefits "themmuns".

(And the fact that Unionism traditionally allied itself with the British right meant that Nationalism traditionally allied itself against the British right - first with the Liberals until the War of Independence and then with Labour.)

The DUP is a right-populist party with strong religious strains, and again only favour the type of public spending cuts that they believe will disproportionally hit "the other sort". It may contain economic right-wingers but it's not very economically right-wing as such.

As for the PUP, it is first and foremost the front organisation of the UVF; it may mouth vaguely leftish
utterances but they're not the reason why its supporters vote for it.

There's also Alliance, which tends to attract secular left-wingers and ecumenist types, and there are the micro-parties of both right (NI Conservatives, UKIP) and left (PBP, SP) where the economic true believers go.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Basically all Norn Iron parties stand for MOAR MONIES and blatant communal headcounting. The Alliance are the exception, standing mostly for ineffectual handwringing. Almost everything else is window dressing.

[ObserverIE]

Basically all Norn Iron parties stand for MOAR MONIES and blatant communal headcounting. The Alliance are the exception, standing mostly for ineffectual handwringing. Almost everything else is window dressing.

I think you can regard that as the Executive Summary of the previous, longer, post.

[afleitch]

Basically all Norn Iron parties stand for MOAR MONIES and blatant communal headcounting. The Alliance are the exception, standing mostly for ineffectual handwringing. Almost everything else is window dressing.

How else can you get votes from civil servants?

[Clyde1998]

Scotland Survation/Unison Poll:
SNP - 47.1% [+1.8]
Lab - 28.0% [+0.5]
Con - 14.5% [-0.5]
Lib - 4.0% [-1.0]
UKIP - 3.4% [+0.2]
Grn - 2.3% [-1.1]

Fieldwork: 6-10 March 2015

[YL]

More polls, all online panel ones.

Yesterday's YouGov: Lab 34 Con 33 UKIP 14 LD 8 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 4
Today's YouGov: Con 35 Lab 33 UKIP 13 LD 8 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 4
Today's Populus: Lab 34 Con 31 UKIP 17 LD 9 Green 5 SNP 5

[Filuwaúrdjan]

UKIP have suspended an MEP due to accusations of fraud.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

She's a candidate for Folkestone too.

[Clyde1998]

Scotland Survation/Daily Record poll:
SNP - 47.1% [n/c]
Lab - 26.1% [-1.9]
Con - 15.5% [+1.0]
UKIP - 4.3% [+0.9]
Lib - 4.0% [n/c]
Grn - 2.2% [-0.1]

85.1% of SNP supporters voted 'yes' in the referendum - this figure is 19.4% for Labour and 3.2% for the Conservatives. Incredibly, 23.6% of 2011 Lib Dem voters and 18.9% of 2011 Labour voters plan to vote SNP in May.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP - 49.8% [+0.6]
Lab - 26.3% [-0.6]
Con - 13.3% [+0.4]
Lib - 5.0% [n/c]
UKIP - 2.5% [+0.3]
Grn - 2.0% [-1.1]

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP - 39.4% [-1.9]
Lab - 22.8% [+0.3]
Con - 14.6% [+2.7]
Grn - 11.1% [-1.5]
UKIP - 5.5% [+0.5]
Lib - 5.3% [-0.4]

The near proportional Scottish Parliament would look like (according to ScotlandVotes):
*SNP - 69 seats (N/C on 2011)
*Lab - 26 seats (-11)
*Con - 15 seats (N/C)
*Grn - 11 seats (+9)
*Lib - 5 seats (N/C)
*UKIP - 3 seats (+3)

Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes - 50.9% [+3.2]
No - 49.1% [-3.2]

The independence movement have picked up 8.7% of No voters since September, while the pro-union movement have picked up just 2.5% of Yes voters. Those who didn't vote split 51.6% to No; 48.4% to Yes.

