KY-PPP: McConnell leads challengers, but not by much

[publicunofficial]

Via Politico: http://www.politico.com/morningscore/0413/morningscore10392.html

Approve: 36%
Disapprove: 54%



McConnell: 45%
Grimes: 41%

McConnell: 46%
Chandler: 41%

McConnell: 46%
Marksberry: 35%



Those are pretty terrible numbers considering the campaign hasn't even started yet. Grimes or Chandler could beat him if they ran a good campaign.

[Maxwell]

Grimes could beat him, I don't think Chandler could.

[Mehmentum]

This should be a hotly contested race.  McConnell will use everything has to hold on to his seat, but the Dems will be sure to invest a boatload to knock off the Senate Minority Leader.

[DrScholl]

This one is winnable, those sort of approvals make McConnell very vulnerable and it looks like 45-46% could be a ceiling for him. A strong, well-funded campaign by Grimes could be successful.

[Tender Branson]

Poll results:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 35%
Disapprove...................................................... 62%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch McConnell’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 36%
Disapprove...................................................... 54%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Alison Lundergan Grimes?

Favorable........................................................ 28%
Unfavorable .................................................... 22%
Not sure .......................................................... 50%

Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Steve Beshear’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 48%
Disapprove...................................................... 31%

Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Rand Paul’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 46%
Disapprove...................................................... 39%

Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ashley Judd?

Favorable........................................................ 34%
Unfavorable .................................................... 41%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_KY_040913.pdf

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

It can be done.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

This Poll Proves It.....

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Grimes could beat him, I don't think Chandler could.

Even Marksberry could. He's behind now because he's still little-known.

[Miles]

McConnell has $9 million in the bank; that's going to be the biggest challenge, IMO.

[badgate]

Could this be revenge for Daschle?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Could this be revenge for Daschle?

Oh how I wish.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

As long as Grimes can paint a positive narrative and contrast McConnell's image, she'll win.

[Vosem]

Looks like this'll be a legitimately contested race, but unless Obama's approval rating skyrockets immediately before the election I don't think anybody would be able to actually make it across. The difference between Mitch in Kentucky and the vulnerable Democratic Senators posting roughly similar numbers is that Mitch is in a friendly state, where undecideds can be expected to largely be favorable towards his party, but the reverse is true for most of the Democrats. But certainly it seems like Grimes is actually planning to run and she would be a legitimate challenger for McConnell.

If Barrow and Grimes do run -- and they both seem to be leaning towards it -- Democrats will have been quite successful with recruitment on Republican turf, as they're basically the strongest candidates the Ds have in either state. Again, neither will win without a D wave, but they'll suck money away from other races and such could ultimately make all the difference.

Daschle was in a very unfriendly state in a presidential year. McConnell is in a pretty friendly state in a midterm. Reid 2010 is the better analogy, though McConnell has the advantage of the President being of the opposing party (though also the disadvantage, if he runs against Grimes, of having a stronger opponent).

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Looks like this'll be a legitimately contested race, but unless Obama's approval rating skyrockets immediately before the election I don't think anybody would be able to actually make it across. The difference between Mitch in Kentucky and the vulnerable Democratic Senators posting roughly similar numbers is that Mitch is in a friendly state, where undecideds can be expected to largely be favorable towards his party, but the reverse is true for most of the Democrats. But certainly it seems like Grimes is actually planning to run and she would be a legitimate challenger for McConnell.

If Barrow and Grimes do run -- and they both seem to be leaning towards it -- Democrats will have been quite successful with recruitment on Republican turf, as they're basically the strongest candidates the Ds have in either state. Again, neither will win without a D wave, but they'll suck money away from other races and such could ultimately make all the difference.

Daschle was in a very unfriendly state in a presidential year. McConnell is in a pretty friendly state in a midterm. Reid 2010 is the better analogy, though McConnell has the advantage of the President being of the opposing party (though also the disadvantage, if he runs against Grimes, of having a stronger opponent).

But, Daschle was more personally popular in SD than McConnell is his his state.

[illegaloperation]

The problem I see here is that a lot of Republicans will vote for McConnell anyway even if they disapprove of him and that may be more than enough for him to win.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The problem I see here is that a lot of Republicans will vote for McConnell anyway even if they disapprove of him and that may be more than enough for him to win.

What's just as bad is that they'll get violent about it.

[Maxwell]

The problem I see here is that a lot of Republicans will vote for McConnell anyway even if they disapprove of him and that may be more than enough for him to win.

It's not necessarily that, it's that Democrats in Kentucky are so conservative that McConnell will win like 30% of the D vote without trying. What Democrats need to do to win in Kentucky is unite the Democratic base, and I think Grimes could do that in a way that Judd would not have been able too.