|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 27, 2020, 09:14:18 PM

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  IA-Quinnipiac: Paul & Rubio trail Hillary, but they lead Biden
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: IA-Quinnipiac: Paul & Rubio trail Hillary, but they lead Biden  (Read 961 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 55,720
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 24, 2013, 05:05:45 AM »

This is Quinnipiac's first Iowa poll ever:

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

45-50 disapprove

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?

48-37 Clinton

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?

46-42 Clinton

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote?

40-39 Rubio

If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Rand Paul the Republican, for whom would you vote?

44-39 Paul

...

From May 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,411 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=1898
Logged
bballrox4717
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 951


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2013, 05:36:05 AM »

If Biden is trailing Rand Paul of all people, he should be reevaluating his 2016 plans. It's the shame the public thinks so lowly of him as a presidential candidate.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,262
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2013, 07:03:01 AM »

Clinton 48%
Rubio 37%

Rubio 40%
Biden 39%

Clinton 46%
Paul 42%

Paul 44%
Biden 39%

Here are some interesting crosstabs:

Clinton vs. Rubio crosstabs:

college grad: Clinton +3
not college grad: Clinton +13
age 18-29: Clinton +19
age 30-44: Clinton +8
age 45-64: Clinton +9
age 65+: Clinton +10

Biden vs. Rubio crosstabs:

college grad: Rubio +8
not college grad: Biden +2
age 18-29: Biden +7
age 30-44: Biden +1
age 45-64: Rubio +4
age 65: Rubio +2

Clinton vs. Paul crosstabs:

college grad: Clinton +7
not college grad: Clinton +4
age 18-29: Paul +4
age 30-44: Clinton +3
age 45-64: Clinton +6
age 65+: Clinton +10

Biden vs. Paul crosstabs:

college grad: Paul +2
not college grad: Paul +7
age 18-29: Paul +7
age 30-44: Paul +6
age 45-64: Paul +7
age 65: Paul +1

Clinton's weakest age group against Rubio is again 30-44 year olds (just barely), again in sharp contrast to Obama, who did markedly worse among olds.

But Paul's strength among youngs is pretty remarkable.  Leading Clinton by 4 among the under 30 bracket(?!?).  Also, Rubio seems to do better among college grads than non-grads, whereas with Paul it's the opposite.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 55,720
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2013, 07:10:19 AM »

The 18-29 Clinton/Paul breakdown must be really off.

Especially if we compare it with Biden/Paul.

Why would young voters vote exactly the opposite way like they did in 2012, just because it's Clinton vs. Paul ?

In 2012, it was O+16 and in in 2008 is was O+25 in this age-group in Iowa.

That doesn't make much sense.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,262
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2013, 07:32:20 AM »

The 18-29 Clinton/Paul breakdown must be really off.

Especially if we compare it with Biden/Paul.

Why would young voters vote exactly the opposite way like they did in 2012, just because it's Clinton vs. Paul ?

In 2012, it was O+16 and in in 2008 is was O+25 in this age-group in Iowa.

That doesn't make much sense.

I agree it's most likely off.  PPP's latest national poll had Clinton beating Paul by 21 points among the under 30 age group.  Though that's only 15 points more than she led among the over 65 group, whereas Obama was +23 points among the <30s and -12 points among the >65s for a whopping 35 point differential.  So yes, the age group will presumably shrink (perhaps considerably) without Obama on the ticket, but not as much as shown in this poll.
Logged
King
intermoderate
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,403
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2013, 03:57:27 PM »

Yeah, Biden's not a winner.
Logged
Chocolate Thunder
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,514
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2013, 02:44:36 PM »

I still think that young people think that the Paul name is cool. Namely because they might just want to legalize pot and not get into a war we may not be able to win with volunteer forces. Other than that, Paul is just like any other Republican that is at least as conservative as Bush. In fact, Bush was more anti-war than Gore in 2000. Maybe those issues will be enough or maybe things will look different as we get closer.
Logged
Scott🕷️
Scott
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2013, 02:47:50 PM »

I wonder what it is that's keeping Joe down.  Is Hillary the only one people are willing to look past the age thing with?
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,262
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2013, 05:59:45 PM »

I wonder what it is that's keeping Joe down.  Is Hillary the only one people are willing to look past the age thing with?

Biden is seen as something of a buffoon.  Not ready for primetime.
Logged
Marston
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 446
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2013, 07:16:48 PM »

I suspect that Rand, akin to his father, will/would under perform in Presidential contests.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.147 seconds with 13 queries.