when will your state pass same sex marriage?

[Keystone Phil]

I don't agree that it will take Hell freezing over. HockeyDude is right in pointing out that many Republicans in the Philly (and Pittsburgh) suburbs don't care if gays get married. That being said, look at the legislature. This isn't changing anytime soon (assuming we don't consider action in the courts). And I wouldn't point to Philly for votes in favor of gay marriage. Yes, an overwhelming majority would support it and views in historically hostile communities are "evolving" but we have our populist pockets that would still be against it. It wouldn't be an 85% to 15% result. It wouldn't be like Toomey vs. Sestak.

Speaking of that race, I don't think that's proof that PA is less conservative than Grumps thinks. Sestak did well for other reasons.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I don't agree that it will take Hell freezing over. HockeyDude is right in pointing out that many Republicans in the Philly (and Pittsburgh) suburbs don't care if gays get married. That being said, look at the legislature. This isn't changing anytime soon (assuming we don't consider action in the courts). And I wouldn't point to Philly for votes in favor of gay marriage. Yes, an overwhelming majority would support it and views in historically hostile communities are "evolving" but we have our populist pockets that would still be against it. It wouldn't be an 85% to 15% result. It wouldn't be like Toomey vs. Sestak.

Speaking of that race, I don't think that's proof that PA is less conservative than Grumps thinks. Sestak did well for other reasons.

Not saying you are wrong, but elaborate.  That was a GOP wave year, Toomey was doing just fine in the polls and it went down to the wire anyway.  I'm starting to think that pollsters don't quite "get" PA's electorate anymore.  

I make my prediction about SSM being so close in a hypothetical PA vote due to those very same populist pockets you speak of (voting Dem/anti-SSM) being somewhat offset by fiscal conservatives in the 'burbs (voting GOP/pro-SSM).  

Keep in mind, since my parents divorced and my dad moved there in 1998, PA is kind of like a second home for me in a lot of ways.  I'm certainly far from clueless about the state.  Not trying to go all "Naso" on the subject... but I can certainly remember a time where I went with my dad and a ton of his friends from the Philly 'burbs to a campground out in Lancaster (Spring Gulch, have you heard?  It was very nice).  The subject of the 2008 election and politics came up.  The whole lot of them (15-20 middle-aged married people) were pro-McCain, pro-SSM.  Not terribly significant, but certainly a bit of an insight.  

[Keystone Phil]

First of all, Toomey was hammered for his business background/economic beliefs so that doesn't help the argument that PA isn't as socially conservative. Secondly, Sestak played up a more moderate image. The military man constantly wearing his bomber jacket. The decades long registered Independent (because of his time in the military). The outsider (only in DC for four years) that challenged the establishment and won. Sestak's record was unquestionably leftist but that's not how he was seen. These are reasons why I think he did so well plus having a stellar campaign team. I had to go head-to-head with them. They were good.

So I don't think Toomey-Sestak was any proof that the state isn't less socially conservative than people think because the battles weren't really on that front. Not to say we're as conservative as some think. Again, I don't think it will take Hell freezing over for gay marriage to pass here. I just don't think using the Toomey-Sestak comparison is ideal.