2012: Obama/Biden vs Romney/Ryan vs Paul/Johnson

[JRP1994]

Everything occurs as it did in real life, with one difference:

Ron Paul abandons his GOP bid in mid April, and secures the Libertarian Party nomination in early May. He chooses New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson as his running mate.

1) Does Paul/Johnson poll near 15% by October?
2) Is Paul/Johnson included in the debates?

3) If Paul/Johnson is included in the debates, what does the electoral result look like?
4) If they are not included, what does the result look like?

Discuss with maps.

[SPC]

They poll in the 15-20% range for most of the election, possibly meriting inclusion into a debate before the CPD changes their requirements again. Their poll numbers gradually dwindle leading up to Election Day, leading to this outcome:

Obama 48.4%
Romney 42.8%
Paul 8.1%

Hannity, Limbaugh, et al eviscerate Paul for having cost Romney the election.

[MadmanMotley]

Absolute best case scenario for Paul/Johnson, they get into debates:

Obama/Biden 44% 321EV
Romney/Ryan 36%  194EV
Paul/Johnson 20% 23EV

Mostly likely if the get into debates:

Obama/Biden 347EV 46%
Romney/Ryan 185EV 42%
Paul/Johnson 6EV 12%
Paul blamed for Romney's loss, blah blah blah.

[NHI]

Obama/Biden: 347 (47.4%)

Romney/Ryan: 188 (41.5%)

Paul/Johnson: 3 (9.7%)

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Obama/Biden: 361 (48%)
Romney/Ryan: 177 (40%)
Paul/Johnson: 0 (12%)

Though many Republicans blame Paul for Romney's loss, particularly in states like Arizona, Montana, and North Carolina, it is noted by others that Paul also cost Obama many fiscally conservative and socially liberal voters who made several states like Colorado, Virginia, and Illinois closer than expected.