UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

South East

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The East.

[Sol]

Dumb question Al, but why does Labor do so poorly in Brighton? I thought it was a very left-wing kind of place?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caroline_Lucas

[Sol]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caroline_Lucas

Well, ya, but Brighton Kemptown and Hove voted for the conservatives. Is this a sort of "disunion of the left" type deal due to vote-splitting?

Also, why did the Greens get prominent down there and not the LibDems.

[Clyde1998]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caroline_Lucas

Well, ya, but Brighton Kemptown and Hove voted for the conservatives. Is this a sort of "disunion of the left" type deal due to vote-splitting?

Also, why did the Greens get prominent down there and not the LibDems.

There's a large student vote. The polls suggest that the Greens are currently second amount younger voters (18-24 year olds). The Greens finished well among that age category in the last election as well.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Kemptown used to be much more left than Pavillion, but it has a) various white working-class estates that have dips in turnout and flirt with certain right-populists (expect it to have the highest UKIP vote in Brighton) b) a healthy Green/Lib split (a lot of Brighton's gays are in the western wards) and c) some affluent villages in the east.

Hove used to be very very Tory in the 80's. I've always seen it as a retirement land, but apparently the place has been degreying recently which has meant it is more competitive overall.

As for why the Greens chose Brighton to target? Who knows. Probably the gays.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kemptown being the more rightwards of the two Brighton proper seats is more a comment on social change in Pavilion than anything thats happened in Kemptown. And obviously also the boundary changes that brought in those places east of Brighton.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dumb question Al, but why does Labor do so poorly in Brighton? I thought it was a very left-wing kind of place?

Labour doesn't do badly there (in 2010 the figures ran: 35% in Kemptown, 33% in Hove, 29% in Pavilion), but in general Brighton skews Left/Alternative rather than Left/Proletarian, which ought to answer your question. Labour polls best in sketchier suburbs like Whitehawk than in the trendy city centre, though is certainly not without support there.

[You kip if you want to...]

Although by some accounts, since taking the council in 2011, they've proved that they couldn't be trusted to run a bath.

[ChrisDR68]

So with just 110 days to go to the big day (and being someone with a certain fondness for stats ) here is my stab at predicting the result:

......................................................................% Vote.....Popular Vote.....Seats       
Conservatives (David Cameron)........................35.1........10,445,874........293
Labour (Ed Miliband)..........................................30.9..........9,195,940........278
Liberal Democrats (Nick Clegg)..........................13.5..........4,017,643..........31
UK Independence Party (Nigel Farage)..............11.3..........3,362,917............2
Scottish National Party (Nicola Sturgeon)............2.2.............654,727..........23
Others.................................................................7.0..........2,083,223..........23

........................................................................100.0........29,760,324........650

Change from 2010
Con..........-1.0...........-257,780...........-13..............(10,703,654)
Lab..........+1.9..........+589,423..........+20...............(8,606,517)
LibDem.....-9.5........-2,818,605...........-26...............(6,836,248)
UKIP........+8.2.......+2,443,446............+2..................(919,471)
SNP..........+0.5.........+163,341...........+17.................(491,386)     
Oth...........-0.1.............-47,105..............0...............(2,130,328)     


On these seat numbers a centrist and centre right coalition of Con/Lib/DUP would give a majority 14 with a working majority of 24.

An unlikely centrist and centre left coalition of Lab/Lib/SNP would also be possible (mathematically at least) which funnily enough would also have a majority of 14

[Zanas]

What on earth would these 23 others be ? Plaid and Ulster ? Greens ?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

18 NI constituencies

1 Green
4 Plaid? (Perhaps he is predicting they regain Ceredigion)

[politicus]

What on earth would these 23 others be ? Plaid and Ulster ? Greens ?

Well, in 2010 you had:

BNP    1.9%
Greens 0.9%
Sinn Féin    0.6%
DUP 0.6%    
Plaid Cymru 0.6%     
SDLP 0.4%
UCU-NF 0.3%
English Democrats 0.2%
Alliance 0.1%
Respect 0.1%
TUV 0.1%
Independents 0.2%
Scottish Greens 0.1%
Health Concern 0.1%
Christian  0.1%

That is 6.3%

It all adds up.

Seats were:

Sinn Fein 5
DUP    8    
Plaid Cymru 3
SDLP 3   
Alliance 1
Greens 1
Sylvia Hermon (Indie, ex UUP) 1

That is 22 right there.

[Phony Moderate]

Turnout will be up to 68-69% imo.

[joevsimp]

What on earth would these 23 others be ? Plaid and Ulster ? Greens ?

Well, in 2010 you had:
<snip>

Seats were:

Sinn Fein 5
DUP    8    
Plaid Cymru 3
SDLP 3   
Alliance 1
Greens 1
Sylvia Hermon (Indie, ex UUP) 1

That is 22 right there.

speaker?

[politicus]

What on earth would these 23 others be ? Plaid and Ulster ? Greens ?

Well, in 2010 you had:
<snip>

Seats were:

Sinn Fein 5
DUP    8    
Plaid Cymru 3
SDLP 3   
Alliance 1
Greens 1
Sylvia Hermon (Indie, ex UUP) 1

That is 22 right there.

speaker?

Yeah, that too.

[Vega]

Don't forget the Respect party!

[politicus]

Don't forget the Respect party!

I wasn't.

[doktorb]

Don't forget the Respect party!

[Snide Voice]

Why, everybody else has

[/Snide Voice]

[EPG]

Although by some accounts, since taking the council in 2011, they've proved that they couldn't be trusted to run a bath.

Well... this is the kind of received wisdom that is true and relevant, right up to the point at which we see numbers and it suddenly isn't. Truth is, we have no idea what will happen in Pavilion. The 2014 European elections had similar turnout to the 2011 locals, and similar results: Labour, Greens and Conservatives in that order bunched tightly together, albeit with a strong Ukip presence at the Euros hitting all other parties. The Greens easily outpolled Labour in Pavilion wards in 2011; since then, they have suffered an 11% swing in a by-election to Labour, on a typically-low turnout for local by-elections, but on the other hand that was a (national) high point for Labour's popularity when they were occasionally getting 40% rather than 30-35% today.

[Silent Hunter]

Don't forget the Respect party!

[Snide Voice]

Why, everybody else has

[/Snide Voice]

Along, with that matter the BNP. (Except for the Foreign Office, who managed a couple of days ago to mistakenly claim the British National Party was organising strikes in Bangladesh...)

[You kip if you want to...]

Don't forget the Respect party!

[Snide Voice]

Why, everybody else has

[/Snide Voice]

Along, with that matter the BNP.

The bank?

[YL]

Don't forget the Respect party!

[Snide Voice]

Why, everybody else has

[/Snide Voice]

Ah, but have the voters of Bradford West?