Update Season VII: "The OK Corral"

[WalterMitty]

i *think* bushie may have been referring to the low level jet...or the barrier jet when he said the jet stream is moving in.  anyone's guess, really.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm done with this conversation.  I don't have time to argue pointless rhetoric.  I've got severe weather to track.

And that's what you say when you know you're wrong.  You don't understand it, and it's dangerous to give advice on storms when you don't understand it.  I had this conversation here instead of on Facebook to save you the embarrassment in front of all your non-forum friends.  What you're doing right now is dangerous.  The major threat right now is the western part of the state, and in a couple hours, if the models hold, 0-6 km shear should increase, but I'd be very surprised if OKC gets a warning, unless some things really change over the next couple hours.

You cannot call me dumb or unknowing.  I know what I'm talking about, and I know how to interpret.  I don't know everything, but I know a lot more than you think I know.  Mike Morgan said himself that the air is juicier in Central Oklahoma than it is out west.  Mike Morgan said himself the air is like gasoline right now.  I am saying nothing that Mike Morgan is not saying himself.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If weather is such a passion for Bushie, why didn't he study that in college? Go with that you're passionate about. He could become a Kenyan weatherman!

[patrick1]

If weather is such a passion for Bushie, why didn't he study that in college? Go with that you're passionate about. He could become a Kenyan weatherman!

 Bushie clearly respects geographical boundaries when it comes to weather. He won't just horn in on another man's action and offer up his opinions on the Great Lakes or Kenya. Now how some of choose to worship God is another story.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Jeff, what is an upper level storm?

And how is it that a lack of instability is inhibiting tornado development?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Since he considers himself a native Kenyan and African American, I expect it's okay for him to become their weatherman. He is, after all, a local. It's not like he's a foreigners from Oklahoma coming into the Great Lakes region or vice versa.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

And how are you seeing these as headed toward OKC?  They're too far west:



Also, there is no high risk for tomorrow; it's only moderate just like today.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Jeff, what is an upper level storm?

And how is it that a lack of instability is inhibiting tornado development?

Bad terminology:  It should be Upper-Level Low

Upper-Level Low Definition

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/2/

The instability is extremely high right now, but its just low enough to be inhibiting tornado development.  According to Mike Morgan, the storms should continue to mature as they approach the Metro.  The main threat will be very large hail up to Baseball and Grapefruit possible.  Tomorrow, the severe threat is even worse as Mike Morgan has a high risk bulls-eyed over Oklahoma City.  The low will arrive tomorrow and that will increase the likelihood of strong tornadoes.  Monday, a cold front will approach from the north, and with the low still in place it will trigger another severe weather outbreak basically from the I-44 corridor to the South and East.

[patrick1]

I'm done with this conversation.  I don't have time to argue pointless rhetoric.  I've got severe weather to track.

Inks, Ain't nobody got time for that. Bushie's got work to do.
To the bat cave

[Joe Biden 2020]

And how are you seeing these as headed toward OKC?  They're too far west:



Also, there is no high risk for tomorrow; it's only moderate just like today.

Look at the motion.  They're headed toward the Metro and should arrive between 2000-2200 according to Mike Morgan.

The instability is strong enough that they likely will not weaken before they get here.

[patrick1]

Can I place bets on whether it will rain or not?  Lord knows it will be better than my horse handicapping today.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Jeff, what is an upper level storm?

And how is it that a lack of instability is inhibiting tornado development?

Bad terminology:  It should be Upper-Level Low

Upper-Level Low Definition

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/2/

The instability is extremely high right now, but its just low enough to be inhibiting tornado development.  According to Mike Morgan, the storms should continue to mature as they approach the Metro.  The main threat will be very large hail up to Baseball and Grapefruit possible.  Tomorrow, the severe threat is even worse as Mike Morgan has a high risk bulls-eyed over Oklahoma City.  The low will arrive tomorrow and that will increase the likelihood of strong tornadoes.  Monday, a cold front will approach from the north, and with the low still in place it will trigger another severe weather outbreak basically from the I-44 corridor to the South and East.