If there was to be another referendum on Scottish independence when, if at all, do you think this referendum should take place?
Within the next 2 years - 17.9%
In 2 - 5 years time - 22.5%
In 5 - 10 years time - 19.1%
In 10+ years time - 20.5%
Never - 20.1%

A pretty staggering 40.4% of Scots want another referendum within the next five years, while 59.5% want another one within ten years - the issue doesn't seem to have gone away. 80.0% of people believe there should be a second referendum at some point, which is similar to the number of people who wanted a referendum before the 2014 one was announced.

34.8% of Yes voters want another referendum within the next two years, while 71.7% want a second vote within the next five years. No voters are less likely to want another referendum, with only 29.7% backing another referendum within the next ten years.

Fieldwork: 12-17 March

[Helsinkian]

She's a candidate for Folkestone too.

Do they have time to put up another candidate?

[Frodo]

I asked this question in the Canadian 2015 elections thread, and I will ask it here: could what happened in Israel happen in the UK? Polls are showing the contest as neck-and-neck, but could the final election result see the Conservatives actually increase their seat totals in Parliament, and strengthen their hold on government, enabling PM David Cameron to stay around at least until the end of the decade?  Does anyone see that happening?

[Gary J]

Helsinkian, there is still time to nominate another candidate. In the UK you only need the signatures of ten electors to nominate a parliamentary candidate (a proposer, a seconder and eight assentors) apart from paying a £500 deposit and filling in a few forms. You can deliver a nomination paper to the local constituency returning officer between the publication of notice of election and the close of nominations.

I am taking dates and times from the Combined Timetable for elections on 7 May 2015, which the Slough returning officer has issued, based on the Electoral Commission guidance.

Parliament is to be dissolved on Monday 30 March. A writ (a royal command to elect a member to the new Parliament) will be sent to each returning officer.  The writ is received on Tuesday 31 March. The returning officer then has to publish a notice of election, which must be by 4 pm on Thursday 2 April but may be earlier. The close of nominations, which is a very rigid deadline, is 4 pm on Thursday 9 April. If a prospective candidate has not delivered valid forms by that time, they will not be a candidate in the election.

[YL]

I asked this question in the Canadian 2015 elections thread, and I will ask it here: could what happened in Israel happen in the UK? Polls are showing the contest as neck-and-neck, but could the final election result see the Conservatives actually increase their seat totals in Parliament, and strengthen their hold on government, enabling PM David Cameron to stay around at least until the end of the decade?  Does anyone see that happening?

Hopefully not.  But the polls could indeed be wrong, as they were last time (over estimating the Lib Dems), and also it's possible things can change in the campaign.

[Blair]

I asked this question in the Canadian 2015 elections thread, and I will ask it here: could what happened in Israel happen in the UK? Polls are showing the contest as neck-and-neck, but could the final election result see the Conservatives actually increase their seat totals in Parliament, and strengthen their hold on government, enabling PM David Cameron to stay around at least until the end of the decade?  Does anyone see that happening?

Yeah Cameron could surge, I mean he's got everything in his favour (I'm a labourite as well!) An economy that is improving, strong leadership ratings and the incumbency factor. However they've been telling us that this surge is going to happen for the last year-they were suppose to pull ahead in the polls in the Autumn according to there leadership team.

If it was like 1992- a normal lab vs con race they could, but there's too many other factors (UKIP,SNP, post-expenses scandal, nasty party image, Miliband debate etcs)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What happened in Israel wasn't so much a late swing to the government as a late swing from a smaller government party to a larger one (and in the context of proportional representation in a heavily pillarised society with a notoriously fragmented electorate: none of these things are true of Britain) so I'm not sure if it's an especially relevant (potential) comparison.

The general pattern, and I must stress pattern rather than rule here, is that real swings - that is, those that show up at the ballot box - during the campaign period proper are normally against the government (the key government recovery period is normally in the months prior to that - a stage we're still in actually) and also that late swings are rare. Of course 1992 reminds us that a pattern is not the same thing as a rule.