UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[You kip if you want to...]

Or it quickly becomes a game of 6 vs. 1.

And fair enough to the Greens, but why SNP and Plaid? 85% of the country can't even vote for them.

They had separate Scottish, Welsh and NI debates last time. What's wrong with that?

[Lurker]

This will be a total mess. Debates with as many as seven party leaders can work reasonably well if there a two relatively clear blocks standing against each other, as is often the case in the Scandinavian countries, but it should be more unworkable when you have no "alliances" like in the UK. Should be fun, though.

[Lurker]

Or it quickly becomes a game of 6 vs. 1.

And fair enough to the Greens, but why SNP and Plaid? 85% of the country can't even vote for them.

They had separate Scottish, Welsh and NI debates last time. What's wrong with that?

Do you think so? A far greater number of Lib-Dem voters have fled to Labour than to any other party (according to Ashcroft), so I would imagine that Clegg would spend much of his time attacking Miliband. And as for the SNP, most of its targets are Labour MPs.  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm clearly in no position to estimate the mood on the ground (who is, though?), but as far as I can see the line doesn't play too well with the mainstream media.

That's because they are bunch of poshos with private educations and Oxbridge degrees who understand nothing of life outside their own incestuous bubble.

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Yes, this is a serious concern.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

People in the know, is Wood an effective public speaker?

No.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A seven-way debate would likely be a cacophonous joke.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If we're letting Plaid in, why not the DUP as well? Lets take this softcockery to its natural and logical conclusion.

[politicus]

I'm clearly in no position to estimate the mood on the ground (who is, though?), but as far as I can see the line doesn't play too well with the mainstream media.

That's because they are bunch of poshos with private educations and Oxbridge degrees who understand nothing of life outside their own incestuous bubble.

Yeah, that is actually quite a strange phenomenon. Isn't that economically inefficient for media owners to recruit journos from a background that is so unrelatable to their readers/viewers? You lose the "neighbours boy/girl" identification and the choice of topics and angles that interest the general public becomes skewered even more than with the general middle class bias of journalism.
I can understand it for BBC, but when it comes to private media there is the "bad for business" aspect.
 
Britain even recruits a large share of its comedians from Oxbridge (incl. the one in my sig), which is even stranger than the journos.

[Insula Dei]

If we're letting Plaid in, why not the DUP as well?

The DUP itself is also curious about this.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If we're letting Plaid in, why not the DUP as well? Lets take this softcockery to its natural and logical conclusion.

and true to form...

everyone aboard the clowncar!

maybe we need knock-out rounds or something. Have it hosted like The Weakest Link.

[politicus]

If we're letting Plaid in, why not the DUP as well? Lets take this softcockery to its natural and logical conclusion.

It isn't the logical conclusion. Given that NI has it's own separate party system, where the national British parties don't compete, including Wales and Scotland and excluding Northern Ireland makes perfect sense.

[Insula Dei]

I think we need Galloway up there.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why isn't the nationally relevant Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern being invited? Surely they want their say?

[afleitch]

The Scottish Labour Party have not provided official membership figures since 2008 when it stood at 17,000. I heard, from a trustworthy source tonight it might now be in the 5000-7000 range which if true, it would have less members than the Greens, Tories (who still have a lot of residual old duffers) and the SNP which has now surpassed 100,000 members. Important stuff in advance of any ground game.

[EPG]

Or it quickly becomes a game of 6 vs. 1.

And fair enough to the Greens, but why SNP and Plaid? 85% of the country can't even vote for them.

They had separate Scottish, Welsh and NI debates last time. What's wrong with that?

Yes, there will be more people critical of Cameron, though they will also criticise Labour. However, there will be weak coherence of each participant's critique and it will be less convincing than a sustained argument from one or two leaders. It is noteworthy that with the Greens, Plaid and SNP each represented, the proposed format will give strong representation to left-wing critiques of the UK government.

SNP have won more votes and MPs than the Greens at every general election and were therefore chosen by more British people when it mattered - perhaps the question I should be asking is how "choosable" they were. There the SNP do worse, but nonetheless in 2010, a majority of the country couldn't vote for the Green Party of England and Wales.

I'm clearly in no position to estimate the mood on the ground (who is, though?), but as far as I can see the line doesn't play too well with the mainstream media.

That's because they are bunch of poshos with private educations and Oxbridge degrees who understand nothing of life outside their own incestuous bubble.

Yeah, that is actually quite a strange phenomenon. Isn't that economically inefficient for media owners to recruit journos from a background that is so unrelatable to their readers/viewers? You lose the "neighbours boy/girl" identification and the choice of topics and angles that interest the general public becomes skewered even more than with the general middle class bias of journalism.
I can understand it for BBC, but when it comes to private media there is the "bad for business" aspect.
 
Britain even recruits a large share of its comedians from Oxbridge (incl. the one in my sig), which is even stranger than the journos.

Veering off-topic... England is a class-based society, but socially harmonious, as evidenced by their lack of recent radicalism and revolution. Oxbridge, like everybody on every rung on the social ladder (Oxbridge being by no means the top rung), mostly prefer to vest trust in their superiors than their inferiors on the ladder. They prefer to identify with their superiors, and kick downwards at their inferiors. Another hypothesis is that the UK education system is sufficiently competitive or meritocratic that Oxbridge alumni have credible claim to be the strongest candidates in most fields of intellectual activity. A weaker version of this idea is that Oxbridge selects strongly for cleverness and self-confidence, which may not reflect intelligence but are necessary in politics, journalism and comedy. A fourth hypothesis is that networking matters, so small networks and establishment institutions like comedians or well-respected newspapers will be perpetuated by Oxbridge or even the minor aristocracy, whereas déclassé insurgencies like anarchism, monetarism or the Daily Mail will be more open to other contesters.

