Canadian federal election - 2015

[RogueBeaver]

Fife reported last night that Harper's inner circle is pushing him to drop the writ in early August.

[Holmes]

For Trudeau to lose Papineau, over 4k 2011 Bloc voters would need to swing to the NDP, assuming no swing towards (or against) Trudeau. I think it's possible. But not entirely probable. Too early to tell either way.

[King of Kensington]

Cullen calls for NDP-Liberal coalition in a minority parliament.

[Boston Bread]

Cullen calls for NDP-Liberal coalition in a minority parliament.

Trudeau has said no way to a coalition.

[King of Kensington]

Of course he did.  But let's see what happens. 

[RogueBeaver]

They'll vote down a Throne Speech if given the opportunity, no doubt about that.

[DC Al Fine]

I stand by my prediction that there won't be a coalition, but there will be something more structured than trying to bribe another party for every major vote.

[RogueBeaver]

Because we all need a good laugh. Interestingly, former Martin Board member Charles Bird supports Mendicino.

[2952-0-0]

Assuming it's an NDP-led minority government, the Liberals will be wise not to be so pushy as to threaten an election every two weeks. They should vote for every NDP budget, while critiquing from the outside. Otherwise, the NDP will try (and probably succeed) to paint the Liberals as being so power-hungry they're willing to risk a return of the Big Bad Tories. They're steadily drip-feed embarrassing information about the Harper government as red meat to their base and to encourage the election of an unelectable Conservative leader.

And once the Liberals *do* force an early election, all the NDP needs to do is appeal for all voters who dislike Harper, run on their relatively moderate record, and win a solid majority (or a strong mandate if FPTP is abolished by then). The Liberal and Conservative leaders resign before 11 PM Eastern time on election night.

Therefore, the Liberals should at least outwardly cooperate with the NDP, while using every vote they disagree with them as an opportunity to distinguish themselves among more moderate voters who share antipathy towards Harper. This places them in a stronger spot to win in 2019.

[2952-0-0]

Because we all need a good laugh. Interestingly, former Martin Board member Charles Bird supports Mendicino.

I honestly don't know why Eve Adams was placed in a must-win urban riding where she has absolutely no connection. The Liberals should have milked Dimtri for all his dirt on Harper and then allowed Eve to run in an outer 905 riding which is not high on their target list. Somewhere like, say, Milton.

[RogueBeaver]

If the Grits want to make our jokes their problem, they're more than welcome. Only Stronach herself brokering this switch would have made it more hilarious.

[Boston Bread]

Will Harper support Senate abolition?

https://twitter.com/IvisonJ/status/624366843713622020

[King of Kensington]

I honestly don't know why Eve Adams was placed in a must-win urban riding where she has absolutely no connection. The Liberals should have milked Dimtri for all his dirt on Harper and then allowed Eve to run in an outer 905 riding which is not high on their target list. Somewhere like, say, Milton.

Yeah, that was really stupid.  Meanwhile Bill Morneau is being touted as a potential finance minister.  He was initially set to run in Don Valley West until the former MP objected.  Then he was sent to Toronto Centre, which is a terrible fit with the territory north of Bloor lopped off.  Why didn't they run him in Eglinton-Lawrence where he could directly challenge Joe Oliver?

[RogueBeaver]

This is fycking insane. He might as well wish for unicorns in every household.

[Holmes]

There's just no way Harper will announce he's for Senate abolition, right? He can't be that stupid? How many Senators has he nominated? How many of them are involved in scandals? That'd be such a transparent opportunistic flip flop.

[2952-0-0]

I honestly don't know why Eve Adams was placed in a must-win urban riding where she has absolutely no connection. The Liberals should have milked Dimtri for all his dirt on Harper and then allowed Eve to run in an outer 905 riding which is not high on their target list. Somewhere like, say, Milton.

Yeah, that was really stupid.  Meanwhile Bill Morneau is being touted as a potential finance minister.  He was initially set to run in Don Valley West until the former MP objected.  Then he was sent to Toronto Centre, which is a terrible fit with the territory north of Bloor lopped off.  Why didn't they run him in Eglinton-Lawrence where he could directly challenge Joe Oliver?

On second thought, maybe Dmitri demanded a must-win seat for Eve in exchange for all his dirt on Harper. And now that Eve has her seat, he can give his dirt at his leisurely pace. Well played, sir.

[RogueBeaver]

Eglinton-Lawrence on Sunday looks to be extremely messy. Not quite Iggy/Copps messy, but close.

[Hatman 🍁]

RIP Canadian Senate. FF.

[Hash]

I hope Canadians are smart enough to understand that the Senate is impossible to abolish and will see right through Steve's latest stunt? Right?

[King of Kensington]

Two polls today.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/324/ndp-minority-seen/

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/07/24/tories-take-huge-lead-in-latest-poll

The latter is almost certainly an outlier.

[Boston Bread]

The Mainstreet poll's face values don't include leaners. With leaners it is 35 CPC, 29 NDP, 27 LPC. It's also their first federal poll so we don't know if we're seeing a trend.

[RogueBeaver]

Absolutely brutal Delacourt: why does the LPC exist?

Dippers here may be short on cash, but their opponents are short on just about everything else.

[RogueBeaver]

Althia Raj saying that the Senate story is untrue.

[2952-0-0]

Althia Raj saying that the Senate story is untrue.

So it was a trial balloon and the reaction online was so horrible Harper had to cancel it.

[RogueBeaver]

Ivison says his source told him the announcement got pulled once it leaked. Methinks it was the same source who said Harper could resign last winter.