WRONG!  Instability isn't the problem.  Those thunderheads are perfectly developed to the point they could support tornadic development.  Looking at radar-indicated heights, there's already an overshooting top on the biggest cells, and heights have leveled off.  The problem is that there's not enough wind shear.  And why do we need wind shear for a tornado to form?

And yes, I know the definition of an upper level low.  But there's a big difference between a "low" and a "storm".

[memphis]

Two key points help to explain the last hour or so of the Update.

watching weather coverage on tv doesn't make one a meteorologist anymore than watching ESPN makes one an athlete.

I don't read books other than the Bible

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Can I place bets on whether it will rain or not?  Lord knows it will be better than my horse handicapping today.

It'll probably rain, but I'll give Jeff 10:1 odds on a $5 bet that OKC proper doesn't get a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning tonight.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Bushie you're as big of dumb as the OK people pretending to be meteorologists.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Can I place bets on whether it will rain or not?  Lord knows it will be better than my horse handicapping today.

It'll probably rain, but I'll give Jeff 10:1 odds on a $5 bet that OKC proper doesn't get a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning tonight.

I seriously doubt Oklahoma County will get a tornado warning at this point, but a severe thunderstorm warning is still a definitely possibility.  There is plenty of juice for these storms to push into the Metro at the same intensity.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

According to the national news, OKC is already under a tornado warning spanning from northern Texas to Kansas City.

[Joe Biden 2020]

According to the national news, OKC is already under a tornado warning spanning from northern Texas to Kansas City.

Correction: Tornado Watch

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

According to the national news, OKC is already under a tornado warning spanning from northern Texas to Kansas City.

I think you mean tornado watch.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Maybe so. I didn't pay too close attention to it. It doesn't effect me at all.

[Joe Biden 2020]

The storm that is most threatening to Oklahoma City is near Mountain View and has a definite low level lock.  There is a definite wall cloud forming and is rapidly strengthening.  This will at least be enough to keep the hail sizes golf ball to tennis ball into the Metro, which its only an hour or two away.  There is a definite possibility of a Tornado Warning with this storm at some point.  The warnings have advanced one county to the east into Caddo County until 1930.  The next counties to the east are Grady and Canadian, which is the west/southwest Oklahoma City Metro.  The storm is about ready to enter SW Caddo County as we speak.

[patrick1]

This forum should have a steel cage, battle royale, loser goes home meteorology match. Snowguy, Bushie, Inks and of course the People's champion Mike Naso.

[Joe Biden 2020]

This forum should have a steel cage, battle royale, loser goes home meteorology match. Snowguy, Bushie, Inks and of course the People's champion Mike Naso.

Don't forget our friend, Frodo!

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

The storm that is most threatening to Oklahoma City is near Mountain View and has a definite low level lock.  There is a definite wall cloud forming and is rapidly strengthening.  This will at least be enough to keep the hail sizes golf ball to tennis ball into the Metro, which its only an hour or two away.  There is a definite possibility of a Tornado Warning with this storm at some point.  The warnings have advanced one county to the east into Caddo County until 1930.  The next counties to the east are Grady and Canadian, which is the west/southwest Oklahoma City Metro.  The storm is about ready to enter SW Caddo County as we speak.

1. What is a low level lock?
2. Who said there's a wall cloud?
3. Hail right now is golf-ball sized, at best.  You're still .75" away from tennis ball.
4. If this hits OKC proper, it'll end up just barely skimming the northwest part of the city.  It may be in the warning box, but I think that'll be out of an abundance of caution; I'd still be surprised if OKC gets actual severe weather.

[Joe Biden 2020]

These storms are starting to form into a line, which would ordinarily turn it from a tornado threat into a more straight line wind and large hail threat.  However, Reed Timmer is inside these storms and reports developing wind shear.  The winds are easily 50-60 mph if not closer to 70.  The Chopper Pilot, Jon Welsh, who is also surveying these storms from the air denotes increasing wind shear and both are right in line to what the radar is showing.  With the increasing wind shear and the extreme instability, nothing can be ruled out.  We are under a Tornado Watch until 2300.  It still will likely remain a wind and hail threat, but we cannot let our guard down for a spin up in one of these storms especially down near Carnegie.