[DC Al Fine]

Or it quickly becomes a game of 6 vs. 1.

And fair enough to the Greens, but why SNP and Plaid? 85% of the country can't even vote for them.

They had separate Scottish, Welsh and NI debates last time. What's wrong with that?

Yes, there will be more people critical of Cameron, though they will also criticise Labour. However, there will be weak coherence of each participant's critique and it will be less convincing than a sustained argument from one or two leaders. It is noteworthy that with the Greens, Plaid and SNP each represented, the proposed format will give strong representation to left-wing critiques of the UK government.

SNP have won more votes and MPs than the Greens at every general election and were therefore chosen by more British people when it mattered - perhaps the question I should be asking is how "choosable" they were. There the SNP do worse, but nonetheless in 2010, a majority of the country couldn't vote for the Green Party of England and Wales.

My experience in Canadian politics is that separatist parties make for crappy debates.

[Clyde1998]

Or it quickly becomes a game of 6 vs. 1.

And fair enough to the Greens, but why SNP and Plaid? 85% of the country can't even vote for them.

They had separate Scottish, Welsh and NI debates last time. What's wrong with that?

Yes, there will be more people critical of Cameron, though they will also criticise Labour. However, there will be weak coherence of each participant's critique and it will be less convincing than a sustained argument from one or two leaders. It is noteworthy that with the Greens, Plaid and SNP each represented, the proposed format will give strong representation to left-wing critiques of the UK government.

SNP have won more votes and MPs than the Greens at every general election and were therefore chosen by more British people when it mattered - perhaps the question I should be asking is how "choosable" they were. There the SNP do worse, but nonetheless in 2010, a majority of the country couldn't vote for the Green Party of England and Wales.

My experience in Canadian politics is that separatist parties make for crappy debates.

The 2011 Scottish election debate convinced a lot of people to vote SNP - here's the STV debate if you want to watch it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZWow6nKvDk

The opinion poll at the start of the programme suggests the SNP and Labour were level before this debate - and the SNP won the election by a landslide.

The SNP will probably want answers about the Smith Commission, on more powers to Scotland, and Plaid Cymru will probably be asking for more powers for Wales. But both won't focus on this for the entire debate - and I'll expect both to bring up issues about poverty and inequality in a debate.

[EPG]

My experience in Canadian politics is that separatist parties make for crappy debates.

It helps that all the participants share a mother language... even Plaid.

[You kip if you want to...]

My experience in Canadian politics is that separatist parties make for crappy debates.

It helps that all the participants share a mother language... even Plaid.

Oh, the leader of Plaid Cymru will find a chance to speak a good measure of Welsh in the debate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's unlikely for reasons unrelated to whether she'd like to or not...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

My experience in Canadian politics is that separatist parties make for crappy debates.

It helps that all the participants share a mother language... even Plaid.

Oh, the leader of Plaid Cymru will find a chance to speak a good measure of Welsh in the debate.

Wood supposedly isn't fluent.

[politicus]

SNP lead shrinking in Scotland in the two latest polls:

http://may2015.com/featured/is-labour-starting-to-turn-the-tide-in-scotland/

[afleitch]

SNP lead shrinking in Scotland in the two latest polls:

http://may2015.com/featured/is-labour-starting-to-turn-the-tide-in-scotland/

Not based on those polls, no. The Panelbase poll that saw a huge drop in SNP support asked the Voting Intention question third. The first question was about how oil prices affected your view on independence. You really shouldn't do that. It's how they got interesting polls results during the referendum campaign. So the fact they got a result that is out of line with other polls isn't surprising. Survation saw SNP down two and SNP up two. Mori saw Labour up 1 and the SNP steady, though in fact the figure reported as 52% for the SNP was infact 52.5% and would usually be rounded up. So technically both parties were up one on that poll.

At the moment, it would be not be accurate to say that the SNP lead is falling. It's been pretty much the same as it has been since December.

[Clyde1998]

SNP lead shrinking in Scotland in the two latest polls:

http://may2015.com/featured/is-labour-starting-to-turn-the-tide-in-scotland/

Not based on those polls, no. The Panelbase poll that saw a huge drop in SNP support asked the Voting Intention question third. The first question was about how oil prices affected your view on independence. You really shouldn't do that. It's how they got interesting polls results during the referendum campaign. So the fact they got a result that is out of line with other polls isn't surprising. Survation saw SNP down two and SNP up two. Mori saw Labour up 1 and the SNP steady, though in fact the figure reported as 52% for the SNP was infact 52.5% and would usually be rounded up. So technically both parties were up one on that poll.

At the moment, it would be not be accurate to say that the SNP lead is falling. It's been pretty much the same as it has been since December.

The SNP and Labour are just moving around a certain point for each pollster.

The Panelbase order was very strange. They've done a similar thing before though - in a referendum poll that put the Yes campaign ahead in August 2013.

***

On a partially related note - there was a by-election for the Fife council yesterday:

Kirkcaldy East
SNP - 47.3% (+10.9%)
LAB - 35.3% (-14.7%)
CON - 7.2% (+1.2%)
GRN - 4.1% (+4.1%)
UKIP - 3.8% (+3.8%)
LIB - 1.3% (-1.5%)
OTH/IND - 1.0% (-3.8%)
Turnout - 27.27% (-7.3% on 2012 Election)
Swing - 12.8% from Labour to SNP.

A massive swing to the SNP in Gordon Brown's backyard - although I do note the low turnout.

[joevsimp]

Why isn't the nationally relevant Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern being invited? Surely they want their say?

they've actually re-formed as the National Health Action Party, they contested the Euros last year.